Reads as: riskier than 21.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.34
3.24
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.36
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.00
3.11
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.47
3.29
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
52.4
3.34
0.36
0.78
2.20
3.00
0.0%
2025Q3
92
55.3
3.17
0.29
0.81
2.08
3.00
0.0%
2025Q2
91
56.3
3.12
0.26
0.81
2.05
2.97
0.0%
2025Q1
90
53.9
3.31
0.31
0.78
2.22
3.19
0.3%
2024Q4
92
54.8
3.28
0.37
0.74
2.17
3.14
0.2%
2024Q3
92
56.1
3.20
0.40
0.70
2.10
2.99
0.2%
2024Q2
91
54.3
3.20
0.43
0.69
2.09
2.83
0.0%
2024Q1
91
44.4
3.69
0.49
0.78
2.42
3.19
0.0%
2023Q4
92
40.6
3.61
0.34
1.02
2.24
3.10
5.6%
2023Q3
92
40.0
3.17
0.20
0.98
1.99
2.71
9.5%
2023Q2
91
41.2
3.29
0.29
0.91
2.09
3.04
17.5%
2023Q1
90
39.5
3.12
0.26
0.91
1.95
2.94
8.7%
2022Q4
92
41.3
2.96
0.24
0.81
1.91
2.65
6.2%
2022Q3
92
39.5
3.02
0.26
0.79
1.96
2.88
4.0%
2022Q2
91
38.8
3.08
0.36
0.71
2.01
2.86
0.0%
2022Q1
90
40.5
3.07
0.28
0.81
1.98
2.86
1.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
11
C × 1D × 8E × 1F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-04-02
Health · complaint
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
D
2025-05-13
2024-01-18
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-02-27
2024-01-18
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
F
2024-02-27
2021-05-06
Health
F0570
Assure the security of all personal funds of residents deposited with the facility.
E
2021-06-20
2021-05-06
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2021-06-20
2021-05-06
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2021-06-20
2021-05-06
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2021-06-20
2021-05-06
Health
F0770
Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.
D
2021-06-20
2021-05-06
Health
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
C
2021-06-11
2019-09-05
Health
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
D
2019-09-21
2019-09-05
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2019-09-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
22
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
HICKSVILLE HEALTH FACILITIES
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
HICKSVILLE HEALTH FACILITIES
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
WHITE, MARK
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
45%
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAGLEY, JON
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MYERS, MARK
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE, NICOLAUS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
GEHL, JACOB
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCCLEERY, MARK
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE, CAROL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRADFORD, MARTHA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
VANCREST MANAGEMENT CORP.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE, CLAIRE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
VANCREST OF HICKSVILLE
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
MARK WHITE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
45%
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JON BAGLEY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK MYERS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICOLAUS WHITE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CAROL WHITE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACOB GEHL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK MCCLEERY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CLAIRE WHITE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARTHA BRADFORD
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,058,760
—
$219,811
—
—
9
propco
2023-12-31
$229,588
—
$187,211
—
—
9
propco
2022-12-31
$199,403
—
—
—
—
10
propco
2021-12-31
$154,414
—
—
—
—
10
—
2021-03-31
$109,608
—
—
—
—
0
—
2020-12-31
$438,428
—
—
—
—
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 39039
acs median gross
0
$642
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39039
fmr
0
$754
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39039
acs median gross
1
$698
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39039
fmr
1
$799
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39039
acs median gross
2
$845
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39039
fmr
2
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39039
acs median gross
3
$888
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39039
fmr
3
$1,239
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39039
acs median gross
4
$1,272
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39039
fmr
4
$1,408
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39039
acs median gross
$846
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39039
acs recent mover gross
$860
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 43526
acs median gross
1
$606
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 43526
acs median gross
2
$788
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 43526
acs median gross
3
$776
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 43526
acs median gross
$777
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 43526
payment standard 110
0
$825
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43526
payment standard 90
0
$675
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43526
safmr
0
$750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43526
payment standard 110
1
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43526
payment standard 90
1
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43526
safmr
1
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43526
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43526
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43526
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43526
payment standard 110
3
$1,353
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43526
payment standard 90
3
$1,107
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43526
safmr
3
$1,230
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43526
payment standard 110
4
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43526
payment standard 90
4
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43526
safmr
4
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.