Composite
40.9 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 74.6 | 70.6 | 0.30 | 0.2609 | 19.46 | in index |
| financial risk | 40.3 | 39.7 | 0.30 | 0.2609 | 10.51 | in index |
| chow risk | 59.8 | 41.4 | 0.15 | 0.1304 | 7.80 | in index |
| lease risk | 46.1 | 51.6 | 0.15 | 0.1304 | 6.01 | in index |
| staffing risk | 6.1 | 6.2 | 0.25 | 0.2174 | 1.33 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 55.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 27.7 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 39.7 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| lease risk | 51.6 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 1.7 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 70.6 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 6.2 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 41.3 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 43.9 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| lease risk | 52.5 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later lease_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 71.1 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 71.1 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 6.2 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 6.2 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.70 | -0.33 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.43 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 2.00 | +1.06 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.70 | -0.63 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.43 | -0.22 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | AZ median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.70 | 3.53 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.35 | 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 4.38 | 3.35 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.83 | 3.62 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 165.9 | 4.70 | 0.35 | 1.16 | 3.19 | 4.38 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 164.3 | 4.72 | 0.34 | 1.21 | 3.17 | 4.43 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 161.5 | 4.61 | 0.39 | 1.13 | 3.09 | 4.26 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 157.1 | 4.53 | 0.39 | 1.17 | 2.97 | 4.22 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 151.8 | 4.90 | 0.37 | 1.31 | 3.22 | 4.64 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 152.7 | 5.15 | 0.43 | 1.37 | 3.35 | 4.79 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 159.4 | 4.76 | 0.39 | 1.31 | 3.06 | 4.45 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 164.8 | 4.57 | 0.35 | 1.33 | 2.88 | 4.21 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 164.8 | 5.04 | 0.43 | 1.42 | 3.20 | 4.67 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 179.4 | 4.50 | 0.34 | 1.29 | 2.87 | 4.30 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 182.6 | 4.26 | 0.37 | 1.19 | 2.71 | 3.99 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 179.6 | 4.08 | 0.34 | 1.11 | 2.63 | 3.82 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 177.9 | 4.20 | 0.34 | 1.10 | 2.76 | 4.17 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 181.4 | 3.93 | 0.34 | 1.05 | 2.54 | 3.80 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 187.2 | 3.69 | 0.30 | 0.97 | 2.42 | 3.61 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 181.0 | 3.61 | 0.31 | 1.01 | 2.29 | 3.34 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-31 | Fine | $9,110 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-03-07 | Fine | $9,419 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2026-05-06 |
| 2025-12-02 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2025-12-12 |
| 2025-07-15 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-08-15 |
| 2025-07-15 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2025-08-15 |
| 2025-07-15 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-08-15 |
| 2025-07-03 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-08-01 |
| 2025-05-27 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-03-24 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2025-04-24 |
| 2025-03-20 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-03-25 |
| 2025-01-31 | Health | F0557 | Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions. | D | 2025-03-20 |
| 2025-01-31 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-03-20 |
| 2025-01-31 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | E | 2025-03-20 |
| 2024-12-20 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-12-23 |
| 2024-12-20 | Health · complaint | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | D | 2024-12-23 |
| 2024-12-20 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-12-23 |
| 2024-09-05 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-10-18 |
| 2024-07-10 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-08-01 |
| 2024-04-19 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2024-04-24 |
| 2024-03-08 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-04-28 |
| 2024-03-08 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-04-28 |
| 2023-11-03 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-03 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-03 | Health | F0576 | Ensure residents have reasonable access to and privacy in their use of communication methods. | E | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-03 | Health | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-03 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | E | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-03 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health · complaint | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2023-12-04 |
| 2023-09-14 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-09-11 |
| 2023-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-09-15 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | E | 2023-09-11 |
| 2023-06-14 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | E | 2023-07-29 |
| 2023-06-14 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2023-07-29 |
| 2023-06-14 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2023-07-29 |
| 2022-09-02 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2022-10-31 |
| 2022-09-02 | Health | F0567 | Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs. | E | 2022-10-31 |
| 2022-09-02 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2022-10-31 |
| 2022-09-02 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2022-10-31 |
| 2022-09-02 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2022-10-31 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMMANUEL I LLC | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| IMMANUEL CARING MINISTRIES, INC. | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2019-11-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| IMMANUEL CARING MINISTRIES, INC. | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-15 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LITMAN, LAWRENCE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2015-12-09 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LITMAN, LAWRENCE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2018-12-09 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MCCARTHY-ROBINSON, SUSAN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2022-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MCNELLIS, GREGORY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| NASSOUR, WILLIAM | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2017-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TRAUTMAN, RAY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-03-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GREGORY MCNELLIS | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | — | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LAWRENCE LITMAN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2015-12-09 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LAWRENCE LITMAN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2018-12-09 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RAY TRAUTMAN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-03-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SUSAN MCCARTHY-ROBINSON | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2022-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| WILLIAM NASSOUR | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2017-12-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Springdale Village Post Acute | — | — | — | 122 | ONE HOPE HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | Citrus Heights Respiratory and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 204 | SALT CREEK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-11-20 | Prescott Valley Nursing & Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 58 | PRESCOTT VALLEY NURSING & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-11-19 | Prescott Village Nursing & Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 58 | PRESCOTT VILLAGE NURSING & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-11-18 | QUIBURI MISSION NURSING & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 60 | QUIBURI MISSION NURSING & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-09-26 | THE REHABILITATION CENTER AT THE PALAZZO | — | — | — | 60 | APHZ LLC |
| 2024-06-01 | Wellsprings of Gilbert | — | — | — | 32 | HARBOR MESA HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | RIVER PARK POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 66 | MURIEL HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-09-01 | Ahwatukee Post Acute | — | — | — | 192 | LA ESTANCIA SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-09-01 | Sun City Post Acute | — | — | — | 118 | SUN CITY SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-09-01 | REHAB AT SCOTTSDALE VILLAGE SQUARE | — | — | — | 141 | SCOTTSDALE AZ OPCO LLC |
| 2023-09-01 | SANDRIDGE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 191 | MESA ARIZONA SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 04013 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,383 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04013 | fmr | 0 | $1,457 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 04013 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,453 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04013 | fmr | 1 | $1,583 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 04013 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,698 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04013 | fmr | 2 | $1,839 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 04013 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,027 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04013 | fmr | 3 | $2,452 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 04013 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,312 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04013 | fmr | 4 | $2,720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 04013 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,632 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04013 | acs median gross | $1,708 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 04013 | acs recent mover gross | $1,867 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 85345 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,547 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 85345 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,305 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 85345 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,470 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 85345 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,928 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 85345 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,038 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 85345 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,346 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 85345 | acs median gross | $1,697 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 85345 | acs recent mover gross | $1,754 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 85345 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,562 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85345 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,278 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85345 | safmr | 0 | $1,420 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85345 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,694 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85345 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,386 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85345 | safmr | 1 | $1,540 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85345 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,969 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85345 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,611 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85345 | safmr | 2 | $1,790 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85345 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,629 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85345 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,151 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85345 | safmr | 3 | $2,390 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85345 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,915 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85345 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,385 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85345 | safmr | 4 | $2,650 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |