Reads as: riskier than 6.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.2 vs natl
RSM US LLP
18 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
BRIGHTON CONSULTING GROUP LLC
17 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
ECSI INC
9 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.90
3.15
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.01
0.46
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.82
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.93
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
28.6
3.90
1.01
0.37
2.51
3.82
20.6%
2025Q3
92
30.2
3.82
0.80
0.52
2.50
3.77
8.3%
2025Q2
91
29.7
3.87
0.87
0.49
2.51
3.93
3.6%
2025Q1
90
30.4
3.77
0.95
0.38
2.44
3.76
1.6%
2024Q4
92
29.1
3.79
1.12
0.37
2.30
4.00
2.5%
2024Q3
92
27.4
4.20
1.14
0.60
2.46
4.25
5.3%
2024Q2
91
27.1
4.09
0.84
0.87
2.38
4.19
0.6%
2024Q1
91
29.1
3.79
0.83
0.59
2.37
3.72
2.0%
2023Q4
92
26.8
4.36
0.98
0.64
2.73
4.12
1.4%
2023Q3
92
28.0
4.13
0.70
0.67
2.76
3.99
2.0%
2023Q2
91
29.3
3.76
0.69
0.62
2.46
3.71
3.1%
2023Q1
90
27.6
4.23
0.65
0.77
2.80
3.92
0.5%
2022Q4
92
25.1
4.13
0.61
0.82
2.70
4.13
1.0%
2022Q3
92
26.0
4.04
0.58
0.82
2.63
3.77
4.3%
2022Q2
91
29.9
4.11
0.55
0.85
2.71
3.82
14.4%
2022Q1
90
30.1
4.05
0.56
0.80
2.69
4.02
7.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
6
D × 5E × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-09
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2026-05-01
2025-05-29
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-06-16
2025-05-29
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-06-16
2024-07-11
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-08-02
2024-07-11
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-08-02
2024-07-11
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
E
2024-08-02
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
61
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
MAYFLOWER HOMES INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
1993-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BCG HOLDINGS INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRIGHTON CONSULTING GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARLSON, PAIGE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-10-13
current
pecos_ownership
CATTAIL BCG LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CATTAIL INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CROW, MEREDITH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
DILLON, JESSICA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-10-13
current
pecos_ownership
DILLON, JESSICA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-10-08
current
pecos_ownership
ECSI INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
FAIRCHILD, DIANE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-08
current
pecos_ownership
GRUHN, SCOTT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-07-18
current
pecos_ownership
GRUHN, SCOTT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-07-14
current
pecos_ownership
HEINEMAN, BRIAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-07-18
current
pecos_ownership
HEINEMAN, BRIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-05-06
current
pecos_ownership
IOWA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
JAWORSKI, LESLIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
JEPSEN, LISA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-07-26
current
pecos_ownership
JEPSEN, LISA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-10-08
current
pecos_ownership
KEY REHABILITATION INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAHAFFEY, PATRICK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-08
current
pecos_ownership
MARSHO, PETER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-08
current
pecos_ownership
MCGRIFF, KELLIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-07-18
current
pecos_ownership
MOFFATT, THOMAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
MUTTI, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-10-08
current
pecos_ownership
MUTTI, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-10-08
current
pecos_ownership
NCS HEALTHCARE OF IOWA, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
RAMSEY, JAMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-10-08
current
pecos_ownership
RAMSEY, JAMES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-10-13
current
pecos_ownership
RSM US LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
RYUN, GIVENS & COMPANY, P.C.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
STAROSKA, JACOB
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-12-07
current
pecos_ownership
VOSBURG, PAMELA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2009-12-07
current
pecos_ownership
VOSBURG, PAMELA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2009-12-09
current
pecos_ownership
WIECK, VICKI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-15
current
pecos_ownership
WILTFANG, ANNELIESE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-06
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES RAMSEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2020-10-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESSICA DILLON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2020-10-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MUTTI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2020-10-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA JEPSEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2020-10-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAMELA VOSBURG
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2009-12-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANNELIESE WILTFANG
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN HEINEMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-05-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN HEINEMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-07-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIANE FAIRCHILD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACOB STAROSKA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-12-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES RAMSEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-10-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESSICA DILLON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-10-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MUTTI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-10-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLIE MCGRIFF
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-07-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LESLIE JAWORSKI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA JEPSEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-07-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MEREDITH CROW
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAIGE CARLSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-10-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAMELA VOSBURG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2009-12-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICK MAHAFFEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PETER MARSHO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT GRUHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-07-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT GRUHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-07-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS MOFFATT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VICKI WIECK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 19157
fmr
0
$733
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19157
acs median gross
1
$711
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19157
fmr
1
$853
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19157
acs median gross
2
$906
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19157
fmr
2
$988
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19157
acs median gross
3
$1,143
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19157
fmr
3
$1,303
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19157
acs median gross
4
$1,301
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19157
fmr
4
$1,308
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19157
acs median gross
$883
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19157
acs recent mover gross
$950
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50112
acs median gross
1
$714
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50112
acs median gross
2
$946
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50112
acs median gross
3
$1,204
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50112
acs median gross
4
$1,305
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50112
acs median gross
$894
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50112
acs recent mover gross
$941
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 50112
payment standard 110
0
$803
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50112
payment standard 90
0
$657
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50112
safmr
0
$730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50112
payment standard 110
1
$924
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50112
payment standard 90
1
$756
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50112
safmr
1
$840
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50112
payment standard 110
2
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50112
payment standard 90
2
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50112
safmr
2
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50112
payment standard 110
3
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50112
payment standard 90
3
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50112
safmr
3
$1,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50112
payment standard 110
4
$1,441
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50112
payment standard 90
4
$1,179
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50112
safmr
4
$1,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.