Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

1–50

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1	BEARTOOTH REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC	76.9%	100.0	F	MT	COLUMBUS	—	MAZE FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
2	Stonehaven Senior Living	39.4%	100.0	A	CA	FRESNO	—	BAYSHIRE LLC
3	Avoyelles Manor Nursing Home	31.6%	100.0	A	LA	DUPONT	104	—
4	KIT CARSON NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	30.5%	100.0	D	CA	JACKSON	199	—
5	OAKLAND NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	30.2%	100.0	F	MD	OAKLAND	100	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
6	Coventry Operations RI LLC DBA Respiratory and Reh	28.4%	100.0	F	RI	Coventry	210	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
7	PAYSON CARE CENTER	27.9%	100.0	C	AZ	PAYSON	163	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
8	METROPOLIS REHAB & HCC	26.7%	100.0	C	IL	METROPOLIS	101	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
9	COLUMBINE MANOR CARE CENTER	26.3%	100.0	C	CO	SALIDA	112	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
10	Hillcrest Health Care Center	25.7%	100.0	D	IA	Hawarden	64	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
11	LEBANON NORTH NURSING & REHAB	25.6%	99.9	D	MO	LEBANON	180	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
12	RIO HONDO SUBACUTE & NURSING CENTER	25.3%	99.9	C	CA	MONTEBELLO	200	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
13	THE VOSSWOOD NURSING CENTER	24.9%	99.9	F	TX	HOUSTON	224	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
14	Friendship Rehab and Health	24.8%	99.9	D	PA	BEAVER	589	—
15	MARIETTA HEIGHTS POST ACUTE	24.4%	99.9	D	OH	MARIETTA	99	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
16	LARKIN CHASE CENTER	24.1%	99.9	C	MD	BOWIE	120	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
17	LIFE CARE CENTER OF PORT TOWNSEND	23.9%	99.9	D	WA	PORT TOWNSEND	94	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
18	ENVIVE OF RIVER CITY	23.9%	99.9	F	IN	EVANSVILLE	71	PULASKI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
19	Macon Valley Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	23.8%	99.9	C	NC	Franklin	200	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
20	Park Place Healthcare and Rehab	23.3%	99.9	F	OK	Oklahoma City	106	SELECTIS HEALTH INC
21	Accura Healthcare of Cresco	22.6%	99.9	C	IA	Cresco	46	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
22	HERITAGE AT BRANDON PLACE HEALTH & REHABILITATION	22.5%	99.9	C	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	118	QUALITY CARE GIVERS INC
23	NORTHGATE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	22.4%	99.9	C	TX	SAN ANTONIO	120	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
24	Pelican Health at Charlotte	21.7%	99.9	D	NC	Charlotte	120	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
25	FRANCISCAN CARE CTR SYLVANIA	20.7%	99.9	F	OH	TOLEDO	96	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
26	MAISON TECHE NURSING CENTER	20.7%	99.9	B	LA	JEANERETTE	121	—
27	Garden Terrace Healthcare Center of Houston	20.6%	99.9	C	TX	Houston	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
28	LIFE CARE CENTER OF KIRKLAND	20.5%	99.8	C	WA	KIRKLAND	190	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
29	BAY CREST CARE CENTER	20.4%	99.8	C	CA	TORRANCE	80	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
30	SEAVIEW REHABILITATION & WELLNESS CENTER, LP	20.4%	99.8	C	CA	EUREKA	99	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
31	Slaton Care Center	20.2%	99.8	C	TX	Slaton	120	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
32	Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Bloomfield Hill	20.2%	99.8	C	MI	Bloomfield Hills	159	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
33	Alameda Oaks Nursing Center	19.8%	99.8	C	TX	Corpus Christi	146	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
34	DELHAVEN MANOR	19.7%	99.8	C	MO	SAINT LOUIS	156	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
35	WATERS OF CASTLETON SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	19.7%	99.8	D	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	114	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
36	BRIDGEWOOD HEALTH CARE CENTER	19.4%	99.8	D	MO	KANSAS CITY	166	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
37	GARDEN TERRACE HEALTHCARE CENTER OF FORT WORTH	19.3%	99.8	F	TX	FORT WORTH	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
38	VETERANS COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER AT FITZSIMONS	19.0%	99.8	B	CO	AURORA	180	—
39	Avir at Sherman	18.9%	99.8	B	TX	Sherman	132	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
40	Alpine Care of St. Charles LLC	18.5%	99.8	F	IL	SAINT CHARLES	120	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
41	LINDEN GROVE HEALTH CARE CENTER	18.2%	99.8	B	WA	PUYALLUP	130	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
42	HARMONY CARE AT STAMFORD	18.1%	99.8	C	TX	STAMFORD	112	FRIO HOSPITAL DISTRICT
43	LIFE CARE CENTER OF ORLANDO	18.1%	99.8	A	FL	ORLANDO	132	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
44	Avir at Kerrville	18.0%	99.8	F	TX	Kerrville	130	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
45	Life Care Center of Elkhorn	17.9%	99.7	D	NE	Elkhorn	135	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
46	Oakland Manor	17.8%	99.7	D	IA	Oakland	61	10 26 NATIONWIDE TR
47	RENAISSANCE PARK MULTI CARE CENTER	17.7%	99.7	F	TX	FORT WORTH	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
48	Mary Gran Nursing Center	17.7%	99.7	F	NC	Clinton	212	LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
49	GREAT PLAINS NURSING AND REHABILITATION	17.4%	99.7	B	TX	DUMAS	120	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
50	LIFE CARE CENTER OF MOUNT VERNON	17.4%	99.7	D	WA	MOUNT VERNON	121	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC

Showing 1–50 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.