Composite
52.0 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 72.6 | 48.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 16.75 | in index |
| staffing risk | 70.8 | 70.8 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 13.62 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 51.7 | 41.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.93 | in index |
| financial risk | 19.3 | 26.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 4.45 | in index |
| chow risk | 20.5 | 19.8 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 2.37 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 48.9 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 14.7 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 26.5 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.4 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 41.1 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 70.8 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 55.3 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 35.3 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 34.9 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 32.6 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 40.9 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 40.9 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 70.8 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 70.8 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Occupancy | 0.80 | -0.30 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Occupancy | 0.80 | -0.23 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 7.00 | +0.13 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.11 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | OH median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.97 | 3.24 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.24 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.03 | 3.11 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.94 | 3.29 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 77.0 | 2.97 | 0.24 | 0.87 | 1.85 | 3.03 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 75.0 | 3.44 | 0.31 | 0.89 | 2.24 | 3.10 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 75.1 | 3.40 | 0.43 | 0.93 | 2.04 | 2.93 | 0.4% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 74.2 | 3.20 | 0.41 | 0.77 | 2.01 | 2.97 | 1.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 82.0 | 3.09 | 0.34 | 0.76 | 1.99 | 2.93 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 84.9 | 3.01 | 0.35 | 0.77 | 1.89 | 2.79 | 0.1% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 81.6 | 3.02 | 0.25 | 0.81 | 1.96 | 2.86 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 83.3 | 3.29 | 0.24 | 0.78 | 2.27 | 3.15 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 81.6 | 3.54 | 0.24 | 0.80 | 2.50 | 3.35 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 82.1 | 3.08 | 0.28 | 0.74 | 2.06 | 2.83 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 81.5 | 2.81 | 0.24 | 0.67 | 1.90 | 2.53 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 82.3 | 2.91 | 0.23 | 0.81 | 1.87 | 2.74 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 84.2 | 2.94 | 0.28 | 0.74 | 1.91 | 2.72 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 85.1 | 3.00 | 0.29 | 0.71 | 2.00 | 2.80 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 87.0 | 2.97 | 0.29 | 0.66 | 2.02 | 2.79 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 84.4 | 2.83 | 0.14 | 0.85 | 1.83 | 2.81 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-11 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2025-09-30 |
| 2025-09-11 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-09-30 |
| 2025-09-11 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-09-30 |
| 2025-09-11 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-09-30 |
| 2025-09-11 | Health · complaint | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-09-30 |
| 2025-09-11 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2025-09-30 |
| 2025-09-11 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2025-09-30 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | B | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | B | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | F | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0835 | Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently. | F | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | E | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health | F0887 | Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status. | F | 2025-03-21 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2024-07-09 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-07-09 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health · complaint | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | D | 2024-07-09 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-03-15 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-03-15 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2024-03-15 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-03-15 |
| 2021-07-22 | Health | F0646 | Notify the appropriate authorities when residents with MD or ID services has a significant change in condition. | D | 2021-08-06 |
| 2021-07-22 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2021-08-06 |
| 2021-07-22 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2021-08-06 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PETER BERNHARAT | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 23% | 2021-11-09 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ROBERT WICKES ESTATE | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 23% | — | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JENNIFER PENNY | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 9% | — | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RAYMOND HEPHNER | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 7% | — | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JAMES JOSEPH | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 7% | — | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JAMES RINGER | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 5% | — | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| STEVEN HEISER | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 5% | — | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RONALD PAPAJCIK | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 2% | — | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| AARON HANDLER | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2009-05-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | SAPPHIRE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 113 | SAPPHIRE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF POINT PLACE | — | — | — | 82 | POINT PLACE OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF NEW LEXINGTON | — | — | — | 82 | NEW LEXINGTON OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Atrium Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | ATRIUM OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Inniswood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | FHS INNISWOOD, INC. |
| 2024-12-31 | COMMUNITY SKILLED HEALTHCARE | — | — | — | 110 | CS OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF PERRYSBURG | — | — | — | 75 | PERRYSBURG OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | GRAFTON OAKS NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | GO OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF KENT | — | — | — | 74 | KENT OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | Chardon Woods | — | — | — | 161 | CHARDON WOODS OF JOURNEY LLC |
| 2024-12-16 | The Pavilion at Canal Fulton for Nursing and Rehab | — | — | — | 60 | PAVILION AT CANAL FULTON LLC |
| 2024-12-02 | BENNINGTON GLEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 79 | FHS BENNINGTON INC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 39093 | acs median gross | 0 | $599 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39093 | fmr | 0 | $933 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39093 | acs median gross | 1 | $734 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39093 | fmr | 1 | $1,058 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39093 | acs median gross | 2 | $966 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39093 | fmr | 2 | $1,279 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39093 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,129 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39093 | fmr | 3 | $1,646 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39093 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,175 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39093 | fmr | 4 | $1,760 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39093 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,391 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39093 | acs median gross | $966 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 39093 | acs recent mover gross | $1,070 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 44039 | acs median gross | 1 | $775 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44039 | acs median gross | 2 | $985 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44039 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,601 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44039 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,087 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44039 | acs median gross | $1,116 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 44039 | acs recent mover gross | $1,725 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 44039 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,056 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44039 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $864 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44039 | safmr | 0 | $960 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44039 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,199 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44039 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $981 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44039 | safmr | 1 | $1,090 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44039 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,452 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44039 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,188 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44039 | safmr | 2 | $1,320 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44039 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,870 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44039 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,530 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44039 | safmr | 3 | $1,700 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44039 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,002 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44039 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,638 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44039 | safmr | 4 | $1,820 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |