Reads as: riskier than 3.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.57
3.95
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.71
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.32
3.79
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.66
4.01
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
45.4
4.57
0.71
1.05
2.80
4.32
0.6%
2025Q3
92
44.8
4.75
0.79
1.17
2.80
4.57
2.0%
2025Q2
91
45.1
4.77
0.58
1.22
2.97
4.56
0.8%
2025Q1
90
41.8
4.84
0.70
1.21
2.93
4.73
0.0%
2024Q4
92
44.9
4.84
0.67
1.31
2.87
4.63
0.0%
2024Q3
92
45.1
4.56
0.45
1.33
2.79
4.32
0.0%
2024Q2
91
41.6
4.59
0.34
1.28
2.97
4.46
0.0%
2024Q1
91
42.6
4.26
0.39
1.12
2.75
4.02
0.0%
2023Q4
92
41.7
4.32
0.28
1.23
2.81
4.12
0.0%
2023Q3
92
39.0
4.43
0.34
1.29
2.80
4.21
0.0%
2023Q2
91
44.8
3.85
0.44
0.88
2.53
3.54
0.0%
2023Q1
90
46.4
3.80
0.33
0.86
2.60
3.66
0.0%
2022Q4
92
48.2
3.68
0.34
0.81
2.54
3.66
6.0%
2022Q3
92
47.0
3.64
0.44
0.74
2.46
3.30
8.7%
2022Q2
91
42.9
3.89
0.40
0.92
2.57
3.64
14.7%
2022Q1
90
33.7
4.56
0.46
1.08
3.02
4.33
5.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
26
D × 18E × 4F × 4
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-22
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2026-02-13
2026-01-22
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2026-02-13
2026-01-22
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2026-02-13
2026-01-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2026-02-13
2025-04-15
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-05-15
2025-02-13
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2025-03-14
2025-02-13
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2025-03-14
2025-02-13
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-03-14
2025-02-13
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-03-14
2025-02-13
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-03-14
2025-02-13
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-03-14
2025-02-13
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2025-03-14
2025-02-13
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2025-03-14
2025-02-13
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-03-14
2025-02-13
Health
F0802
Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service.
D
2025-03-14
2025-02-13
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-03-14
2025-02-13
Health
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
D
2025-03-14
2025-02-13
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
D
2025-03-14
2025-02-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-03-14
2025-02-13
Health
F0945
Include as part of its infection prevention and control program, mandatory training that includes written standards, policies, and procedures for the program.
F
2025-03-14
2023-04-07
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2023-06-30
2023-04-07
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-06-30
2023-04-07
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
E
2023-06-30
2023-04-07
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2023-06-30
2023-04-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-06-30
2023-04-07
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
F
2023-06-30
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
51
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FRONT PORCH COMMUNITIES AND SERVICES
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
AKOPYAN, GEVORK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-12
current
pecos_ownership
CAIRNS, DAWN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
DURANTEAU, NANCY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORTE, VINCENT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANDY, JOANNE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEISING, MARY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ICHIEN, CHRISTOPHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-06-04
current
pecos_ownership
JACOBS, LAURA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KECK, WILLIAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-08
current
pecos_ownership
KELLY, SEAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-06
current
pecos_ownership
KROEKER, KEVIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCGOVERN, MARION
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCMULLIN, MARY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
OLSON, KARI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROCTOR, DEBORAH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SALVADOR, EDUARDO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SALVADOR, EDUARDO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-10-03
current
pecos_ownership
SKILLMAN, DANIEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
SKILLMAN, DANIEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-05
current
pecos_ownership
TONNU, DIEMLAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VILLARREAL, CHRISTINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-18
current
pecos_ownership
VRANICH, RACHEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-06-17
current
pecos_ownership
WESSON, OLIVER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHITTAKER, SUSAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-23
current
pecos_ownership
ZELK, MISTY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-07-05
current
pecos_ownership
RACHEL VRANICH
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2022-06-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SEAN KELLY
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2023-03-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINA VILLARREAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER ICHIEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-06-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL SKILLMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL SKILLMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAWN CAIRNS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBORAH PROCTOR
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIEMLAN TONNU
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDUARDO SALVADOR
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-10-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDUARDO SALVADOR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEVORK AKOPYAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOANNE HANDY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARI OLSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN KROEKER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA JACOBS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARION MCGOVERN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY HEISING
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY MCMULLIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MISTY ZELK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-07-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NANCY DURANTEAU
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OLIVER WESSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN WHITTAKER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VINCENT FORTE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM KECK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-03-31
$876,586
—
$876,586
—
—
11
—
2024-03-31
$876,586
—
$876,586
—
—
11
—
2023-03-31
$847,418
—
$847,418
—
—
11
—
2022-03-31
$2,541,154
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-03-31
$3,187,148
—
—
—
—
5
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 06097
acs median gross
0
$1,677
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06097
fmr
0
$1,949
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06097
acs median gross
1
$1,666
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06097
fmr
1
$2,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06097
acs median gross
2
$2,207
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06097
fmr
2
$2,827
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06097
acs median gross
3
$2,780
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06097
fmr
3
$3,887
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06097
acs median gross
4
$3,184
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06097
fmr
4
$4,147
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06097
acs median gross
5
$3,345
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06097
acs median gross
$2,158
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06097
acs recent mover gross
$2,385
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95409
acs median gross
0
$1,327
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95409
acs median gross
1
$2,120
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95409
acs median gross
2
$2,542
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95409
acs median gross
3
$2,898
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95409
acs median gross
4
$2,959
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95409
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95409
acs median gross
$2,448
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95409
acs recent mover gross
$3,109
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 95409
payment standard 110
0
$2,453
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95409
payment standard 90
0
$2,007
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95409
safmr
0
$2,230
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95409
payment standard 110
1
$2,717
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95409
payment standard 90
1
$2,223
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95409
safmr
1
$2,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95409
payment standard 110
2
$3,564
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95409
payment standard 90
2
$2,916
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95409
safmr
2
$3,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95409
payment standard 110
3
$4,895
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95409
payment standard 90
3
$4,005
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95409
safmr
3
$4,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95409
payment standard 110
4
$5,225
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95409
payment standard 90
4
$4,275
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95409
safmr
4
$4,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.