Composite
40.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 79.7 | 76.3 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 34.16 | in index |
| staffing risk | 17.2 | 17.3 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 6.14 | in index |
| chow risk | 21.4 | 24.8 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 4.59 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 24.8 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.6 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.6 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 76.3 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 17.3 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 76.2 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 76.2 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 17.3 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 17.3 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.01 | -0.19 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 3.69 | +0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 10.10 | -0.56 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.01 | -0.33 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 9.00 | -0.24 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.46 | +0.19 | |
| Penalties, last 12 months | 2.00 | -0.17 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MI median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.01 | 3.52 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.02 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.41 | 3.32 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.24 | 3.61 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 27.7 | 4.01 | 0.02 | 1.02 | 2.96 | 3.41 | 4.9% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 28.4 | 3.84 | 0.06 | 0.86 | 2.92 | 3.39 | 4.4% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 28.7 | 3.69 | 0.03 | 0.89 | 2.77 | 3.38 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 30.4 | 3.21 | 0.06 | 0.82 | 2.33 | 3.07 | 1.1% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 28.4 | 3.55 | 0.00 | 0.97 | 2.57 | 3.39 | 2.2% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 25.3 | 3.93 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 2.93 | 3.75 | 4.8% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 22.6 | 3.95 | 0.00 | 1.14 | 2.81 | 3.80 | 7.8% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 23.1 | 4.13 | 0.03 | 1.10 | 3.00 | 3.88 | 22.4% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 21.6 | 4.31 | 0.65 | 0.95 | 2.71 | 3.81 | 27.2% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 19.5 | 4.80 | 0.69 | 0.89 | 3.21 | 4.40 | 32.7% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 20.2 | 4.19 | 0.36 | 0.98 | 2.85 | 4.01 | 44.9% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 21.5 | 4.14 | 0.38 | 1.04 | 2.72 | 3.82 | 51.8% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 23.1 | 3.84 | 0.25 | 1.11 | 2.48 | 3.54 | 47.4% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 24.6 | 4.24 | 0.27 | 1.02 | 2.95 | 3.81 | 59.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 27.3 | 2.10 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 1.67 | 1.60 | 9.2% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 26.7 | 2.34 | 0.42 | 0.23 | 1.70 | 1.88 | 1.1% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-28 | Fine | $24,420 | CMS provider data |
| 2025-08-28 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| 2025-06-05 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| 2024-08-14 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2026-01-05 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2025-10-07 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2025-10-07 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2025-10-07 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2025-10-07 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-10-07 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2025-10-07 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-10-07 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-10-07 |
| 2025-06-05 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | G | 2025-07-15 |
| 2025-06-05 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2025-07-15 |
| 2024-09-26 | Health · complaint | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2024-10-24 |
| 2024-09-26 | Health · complaint | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | E | 2024-11-15 |
| 2024-09-26 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-10-24 |
| 2024-09-26 | Health · complaint | F0740 | Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services. | D | 2024-11-15 |
| 2024-09-26 | Health · complaint | F0745 | Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life. | D | 2024-11-15 |
| 2024-09-26 | Health · complaint | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2024-11-15 |
| 2024-09-26 | Health · complaint | F0825 | Provide or get specialized rehabilitative services as required for a resident. | D | 2024-11-15 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | E | 2024-07-26 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0661 | Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge. | D | 2024-07-26 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-07-26 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2024-07-26 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2024-07-26 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | D | 2024-07-26 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2024-07-26 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health · complaint | F0851 | Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data. | F | 2024-07-26 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-07-26 |
| 2024-05-14 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2024-06-22 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2023-08-25 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-08-25 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2023-08-25 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2023-08-25 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health · complaint | F0699 | Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent. | D | 2023-08-25 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health · complaint | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | E | 2023-08-25 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2023-08-25 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HELEN NEWBERRY JOY HOSPITAL | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2015-03-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BEAULIEU, MICHAEL | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2013-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DEPEW, ROBERT | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2023-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DERUSHA, NICHOLAS | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2019-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JOHNSON, HELEN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2024-08-12 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JOHNSON, HELEN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-08-13 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LASELY-HENRY, TAMMY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2019-02-19 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LYMAN, AMY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-03-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MORRISON, NANCY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2021-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NEEB, NATHAN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2013-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NELSON, TERRANCE | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2017-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RAO, RAGHU | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2015-03-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RAO, RAGHU | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2016-04-14 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RAO, RAGHU | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-05-08 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SLAGHT, JOANNA | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2010-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| AMY LYMAN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-17 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| HELEN JOHNSON | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2024-08-12 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| HELEN JOHNSON | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-08-13 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOANNA SLAGHT | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2010-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MICHAEL BEAULIEU | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2013-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NANCY MORRISON | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2021-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NATHAN NEEB | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2013-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NICHOLAS DERUSHA | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2019-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RAGHU RAO | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-05-08 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RAGHU RAO | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2016-04-14 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RAGHU RAO | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2015-03-05 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ROBERT DEPEW | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2023-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TAMMY LASELY-HENRY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2019-02-19 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TERRANCE NELSON | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2017-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | Niles Care Center, LLC | — | — | — | 100 | NILES CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Medilodge of Zeeland | — | — | — | 138 | ZEELAND OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Muskegon | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS MUSKEGON OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Kent-Crossing | — | — | — | 182 | OPTALIS BELTLINE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Leonard | — | — | — | 69 | OPTALIS LEONARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Ionia | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS IONIA OPCO LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | The Orchards at Big Rapids | — | — | — | 100 | BIG RAPIDS MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | The Orchards at Lapeer | — | — | — | 87 | LAPEER MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | Wexford Senior Care Center | — | — | — | 133 | WEXFORD SENIOR CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | The Orchards at Canterbury on the Lake | — | — | — | 128 | CANTERBURY MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-09-03 | Villa at Borgess Place | — | — | — | 101 | VILLA AT BORGESS PLACE LLC |
| 2024-08-07 | Optalis Health and Rehabilitation of Grand Rapids | — | — | — | 120 | OPTALIS GRAND RAPIDS OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 26095 | fmr | 0 | $699 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26095 | acs median gross | 1 | $569 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26095 | fmr | 1 | $753 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26095 | acs median gross | 2 | $750 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26095 | fmr | 2 | $988 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26095 | acs median gross | 3 | $779 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26095 | fmr | 3 | $1,185 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26095 | acs median gross | 4 | $967 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26095 | fmr | 4 | $1,353 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26095 | acs median gross | $675 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 26095 | acs recent mover gross | $857 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 49868 | acs median gross | 1 | $569 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49868 | acs median gross | 2 | $732 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49868 | acs median gross | 3 | $803 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49868 | acs median gross | 4 | $967 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49868 | acs median gross | $663 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 49868 | acs recent mover gross | $857 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 49868 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $781 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49868 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $639 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49868 | safmr | 0 | $710 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49868 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $836 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49868 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $684 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49868 | safmr | 1 | $760 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49868 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,100 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49868 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $900 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49868 | safmr | 2 | $1,000 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49868 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,320 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49868 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,080 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49868 | safmr | 3 | $1,200 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49868 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,507 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49868 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,233 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49868 | safmr | 4 | $1,370 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |