1265 SOUTH CEDAR CREST BLVD, ALLENTOWN, PA 18103 · CCN 395760 · chain NFR 2020 IRRV TR
Composite
50.7 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
166
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 50.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.16
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.53
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.09
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.19
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
156.8
3.16
0.53
0.77
1.87
3.09
0.6%
2025Q3
92
158.3
3.15
0.53
0.71
1.90
3.09
0.3%
2025Q2
91
156.0
3.19
0.40
0.83
1.96
3.17
0.3%
2025Q1
90
156.2
3.17
0.37
0.86
1.94
3.17
0.2%
2024Q4
92
154.4
3.22
0.37
0.85
2.00
3.24
0.2%
2024Q3
92
155.7
3.25
0.37
0.81
2.07
3.24
0.3%
2024Q2
91
154.3
3.00
0.38
0.69
1.93
2.97
0.5%
2024Q1
91
155.1
2.87
0.38
0.72
1.77
2.79
0.9%
2023Q4
92
150.4
2.96
0.37
0.75
1.84
2.90
1.4%
2023Q3
92
149.5
3.00
0.45
0.74
1.81
2.89
10.6%
2023Q2
91
140.8
2.92
0.44
0.78
1.71
2.74
23.2%
2023Q1
90
146.1
2.80
0.44
0.69
1.68
2.60
37.2%
2022Q4
92
128.3
2.89
0.44
0.65
1.80
2.92
36.2%
2022Q3
92
126.2
2.87
0.42
0.70
1.75
2.84
38.4%
2022Q2
91
126.0
2.73
0.40
0.69
1.64
2.69
44.8%
2022Q1
90
138.4
2.83
0.35
0.75
1.73
2.79
63.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
13
D × 13
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-30
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-05-21
2025-11-26
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2026-01-06
2025-11-26
Health
F0605
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
D
2026-01-06
2025-11-26
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-01-06
2025-11-26
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-01-06
2025-11-26
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2026-01-06
2025-11-26
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2026-01-06
2025-11-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2026-01-06
2025-11-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-01-06
2025-09-04
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-09-24
2025-05-03
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2025-05-23
2024-10-10
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-10-31
2023-11-08
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-11-28
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
33
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CEDAR CREST OPERATOR HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
CEDAR CREST PROP CO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CEDAR CREST PROP CO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-02-10
current
hcris_a_8_1
FLAGLER, OSHER
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-10
current
pecos_ownership
FOX, DEBORAH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
ISRAEL DISCOUNT BANK OF NEW YORK - IDB BANK OF YORK
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2023-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
KAHANOW, AVIVA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-10
current
pecos_ownership
LEVOVITZ, TZVI
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-10
current
pecos_ownership
LINEAGE HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
LIVE WELL PLUS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-04
current
pecos_ownership
LONG, TROY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-04-17
current
pecos_ownership
MARQUIS LIMITED LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
NFR 2020 IRRV TR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
POSEN, MINDEE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
QUINTO LINEAGE LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
RELIANT PRO REHAB LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
ROKEACH, FRAIDE
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-10
current
pecos_ownership
ROKOWSKY, YITZCHOK
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-10
current
pecos_ownership
RSBRMK HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
SCHUPPER, LESLIE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-08-14
current
pecos_ownership
SK NEXGEN TR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
SKILLED VENTURE LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
TRYKO NEXGEN HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
UAK 2020 IRRV TR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
UKR NEXGEN LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
VIROJA, YOGESH
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
YK NEXGEN TR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
YR NEXGEN TR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
DEBORAH FOX
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LESLIE SCHUPPER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-08-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MINDEE POSEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TROY LONG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-04-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YOGESH VIROJA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$965,406
—
$965,406
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$1,219,813
—
$977,413
—
$242,400
3
propco
2023-02-09
$419,012
—
$419,012
—
—
2
—
2022-05-31
$579,255
—
$579,255
—
—
2
—
2021-05-31
$543,239
—
$543,239
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42077
acs median gross
0
$1,087
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42077
fmr
0
$1,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42077
acs median gross
1
$1,137
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42077
fmr
1
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42077
acs median gross
2
$1,468
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42077
fmr
2
$1,634
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42077
acs median gross
3
$1,602
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42077
fmr
3
$2,087
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42077
acs median gross
4
$1,790
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42077
fmr
4
$2,195
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42077
acs median gross
5
$1,769
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42077
acs median gross
$1,383
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42077
acs recent mover gross
$1,595
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18103
acs median gross
0
$1,321
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18103
acs median gross
1
$1,225
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18103
acs median gross
2
$1,403
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18103
acs median gross
3
$1,635
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18103
acs median gross
4
$1,649
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18103
acs median gross
5
$1,199
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18103
acs median gross
$1,368
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18103
acs recent mover gross
$1,487
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 18103
payment standard 110
0
$1,254
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18103
payment standard 90
0
$1,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18103
safmr
0
$1,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18103
payment standard 110
1
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18103
payment standard 90
1
$1,215
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18103
safmr
1
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18103
payment standard 110
2
$1,815
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18103
payment standard 90
2
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18103
safmr
2
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18103
payment standard 110
3
$2,321
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18103
payment standard 90
3
$1,899
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18103
safmr
3
$2,110
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18103
payment standard 110
4
$2,442
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18103
payment standard 90
4
$1,998
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18103
safmr
4
$2,220
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.