Reads as: riskier than 56.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
18 chains
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
286 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
UT median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.68
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.12
0.78
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.20
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.87
3.25
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
85.4
3.68
1.12
0.42
2.15
3.20
0.1%
2025Q3
92
77.7
3.65
0.99
0.38
2.28
3.47
0.3%
2025Q2
91
78.4
3.41
0.95
0.27
2.20
3.38
6.8%
2025Q1
90
77.0
3.56
0.93
0.37
2.26
3.53
4.5%
2024Q4
92
76.8
3.61
0.86
0.41
2.34
3.44
1.9%
2024Q3
92
76.6
3.72
0.87
0.43
2.43
3.59
1.8%
2024Q2
91
78.4
3.63
0.90
0.40
2.33
3.41
3.4%
2024Q1
91
75.8
3.56
0.84
0.44
2.29
3.39
2.6%
2023Q4
92
76.8
3.34
0.75
0.47
2.12
3.38
4.9%
2023Q3
92
77.1
3.43
0.82
0.47
2.14
3.15
1.9%
2023Q2
91
79.7
3.46
0.72
0.52
2.21
3.26
0.0%
2023Q1
90
78.5
3.52
0.78
0.48
2.26
3.35
0.0%
2022Q4
92
75.6
3.46
0.86
0.48
2.13
3.37
0.0%
2022Q3
92
75.2
3.59
0.83
0.49
2.27
3.48
0.0%
2022Q2
91
71.5
3.30
0.83
0.54
1.94
3.17
0.0%
2022Q1
90
73.9
3.09
0.79
0.52
1.78
2.90
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2025-08-29
2025-07-23
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2025-08-29
2025-07-23
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-08-29
2025-07-23
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-08-29
2025-07-23
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-08-29
2023-10-10
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-10-25
2023-10-10
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2023-10-30
2023-10-10
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-10-25
2021-11-18
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2022-01-07
2021-11-18
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2022-01-07
2021-11-18
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2022-01-07
2021-11-18
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2022-01-07
2021-11-18
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2022-01-07
2021-11-18
Health
F0773
Provide or obtain laboratory tests/services when ordered and promptly tell the ordering practitioner of the results.
D
2022-01-07
2021-11-18
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2022-01-07
2021-11-18
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2022-01-07
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
22
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CARRERA, RORY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
CURSUS HEALTHCARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
CURSUS HEALTHCARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
GILLESPIE, DEBORAH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-10-25
current
pecos_ownership
HOWELLS, STEPHEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-10-25
current
pecos_ownership
KANE COUNTY HUMAN RESOURCE SPECIAL SERVICE DISTRICT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-09
current
pecos_ownership
KANE COUNTY HUMAN RESOURCE SPECIAL SERVICE DISTRICT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-25
current
pecos_ownership
LOVELESS, KURT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-10-25
current
pecos_ownership
WOOD, ZACHARY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
KANE COUNTY HUMAN RESOURCE SPECIAL SERVICE DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2017-12-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STONEHENGE OF AMERICAN FORK, LC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2017-12-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STONEHENGE OF AMERICAN FORK, LC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2021-10-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CORY ROBISON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
47%
2021-10-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WYATT CLOWARD
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
47%
2017-12-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TYSON CICHOS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2017-12-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CORY ROBISON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBORAH GILLESPIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KACIE KEELE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KURT LOVELESS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RORY CARRERA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-12-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN HOWELLS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$478,354
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$487,279
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$412,843
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$321,063
—
—
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$301,305
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
1
Close date
Price
Buyer
Seller
Evidence
2017-12-11
—
KANE COUNTY HUMAN RESOURCE SPECIAL SERVICE DISTRICT
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 49049
acs median gross
0
$1,379
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49049
fmr
0
$1,257
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49049
acs median gross
1
$1,181
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49049
fmr
1
$1,265
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49049
acs median gross
2
$1,303
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49049
fmr
2
$1,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49049
acs median gross
3
$1,774
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49049
fmr
3
$2,031
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49049
acs median gross
4
$2,013
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49049
fmr
4
$2,449
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49049
acs median gross
5
$2,268
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49049
acs median gross
$1,541
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49049
acs recent mover gross
$1,663
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84003
acs median gross
1
$1,446
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84003
acs median gross
2
$1,533
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84003
acs median gross
3
$1,930
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84003
acs median gross
4
$1,897
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84003
acs median gross
5
$3,065
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84003
acs median gross
$1,721
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84003
acs recent mover gross
$1,755
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 84003
payment standard 110
0
$1,606
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84003
payment standard 90
0
$1,314
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84003
safmr
0
$1,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84003
payment standard 110
1
$1,617
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84003
payment standard 90
1
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84003
safmr
1
$1,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84003
payment standard 110
2
$1,870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84003
payment standard 90
2
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84003
safmr
2
$1,700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84003
payment standard 110
3
$2,596
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84003
payment standard 90
3
$2,124
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84003
safmr
3
$2,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84003
payment standard 110
4
$3,135
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84003
payment standard 90
4
$2,565
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84003
safmr
4
$2,850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.