Reads as: riskier than 11.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
ZIMMET HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP LLC
11 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.28
3.33
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.05
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.97
3.03
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.40
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
313.2
4.28
1.05
0.63
2.60
3.97
0.0%
2025Q3
92
309.5
4.41
1.07
0.67
2.68
4.06
0.0%
2025Q2
91
310.2
4.25
1.03
0.60
2.62
3.92
0.0%
2025Q1
90
309.1
4.26
1.05
0.57
2.64
4.02
0.0%
2024Q4
92
305.1
4.43
1.10
0.63
2.70
4.14
3.4%
2024Q3
92
306.8
4.23
1.03
0.66
2.54
3.85
6.7%
2024Q2
91
300.9
4.34
1.13
0.64
2.56
3.93
8.5%
2024Q1
91
304.9
4.21
1.12
0.57
2.52
3.84
8.8%
2023Q4
92
304.7
4.08
1.04
0.60
2.44
3.69
8.4%
2023Q3
92
307.0
3.96
0.93
0.65
2.39
3.59
14.8%
2023Q2
91
304.1
3.58
0.68
0.63
2.27
3.30
19.4%
2023Q1
90
305.6
0.48
0.03
0.10
0.36
0.48
100.0%
2022Q4
92
308.4
3.36
0.74
0.51
2.12
3.04
12.7%
2022Q3
92
312.3
3.23
0.75
0.46
2.02
2.84
9.2%
2022Q2
91
310.3
3.36
0.72
0.49
2.15
3.01
7.4%
2022Q1
90
289.6
3.67
0.77
0.55
2.35
3.35
7.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
10
B × 1D × 8G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-03-11
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
B
2025-05-07
2025-03-11
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-05-07
2023-09-01
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-10-27
2021-07-01
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2021-08-25
2021-07-01
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2021-08-25
2021-07-01
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2021-08-25
2021-07-01
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2021-08-25
2021-07-01
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2021-08-25
2021-07-01
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2021-08-25
2021-07-01
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
D
2021-08-25
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
24
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BRANCATO, CHRISTOPHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-06-24
current
pecos_ownership
BRAND, JEANMARIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1994-07-28
current
pecos_ownership
CMS COMPLIANCE GROUP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2011-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
FACULTY STUDENT ASSOCIATION OF THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NY STONY BROOK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-09-22
current
pecos_ownership
FACULTY STUDENT ASSOCIATION OF THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NY STONY BROOK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-07
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS, LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
IGARASHI, PETER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-09-12
current
pecos_ownership
MUSCARELLA, DENISE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-12-14
current
pecos_ownership
ROCCO, PAT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2004-07-12
current
pecos_ownership
SCIOSCIA, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
SGANGA, FRED
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2001-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
SINGH, ANSHU
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SPIER, JONATHAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-10-08
current
pecos_ownership
STATE OF NEW YORK COMPTROLLERS OFFICE
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
1991-10-23
current
pecos_ownership
ZIMMET HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANSHU SINGH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER BRANCATO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-06-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DENISE MUSCARELLA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-12-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FRED SGANGA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2001-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEANMARIE BRAND
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1994-07-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONATHAN SPIER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-10-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL SCIOSCIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-12-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAT ROCCO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-07-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PETER IGARASHI
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-09-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 36103
acs median gross
0
$1,765
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36103
fmr
0
$1,992
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36103
acs median gross
1
$1,944
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36103
fmr
1
$2,379
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36103
acs median gross
2
$2,332
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36103
fmr
2
$2,747
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36103
acs median gross
3
$2,669
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36103
fmr
3
$3,563
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36103
acs median gross
4
$2,795
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36103
fmr
4
$3,768
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36103
acs median gross
5
$2,721
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36103
acs median gross
$2,255
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36103
acs recent mover gross
$2,479
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 11790
acs median gross
1
$2,375
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 11790
acs median gross
3
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 11790
acs median gross
4
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 11790
acs median gross
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 11790
payment standard 110
0
$2,717
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11790
payment standard 90
0
$2,223
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11790
safmr
0
$2,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11790
payment standard 110
1
$3,245
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11790
payment standard 90
1
$2,655
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11790
safmr
1
$2,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11790
payment standard 110
2
$3,751
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11790
payment standard 90
2
$3,069
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11790
safmr
2
$3,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11790
payment standard 110
3
$4,862
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11790
payment standard 90
3
$3,978
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11790
safmr
3
$4,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11790
payment standard 110
4
$5,148
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11790
payment standard 90
4
$4,212
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11790
safmr
4
$4,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.