Composite
67.0 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 82.3 | 79.2 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 24.69 | in index |
| financial risk | 49.7 | 45.3 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 14.91 | in index |
| staffing risk | 36.4 | 36.4 | 0.25 | 0.2500 | 9.10 | in index |
| chow risk | 40.5 | 46.7 | 0.15 | 0.1500 | 6.08 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 23.1 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 70.2 | D | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 45.3 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.4 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 79.2 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 36.4 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 64.7 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 45.9 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 79.1 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 79.1 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 36.4 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 36.4 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Occupancy | 0.84 | -0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -4.00 | +0.15 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -4.00 | -1.89 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 2.00 | +1.06 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.84 | -0.39 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 3.47 | +0.18 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.52 | 3.95 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.33 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.73 | 3.79 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.43 | 4.01 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 26.1 | 3.52 | 0.33 | 0.74 | 2.45 | 3.73 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 27.3 | 3.42 | 0.40 | 0.63 | 2.39 | 3.65 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 22.4 | 3.56 | 0.51 | 0.80 | 2.24 | 3.77 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 15.1 | 5.32 | 0.83 | 1.07 | 3.42 | 5.67 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 11.3 | 7.52 | 1.54 | 1.55 | 4.43 | 7.71 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 10.6 | 8.39 | 2.26 | 1.31 | 4.82 | 8.57 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 16.6 | 5.40 | 1.60 | 0.63 | 3.16 | 5.40 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 23.9 | 3.55 | 0.99 | 0.39 | 2.17 | 3.66 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 22.7 | 3.70 | 0.94 | 0.52 | 2.23 | 3.77 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 14.2 | 5.63 | 1.24 | 0.75 | 3.64 | 5.59 | 0.4% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 22.2 | 3.75 | 0.79 | 0.53 | 2.43 | 3.74 | 13.9% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 17.8 | 4.55 | 0.92 | 0.61 | 3.02 | 4.63 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 10.6 | 7.29 | 1.28 | 0.98 | 5.03 | 7.46 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-10 | Fine | $66,134 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-04-10 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Health · complaint | F0565 | Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility. | E | 2026-03-19 |
| 2026-03-05 | Health · complaint | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | E | 2026-03-19 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | E | 2025-06-16 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2025-06-16 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0638 | Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months. | E | 2025-06-16 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | E | 2025-06-16 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | F | 2025-06-16 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | E | 2025-06-16 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-06-16 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-06-16 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0882 | Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home. | D | 2025-06-16 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2025-06-16 |
| 2025-05-08 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-06-08 |
| 2025-05-08 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-06-08 |
| 2024-04-10 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | G | 2024-05-09 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0565 | Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility. | F | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | E | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0638 | Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months. | E | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | E | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | F | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | F | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | F | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | F | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | F | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0908 | Keep all essential equipment working safely. | F | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | F | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | F | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-10-13 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | G | 2023-10-31 |
| 2021-06-16 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | D | 2021-06-28 |
| 2021-06-16 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2021-06-28 |
| 2021-06-16 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2021-06-28 |
| 2021-06-16 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2021-06-28 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANTIAGO, MARILYN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2006-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MMS QUALITY NURSING SERVICES, INC. | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2006-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MMS QUALITY NURSING SERVICES, INC. | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-05-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SANTIAGO-CADE, ADORA ROSE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2006-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SANTIAGO-SO, RUBY ANN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2020-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SANTIAGO-SO, RUBY ANN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2019-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SANTIAGO, EDWARD | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2006-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SANTIAGO, MARILYN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2006-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SNIPES, TYRONE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2012-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WELDEN, ELNA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2006-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MARILYN SANTIAGO | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 2006-12-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARILYN SANTIAGO | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2006-10-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ADORA ROSE SANTIAGO-CADE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 25% | 2006-12-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| EDWARD SANTIAGO | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2006-12-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ELNA WELDEN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2006-12-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RUBY ANN SANTIAGO-SO | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2019-11-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RUBY ANN SANTIAGO-SO | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2020-11-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TYRONE SNIPES | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2012-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Turlock Nursing & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 144 | TRACY RIDGE HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | ALAMITOS WEST HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | MALCOLM HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | PACIFIC HAVEN SUBACUTE AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | STRAWBERRY POND HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-16 | GOLDEN HARBOR HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | CEYLON HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | GRASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | HEISMAN LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 144 | SOQUEL CARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | OAK GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 119 | 4545 SHELLEY COURT OPCO, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING - FREMONT | — | — | — | 99 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING-FREMONT, LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | OAKHURST SKILLED CARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | THE BRADLEY GARDENS | — | — | — | 44 | GHC OF SAN JACINTO LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | SANTA FE POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 187 | SKILLED BOBIER LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | BAYSHIRE SAN DIMAS POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 45 | SKILLED SAN DIMAS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 06001 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,746 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06001 | fmr | 0 | $2,142 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06001 | acs median gross | 1 | $2,046 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06001 | fmr | 1 | $2,385 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06001 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,552 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06001 | fmr | 2 | $2,912 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06001 | acs median gross | 3 | $3,051 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06001 | fmr | 3 | $3,724 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06001 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06001 | fmr | 4 | $4,413 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06001 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,410 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06001 | acs median gross | $2,357 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 06001 | acs recent mover gross | $2,636 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 94705 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,344 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 94705 | acs median gross | 1 | $2,420 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 94705 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,661 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 94705 | acs median gross | 3 | $3,042 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 94705 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 94705 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 94705 | acs median gross | $2,441 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 94705 | acs recent mover gross | $2,414 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 94705 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $2,321 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94705 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,899 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94705 | safmr | 0 | $2,110 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94705 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,585 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94705 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $2,115 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94705 | safmr | 1 | $2,350 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94705 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $3,157 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94705 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,583 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94705 | safmr | 2 | $2,870 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94705 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $4,037 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94705 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $3,303 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94705 | safmr | 3 | $3,670 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94705 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $4,785 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94705 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $3,915 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94705 | safmr | 4 | $4,350 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |