Composite
68.0 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 90.3 | 87.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.84 | in index |
| financial risk | 69.6 | 58.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 16.06 | in index |
| billing conduct | 35.9 | 34.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 8.28 | in index |
| chow risk | 58.7 | 57.1 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 6.77 | in index |
| staffing risk | 16.6 | 16.7 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 3.19 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 43% fined | ERLICHMAN ARIEL | 7 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 34.2 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 89.3 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 58.9 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 11.5 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 87.9 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 16.7 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 86.0 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 66.0 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 52.5 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 62.6 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 87.9 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 87.9 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 16.7 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 16.7 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Contract staffing share | 0.79 | +1.13 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.03 | -0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 12.00 | -0.80 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.79 | +0.76 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 10.83 | -0.61 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.03 | -0.34 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.70 | +0.30 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | VT median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.03 | 3.66 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.48 | 0.54 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.67 | 3.46 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.17 | 3.81 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 114.7 | 4.03 | 0.48 | 1.08 | 2.47 | 3.67 | 79.1% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 114.0 | 3.86 | 0.46 | 1.03 | 2.37 | 3.57 | 79.8% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 105.2 | 3.89 | 0.54 | 1.01 | 2.34 | 3.62 | 79.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 97.5 | 3.83 | 0.53 | 1.07 | 2.23 | 3.54 | 70.9% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 93.3 | 3.33 | 0.32 | 1.32 | 1.69 | 3.20 | 60.2% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 100.8 | 3.37 | 0.37 | 1.24 | 1.76 | 3.16 | 70.6% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 98.7 | 3.42 | 0.53 | 1.05 | 1.84 | 3.28 | 59.4% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 92.8 | 3.56 | 0.62 | 0.97 | 1.97 | 3.42 | 56.2% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 92.4 | 3.61 | 0.67 | 0.90 | 2.05 | 3.50 | 49.1% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 76.7 | 3.85 | 0.71 | 1.05 | 2.10 | 3.70 | 33.9% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 71.1 | 4.68 | 0.78 | 1.36 | 2.54 | 4.38 | 46.8% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 84.2 | 4.13 | 0.59 | 1.20 | 2.33 | 3.84 | 47.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 99.4 | 3.73 | 0.33 | 1.18 | 2.23 | 3.54 | 51.6% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 109.8 | 3.61 | 0.30 | 1.26 | 2.04 | 3.39 | 52.2% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 103.0 | 3.64 | 0.27 | 1.33 | 2.04 | 3.46 | 73.9% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 98.3 | 3.56 | 0.21 | 1.17 | 2.19 | 3.44 | 75.1% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | Fine | $50,400 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-05-29 | Fine | $12,529 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-10-11 | Fine | $73,255 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2026-03-18 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2026-01-16 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2026-01-16 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | G | 2026-01-16 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2026-01-16 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | G | 2026-01-16 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2026-01-16 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | F | 2026-01-16 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health | F0809 | Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times. | F | 2026-01-16 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2026-01-16 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2026-01-16 |
| 2025-12-12 | Health · complaint | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2026-01-02 |
| 2025-05-20 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-06-09 |
| 2025-05-20 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-06-09 |
| 2024-12-04 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2025-01-18 |
| 2024-12-04 | Health | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | E | 2025-01-18 |
| 2024-12-04 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2025-01-18 |
| 2024-12-04 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | D | 2025-01-18 |
| 2024-12-04 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-01-18 |
| 2024-12-04 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | F | 2025-01-18 |
| 2024-12-04 | Health · complaint | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2025-01-18 |
| 2024-12-04 | Health | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | B | 2025-01-18 |
| 2024-07-17 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2024-09-03 |
| 2024-07-17 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2024-09-03 |
| 2024-07-17 | Health · complaint | F0776 | Provide timely, approved x-ray services, or have an agreement with an approved provider to obtain them. | D | 2024-09-03 |
| 2024-07-17 | Health · complaint | F0802 | Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service. | F | 2024-09-03 |
| 2024-07-17 | Health · complaint | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | F | 2024-09-03 |
| 2024-07-17 | Health · complaint | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | F | 2024-09-03 |
| 2024-06-12 | Health · complaint | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | E | 2024-07-07 |
| 2024-05-29 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2024-05-15 |
| 2024-05-29 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | G | 2024-05-15 |
| 2023-10-13 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2023-11-04 |
| 2023-10-13 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2023-11-04 |
| 2023-09-13 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | D | 2023-09-29 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BURLINGTON OPCO HOLDINGS LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2024-12-18 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ERLICHMAN, ARIEL | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2024-12-18 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HOLLERAND, RONALD | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-02-03 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HOLLERAND, RONALD | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-12-18 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PITCHER, MARK | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-12-18 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PITCHER, MARK | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-02-04 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RAINDEL, YEHUDA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-12-18 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RUBIN, ALTER | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-12-18 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WYNER, MOSHE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-12-18 | current | pecos_ownership |
| 300 PEARL STREET PROPERTY LLC | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | — | 2020-10-01 | ended 2021-09-30 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-18 | Rutland Healthcare & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 103 | 46 NICHOLS STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2021-06-01 | Center for Living & Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 130 | CLR OPCO LLC |
| 2018-12-17 | Elderwood at Burlington | — | — | — | 150 | 98 STARR FARM ROAD OPERATING COMPANY, LLC |
| 2018-12-14 | Birchwood Terrace Rehab & Healthcare | — | — | — | 160 | BIRCHWOOD OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 50007 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,244 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 50007 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,427 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 50007 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,727 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 50007 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,137 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 50007 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,128 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 50007 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,375 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 50007 | acs median gross | $1,646 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 50007 | acs recent mover gross | $1,807 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 05401 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,459 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 05401 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,433 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 05401 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,771 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 05401 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,232 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 05401 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,711 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 05401 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,417 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 05401 | acs median gross | $1,665 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 05401 | acs recent mover gross | $1,843 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 05401 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,804 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05401 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,476 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05401 | safmr | 0 | $1,640 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05401 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,991 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05401 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,629 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05401 | safmr | 1 | $1,810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05401 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,574 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05401 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,106 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05401 | safmr | 2 | $2,340 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05401 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $3,300 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05401 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,700 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05401 | safmr | 3 | $3,000 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05401 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,410 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05401 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,790 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05401 | safmr | 4 | $3,100 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |