Composite
97.5 / 100 percentile
Screener / 405032
F
HOSPITAL DE LA CONCEPCION INC
snfPR
CARR 2 KM 173 4 BO CAIN ALTO, SAN GERMAN, PR 00683 · CCN 405032
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
30
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 97.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model3ML signals1Components9CHOW radar1Distress radar1Staffing3Penalties0Deficiencies51Licensure0Ownership18Related party0Transactions0Market rent32
Composite explanation
3| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 90.1 | 90.1 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 32.18 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 59.1 | 50.0 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 25.33 | in index |
| chow risk | 84.9 | 45.0 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 18.19 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| anomaly | Quarter-over-quarter staffing cliff | −33% QoQ | this facility | 2026-07-29 |
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Component scores and registry models
9| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 45.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.7 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 50.0 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 90.1 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 50.0 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 50.0 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 90.1 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 90.1 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
0.1%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
33.9
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 1.20 | -1.46 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 3.43 | +0.13 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.7%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
82.7
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 1.20 | -1.90 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 5.00 | +0.50 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.52 | +0.29 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 3.43 | +0.19 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
3| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | PR median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.52 | 3.15 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 2.52 | 2.52 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.44 | 2.85 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.56 | 3.27 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 52.3 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.44 | 4.8% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 81.2 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.35 | 6.2% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 56.1 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.03 | 5.1% |
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
51C × 3D × 3E × 4F × 41
deficiencies by survey year
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | E | 2026-05-01 |
| 2026-03-05 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2026-05-01 |
| 2026-03-05 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2026-05-01 |
| 2026-03-05 | Health | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | F | 2026-05-01 |
| 2026-03-05 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | F | 2026-05-01 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | F | 2024-10-23 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0551 | Give the resident's representative the ability to exercise the resident's rights. | F | 2024-10-11 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0553 | Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0555 | Honor the resident's right to choose his or her attending physician. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0557 | Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0559 | Honor the resident's right to share a room with spouse or roommate of choice and receive written notice before a change is made. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0560 | Protect a residents' right to refuse some types of non-requested transfers within the nursing home. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0562 | Provide immediate access to any resident. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0563 | Honor the resident's right to receive visitors of his or her choosing, at the time of his or her choosing. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0564 | Inform each resident of his or her visitation rights and ensure that all visitors enjoy equal visitation privileges. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0565 | Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0566 | 1) Protect residents from being forced to work at the nursing home, or 2) let residents work if they want to. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0567 | Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0568 | Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0569 | Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0570 | Assure the security of all personal funds of residents deposited with the facility. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0571 | Limit the charges against residents' personal funds for items or services for which payment is made under Medicare or Medicaid. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0572 | Give residents a notice of rights, rules, services and charges. | F | 2024-10-11 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0573 | Let each resident or the resident's legal representative access or purchase copies of all the resident's records. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0574 | The resident has the right to receive notices in a format and a language he or she understands. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0575 | Post a list of names, addresses, and telephone numbers of all pertinent State agencies and advocacy groups and a statement that the resident may file a complaint with the State Survey Agency. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0576 | Ensure residents have reasonable access to and privacy in their use of communication methods. | F | 2024-10-23 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0577 | Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies. | F | 2024-10-11 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | F | 2024-10-11 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0579 | Provide information about how to apply for and use Medicare and Medicaid benefits. | F | 2024-10-23 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | F | 2024-10-23 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0586 | Not prohibit or in any way discourage a resident from communicating with federal, state, or local officials. | F | 2024-10-16 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | F | 2024-10-23 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0605 | Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function. | F | 2024-10-23 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | E | 2024-10-23 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | F | 2024-10-15 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2024-10-23 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2024-09-12 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0790 | Provide routine and 24-hour emergency dental care for each resident. | F | 2024-09-20 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | D | 2024-10-03 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | D | 2024-10-23 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | C | 2024-10-03 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0851 | Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data. | C | 2024-10-10 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-10-08 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health | F0949 | Provide behavior health training consistent with the requirements and as determined by a facility assessment. | F | 2024-10-23 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
18| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOSPITAL DE LA CONCEPCION INC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2023-12-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CALDERON, LIZMARI | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2023-12-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CALDERON, LIZMARI | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CARDONA RODRIGUEZ, VANESSA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CARDONA RODRIGUEZ, VANESSA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-12-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FERRER, MARIE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FERRER, MARIE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2023-12-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HOSPITAL DE LA CONCEPCION INC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| QUINONES BODEGA, CARLOS | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2023-12-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| QUINONES BODEGA, CARLOS | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LIZMARI CALDERON | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 100% | 2023-12-05 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARIE FERRER | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 2023-12-05 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| VANESSA CARDONA RODRIGUEZ | CORPORATE OFFICER | 100% | 2023-12-05 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CARLOS QUINONES BODEGA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-17 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CARLOS QUINONES BODEGA | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2023-12-05 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LIZMARI CALDERON | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-17 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARIE FERRER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-17 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| VANESSA CARDONA RODRIGUEZ | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-17 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Market rent context
32| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 72125 | fmr | 0 | $407 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 72125 | acs median gross | 1 | $233 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 72125 | fmr | 1 | $410 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 72125 | acs median gross | 2 | $448 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 72125 | fmr | 2 | $530 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 72125 | acs median gross | 3 | $626 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 72125 | fmr | 3 | $659 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 72125 | acs median gross | 4 | $561 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 72125 | fmr | 4 | $702 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 72125 | acs median gross | $481 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 72125 | acs recent mover gross | $483 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 00683 | acs median gross | 1 | $233 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 00683 | acs median gross | 2 | $446 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 00683 | acs median gross | 3 | $654 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 00683 | acs median gross | 4 | $561 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 00683 | acs median gross | $482 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 00683 | acs recent mover gross | $483 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 00683 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $495 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 00683 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $405 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 00683 | safmr | 0 | $450 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 00683 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $517 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 00683 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $423 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 00683 | safmr | 1 | $470 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 00683 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $572 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 00683 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $468 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 00683 | safmr | 2 | $520 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 00683 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $726 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 00683 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $594 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 00683 | safmr | 3 | $660 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 00683 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $847 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 00683 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $693 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 00683 | safmr | 4 | $770 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.