2300 Watkins Lake Rd, Waterford, MI 48328 · CCN 235252
Composite
59.0 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
80
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 59.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MI median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.61
3.52
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.57
0.47
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.58
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.62
3.61
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
70.4
3.61
0.57
0.95
2.08
3.58
0.0%
2025Q3
92
69.9
3.57
0.56
0.98
2.03
3.46
0.2%
2025Q2
91
72.9
3.51
0.64
0.83
2.04
3.44
1.2%
2025Q1
90
72.0
3.40
0.58
0.82
2.00
3.36
1.1%
2024Q4
92
69.3
3.47
0.60
0.86
2.01
3.53
1.6%
2024Q3
92
70.4
3.42
0.52
0.86
2.04
3.47
1.2%
2024Q2
91
70.9
3.53
0.55
0.92
2.05
3.46
0.0%
2024Q1
91
70.3
3.44
0.49
0.94
2.01
3.44
0.0%
2023Q4
92
71.4
3.44
0.48
0.91
2.05
3.47
0.0%
2023Q3
92
70.1
3.55
0.43
0.98
2.15
3.52
0.0%
2023Q2
91
69.1
3.57
0.30
1.09
2.18
3.59
0.1%
2023Q1
90
73.1
3.48
0.36
1.01
2.11
3.44
0.6%
2022Q4
92
73.3
3.34
0.39
0.89
2.07
3.28
3.1%
2022Q3
92
74.1
3.94
0.44
0.91
2.58
3.93
13.8%
2022Q2
91
68.5
3.87
0.55
0.84
2.49
3.79
7.1%
2022Q1
90
68.8
3.79
0.55
0.85
2.39
3.81
3.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-09-19
2024-07-23
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-08-06
2024-07-23
Health
F0770
Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.
D
2024-08-06
2024-07-23
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-08-06
2024-07-23
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-08-06
2023-08-24
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2023-09-13
2023-08-24
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2023-09-13
2023-08-24
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-09-13
2023-08-24
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2023-09-13
2023-08-24
Health
F0694
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
D
2023-09-13
2023-08-24
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-09-13
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
40
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ACHO, RICHARD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-10-10
current
pecos_ownership
ACHO, RICHARD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
ACHO, RICHARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
ASDELL, ERIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
AZIZ, NADA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-02
current
pecos_ownership
AZIZ, NADA
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
BACHMAN, JANICE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOAL, JAMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
DOMINICAN SISTERS OF PEACE INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-02
current
pecos_ownership
GIFFORD, LINDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-10-13
current
pecos_ownership
HOLDEN, MARGARET
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEFEVRE, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MANUSZAK, JOSEPH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
MARTIN, PEGGY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCGEE, MAUREEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-02
current
pecos_ownership
MCGEE, MAUREEN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MENDELSON, BARBARA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-09-20
current
pecos_ownership
NOONE, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
PROPSON, PAUL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
TWOHILL, PATRICIA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-08-05
current
pecos_ownership
BARBARA MENDELSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2011-09-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINDA GIFFORD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2014-10-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MAUREEN MCGEE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2018-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA TWOHILL
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2015-08-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD ACHO
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2022-10-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD ACHO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2017-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOMINICAN SISTERS OF PEACE INC
OTHER
0%
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NADA AZIZ
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
0%
2018-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIN ASDELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES BOAL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JANICE BACHMAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN NOONE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-04-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH MANUSZAK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-11-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARGARET HOLDEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MAUREEN MCGEE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL LEFEVRE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NADA AZIZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL PROPSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PEGGY MARTIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD ACHO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 26125
acs median gross
0
$1,043
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26125
fmr
0
$1,009
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26125
acs median gross
1
$1,122
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26125
fmr
1
$1,122
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26125
acs median gross
2
$1,466
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26125
fmr
2
$1,411
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26125
acs median gross
3
$1,728
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26125
fmr
3
$1,724
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26125
acs median gross
4
$2,152
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26125
fmr
4
$1,868
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26125
acs median gross
5
$1,881
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26125
acs median gross
$1,376
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26125
acs recent mover gross
$1,492
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48328
acs median gross
0
$781
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48328
acs median gross
1
$929
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48328
acs median gross
2
$1,174
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48328
acs median gross
3
$1,438
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48328
acs median gross
4
$2,119
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48328
acs median gross
$1,102
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48328
acs recent mover gross
$1,026
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 48328
payment standard 110
0
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48328
payment standard 90
0
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48328
safmr
0
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48328
payment standard 110
1
$1,177
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48328
payment standard 90
1
$963
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48328
safmr
1
$1,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48328
payment standard 110
2
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48328
payment standard 90
2
$1,215
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48328
safmr
2
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48328
payment standard 110
3
$1,815
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48328
payment standard 90
3
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48328
safmr
3
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48328
payment standard 110
4
$1,969
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48328
payment standard 90
4
$1,611
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48328
safmr
4
$1,790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.