250 JORDAN DRIVE, GRANITE FALLS, MN 56241 · CCN 245243 · chain AVERA HEALTH
Composite
48.1 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
48
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 48.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.90
3.49
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.49
0.65
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.87
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.91
3.59
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
46.3
2.90
0.49
0.24
2.17
2.87
0.0%
2025Q3
92
46.1
2.98
0.51
0.20
2.28
2.89
0.0%
2025Q2
91
46.2
2.92
0.55
0.23
2.13
2.75
0.0%
2025Q1
90
46.0
2.88
0.46
0.22
2.20
2.83
0.0%
2024Q4
92
46.8
2.84
0.48
0.19
2.17
2.74
3.9%
2024Q3
92
46.9
2.77
0.39
0.20
2.18
2.65
0.0%
2024Q2
91
46.5
2.85
0.43
0.23
2.19
2.64
0.0%
2024Q1
91
46.3
2.84
0.41
0.34
2.08
2.75
0.0%
2023Q4
92
47.2
2.66
0.28
0.34
2.04
2.47
0.0%
2023Q3
92
47.4
2.63
0.30
0.26
2.06
2.42
0.0%
2023Q2
91
47.5
3.10
0.65
0.39
2.06
2.52
0.0%
2023Q1
90
46.8
2.74
0.31
0.41
2.02
2.51
0.0%
2022Q4
92
47.4
2.53
0.00
0.39
2.14
2.33
0.0%
2022Q3
92
45.7
2.75
0.00
0.47
2.28
2.47
0.0%
2022Q2
91
47.4
2.52
0.00
0.40
2.12
2.33
0.0%
2022Q1
90
47.1
2.44
0.01
0.48
1.96
2.34
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-09-12
2025-09-10
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-11-26
2025-09-10
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-11-26
2025-09-10
Health
F0882
Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home.
F
2025-11-26
2025-09-10
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2025-11-26
2024-07-17
Health
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
E
2024-08-08
2024-07-17
Health
F0576
Ensure residents have reasonable access to and privacy in their use of communication methods.
F
2024-08-08
2024-07-17
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2024-08-08
2024-07-17
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-08-08
2024-07-17
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-08-20
2024-07-17
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-08-08
2024-05-02
Health · complaint
F0678
Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives.
J
2024-04-30
2024-02-29
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-03-21
2024-02-29
Health · complaint
F0773
Provide or obtain laboratory tests/services when ordered and promptly tell the ordering practitioner of the results.
D
2024-03-21
2023-08-10
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2023-09-06
2023-08-10
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-09-06
2023-08-10
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
E
2023-09-06
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
28
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AVERA MARSHALL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
AVERA HEALTH
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARBER, DANIEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARTER, DARRELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARTER, DARRELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-16
current
pecos_ownership
COUDRON, CHRISTY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
JENSEN, MARK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KOENEN, LAVONNE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KOOIMAN, THOMAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-16
current
pecos_ownership
KOOIMAN, THOMAS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAUTT, JULIE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
RIOS AVENDANO, ROSA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
STREICH, LISA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
STREIER, DEBRA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELBIG, LUCILLE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHRISTY COUDRON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL BARBER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DARRELL CARTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DARRELL CARTER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBRA STREIER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JULIE LAUTT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAVONNE KOENEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA STREICH
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LUCILLE WELBIG
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK JENSEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROSA RIOS AVENDANO
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS KOOIMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS KOOIMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 27023
acs median gross
0
$1,681
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27023
fmr
0
$671
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27023
acs median gross
1
$666
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27023
fmr
1
$772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27023
acs median gross
2
$848
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27023
fmr
2
$973
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27023
acs median gross
3
$1,095
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27023
fmr
3
$1,353
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27023
acs median gross
4
$1,131
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27023
fmr
4
$1,382
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27023
acs median gross
$869
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27023
acs recent mover gross
$736
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56241
acs median gross
1
$535
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56241
acs median gross
2
$936
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56241
acs median gross
3
$1,294
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56241
acs median gross
5
$1,321
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56241
acs median gross
$863
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 56241
payment standard 110
0
$803
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56241
payment standard 90
0
$657
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56241
safmr
0
$730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56241
payment standard 110
1
$913
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56241
payment standard 90
1
$747
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56241
safmr
1
$830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56241
payment standard 110
2
$1,166
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56241
payment standard 90
2
$954
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56241
safmr
2
$1,060
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56241
payment standard 110
3
$1,463
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56241
payment standard 90
3
$1,197
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56241
safmr
3
$1,330
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56241
payment standard 110
4
$1,606
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56241
payment standard 90
4
$1,314
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56241
safmr
4
$1,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.