Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

51–100

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
51	Avir at Pampa	17.4%	99.7	C	TX	PAMPA	120	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
52	RIDGE CREST NURSING CENTER	17.3%	99.7	D	MO	WARRENSBURG	120	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
53	Mclean Care Center	17.3%	99.7	B	TX	Mclean	64	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
54	Meeker Manor Rehabilitation Center, LLC	17.3%	99.7	C	MN	LITCHFIELD	65	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
55	SOUTHERN TENN MEDICAL CENTER SNF	17.1%	99.7	A	TN	WINCHESTER	46	ASCENSION HEALTH
56	Grace Care Center of Henrietta	17.0%	99.7	C	TX	Henrietta	60	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
57	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - GOLDEN RULE CARE CENTER	16.9%	99.7	F	IN	RICHMOND	170	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
58	CALLAWAY NURSING HOME	16.7%	99.7	C	OK	SULPHUR	86	—
59	SUNSET HOME	16.6%	99.7	C	MO	MAYSVILLE	60	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
60	LIVINGSTON MANOR CARE CENTER	16.6%	99.7	D	MO	CHILLICOTHE	94	JUCKETTE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
61	NORTH VILLAGE PARK	16.5%	99.6	B	MO	MOBERLY	183	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
62	Mountain View Health Services	16.5%	99.6	F	UT	Ogden	155	—
63	GREENBRIER NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER OF TYLE	16.3%	99.6	C	TX	TYLER	120	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
64	LIFE CARE CENTER OF SIERRA VISTA	16.2%	99.6	C	AZ	SIERRA VISTA	152	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
65	Corinth Rehabilitation Suites on the Parkway	16.2%	99.6	F	TX	Corinth	134	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
66	HERITAGE PARK CARE CENTER	16.2%	99.6	F	CO	CARBONDALE	90	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
67	GRANDVIEW HEALTHCARE CENTER	16.2%	99.6	C	MO	WASHINGTON	102	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
68	UNIVERSITY PARK SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY MEMORY	15.8%	99.6	B	OK	TAHLEQUAH	139	BRIDGES ESOP INC
69	McCall Rehabilitation and Care Center	15.8%	99.6	C	ID	McCall	65	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
70	PREMIER HEALTHCARE OF NEW HARMONY	15.7%	99.6	C	IN	NEW HARMONY	96	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
71	Harmony Park Ridge	15.7%	99.6	F	IL	PARK RIDGE	298	PRIME HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
72	RENAISSANCE MANOR ON CABOT	15.6%	99.6	C	MA	HOLYOKE	61	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
73	CRESTVIEW HOME	15.5%	99.6	C	MO	BETHANY	92	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
74	PRUITTHEALTH - CREEKSIDE	15.5%	99.6	A	GA	AUGUSTA	193	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
75	WATERS OF SULLIVAN NURSING FACILITY, THE	15.5%	99.6	D	IN	SULLIVAN	93	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
76	Huebner Creek Health & Rehabilitation Center	15.4%	99.6	F	TX	San Antonio	146	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
77	NORTHBROOK HEALTHCARE CENTER	15.4%	99.6	C	CA	WILLITS	70	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
78	LIFE CARE CENTER OF SKAGIT VALLEY	15.4%	99.5	F	WA	SEDRO WOOLLEY	150	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
79	Cascades at Senior Rehab	15.4%	99.5	F	TX	Port Arthur	199	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
80	LIFE CARE CENTER OF CARROLLTON	15.3%	99.5	C	MO	CARROLLTON	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
81	HERITAGE HOUSE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	15.3%	99.5	C	TX	ROSEBUD	85	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
82	LIFE CARE CENTER OF GRAY	15.2%	99.5	D	TN	GRAY	133	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
83	AVIR AT CHILDRESS	15.2%	99.5	B	TX	CHILDRESS	120	CHILDRESS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
84	COLUMBIA CREST CENTER	15.2%	99.5	C	WA	MOSES LAKE	111	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
85	HILLSIDE MANOR NURSING HOME	15.1%	99.5	C	IN	WASHINGTON	48	MAJOR HOSPITAL
86	Axiom Gardens of Nashville	15.1%	99.5	F	IL	NASHVILLE	120	LEGACY HEALTH SERVICES INC
87	WINDSOR CARE CENTER OF SACRAMENTO	15.1%	99.5	B	CA	SACRAMENTO	128	9560 PICO LLC
88	Fort Dodge Health and Rehabilitation	15.1%	99.5	B	IA	Fort Dodge	65	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
89	Ivy Creek Wellness & Rehabilitation	15.0%	99.5	F	TX	WACO	162	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
90	LIFE CARE CENTER OF KENNEWICK	15.0%	99.5	F	WA	KENNEWICK	136	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
91	CANON LODGE CARE CENTER	15.0%	99.5	B	CO	CANON CITY	60	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
92	LIFE CARE CENTER OF SCOTTSDALE	15.0%	99.5	D	AZ	SCOTTSDALE	132	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
93	COPPER RIDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	15.0%	99.5	F	MT	BUTTE	186	EDURO HEALTHCARE LLC
94	The Meadows on Sunset Post Acute	14.9%	99.5	C	CA	LOS ANGELES	159	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
95	BROWNSBURG HEALTH CARE CENTER	14.9%	99.4	D	IN	BROWNSBURG	160	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
96	Bel Aire Center	14.8%	99.4	C	VT	Newport	58	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
97	WOODLANDS SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	14.8%	99.4	B	OK	OKMULGEE	114	BRIDGES ESOP INC
98	Discovery Rehabilitation and Living	14.8%	99.4	C	ID	Salmon	45	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
99	Bridgeview Estates	14.8%	99.4	B	ID	Twin Falls	116	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
100	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF MONTEAGLE REHAB & WELLNESS	14.8%	99.4	C	TN	MONTEAGLE	150	WHEATEN LLC

Showing 51–100 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.