1309 KEMPSVILLE RD, NORFOLK, VA 23502 · CCN 495117
Composite
31.7 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
192
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 31.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
VA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.75
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.34
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.30
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.93
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
156.6
4.75
0.34
2.33
2.08
4.30
8.2%
2025Q3
92
163.8
4.57
0.36
2.21
2.00
3.97
10.6%
2025Q2
91
161.8
4.55
0.37
2.19
1.99
3.94
13.5%
2025Q1
90
156.4
4.82
0.43
2.21
2.18
4.19
12.9%
2024Q4
92
158.1
4.69
0.48
2.12
2.09
4.14
12.2%
2024Q3
92
168.9
4.47
0.47
1.99
2.02
3.87
13.1%
2024Q2
91
164.7
4.50
0.46
2.07
1.97
3.79
10.8%
2024Q1
91
160.9
4.64
0.48
2.07
2.10
3.98
14.4%
2023Q4
92
154.2
4.55
0.36
1.97
2.22
4.06
15.6%
2023Q3
92
167.7
4.21
0.31
1.87
2.03
3.67
15.2%
2023Q2
91
165.8
4.25
0.34
1.92
1.99
3.55
17.6%
2023Q1
90
163.1
4.20
0.36
1.90
1.95
3.56
15.6%
2022Q4
92
168.2
4.00
0.34
1.77
1.89
3.38
12.6%
2022Q3
92
152.6
4.19
0.33
1.81
2.06
3.70
11.8%
2022Q2
91
145.8
4.29
0.30
1.70
2.29
3.68
5.0%
2022Q1
90
147.7
3.94
0.31
1.84
1.78
3.46
3.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-11-28
2025-09-26
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-11-28
2025-09-26
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-11-28
2025-09-26
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2025-11-28
2025-09-26
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
D
2026-02-09
2021-10-15
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2021-12-22
2021-10-15
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2021-12-22
2021-10-15
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2021-12-22
2021-10-15
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2021-12-22
2021-10-15
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2021-12-22
2021-10-15
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
E
2021-12-22
2021-10-15
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2021-12-22
2021-10-15
Health
F0811
Ensure that residents are assessed for appropriateness for a feeding assistant program, receive services as per their plan of care, and feeding assistants are trained and supervised.
E
2021-12-22
2021-10-15
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2021-12-22
2018-11-01
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
C
2018-12-16
2018-11-01
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2018-12-16
2018-11-01
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2018-12-16
2018-11-01
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2018-12-16
2018-11-01
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2018-12-16
2018-11-01
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2018-12-16
2018-11-01
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2018-12-16
2018-11-01
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2018-12-16
2018-11-01
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2018-12-16
2018-11-01
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
2018-12-16
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
37
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
HOSPITAL AUTHORITY OF NORFOLK
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
—
current
pecos_ownership
ALBERT, ELIZABETH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-09-12
current
pecos_ownership
ALLEN, SUZANNE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-11-12
current
pecos_ownership
ARAMARK HEALTHCARE SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2007-01-19
current
pecos_ownership
ARMSTRONG, MELODY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-09-12
current
pecos_ownership
BAUMAN, DEBORAH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-03-05
current
pecos_ownership
DURHAM, CALVIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-05-25
current
pecos_ownership
FOGG, ROBERT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2000-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HCARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
LEHEW, WILLETTE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1999-07-20
current
pecos_ownership
MASSEY, PAUL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-09-27
current
pecos_ownership
ORSINI, THOMAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2010-04-16
current
pecos_ownership
ORSINI, THOMAS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1999-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
POSTON, ANITA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2004-11-02
current
pecos_ownership
ROBERTS-ATWATER, BEVERLY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-08-17
current
pecos_ownership
ROBINSON, BRADBURY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-12
current
pecos_ownership
RYAN, JOHN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-10-28
current
pecos_ownership
WARD, WILLIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
WILHELM, KAREN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
WOLFORD, LORRAINE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-02
current
pecos_ownership
ROBERT FOGG
CORPORATE OFFICER
15%
2000-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANITA POSTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
9%
2004-11-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BEVERLY ROBERTS-ATWATER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
9%
2012-08-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBORAH BAUMAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
9%
2009-03-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRADBURY ROBINSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CALVIN DURHAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-05-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH ALBERT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-09-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN RYAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-10-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN WILHELM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LORRAINE WOLFORD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELODY ARMSTRONG
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-09-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL MASSEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-09-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUZANNE ALLEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-11-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS ORSINI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1999-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS ORSINI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2010-04-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLETTE LEHEW
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1999-07-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIE WARD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-09-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 51710
acs median gross
0
$1,170
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51710
fmr
0
$1,492
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51710
acs median gross
1
$1,104
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51710
fmr
1
$1,512
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51710
acs median gross
2
$1,256
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51710
fmr
2
$1,713
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51710
acs median gross
3
$1,690
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51710
fmr
3
$2,376
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51710
acs median gross
4
$2,035
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51710
fmr
4
$2,797
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51710
acs median gross
5
$2,227
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51710
acs median gross
$1,321
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51710
acs recent mover gross
$1,547
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23502
acs median gross
1
$1,112
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23502
acs median gross
2
$1,328
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23502
acs median gross
3
$1,720
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23502
acs median gross
4
$2,048
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23502
acs median gross
$1,398
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23502
acs recent mover gross
$1,398
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 23502
payment standard 110
0
$1,518
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23502
payment standard 90
0
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23502
safmr
0
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23502
payment standard 110
1
$1,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23502
payment standard 90
1
$1,251
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23502
safmr
1
$1,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23502
payment standard 110
2
$1,738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23502
payment standard 90
2
$1,422
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23502
safmr
2
$1,580
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23502
payment standard 110
3
$2,409
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23502
payment standard 90
3
$1,971
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23502
safmr
3
$2,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23502
payment standard 110
4
$2,838
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23502
payment standard 90
4
$2,322
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23502
safmr
4
$2,580
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.