Reads as: riskier than 43.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
9.99
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
6.17
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
10.01
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
9.98
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
16.5
9.99
6.17
0.00
3.83
10.01
0.0%
2025Q3
92
16.9
9.59
5.95
0.00
3.65
9.58
0.0%
2025Q2
91
16.7
9.62
6.07
0.00
3.55
9.68
0.0%
2025Q1
90
16.7
9.70
6.17
0.00
3.54
9.85
0.0%
2024Q4
92
16.6
9.81
6.17
0.00
3.63
10.07
0.0%
2024Q3
92
16.3
10.05
6.29
0.00
3.76
10.25
0.0%
2024Q2
91
16.2
10.05
6.24
0.00
3.81
10.33
0.0%
2024Q1
91
16.4
10.46
6.11
0.00
4.35
10.70
0.0%
2023Q4
92
16.4
10.05
6.15
0.00
3.90
10.14
0.0%
2023Q3
92
16.3
10.07
6.15
0.00
3.92
10.22
0.0%
2023Q2
91
16.3
10.05
6.37
0.00
3.68
10.34
0.0%
2023Q1
90
17.4
9.64
5.89
0.00
3.75
9.85
0.0%
2022Q4
92
16.3
9.62
6.00
0.00
3.62
9.29
0.0%
2022Q3
92
16.7
9.58
5.96
0.00
3.62
9.64
0.0%
2022Q2
91
17.8
9.13
5.65
0.00
3.48
9.18
0.0%
2022Q1
90
18.4
8.53
5.24
0.00
3.29
8.63
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
2
D × 2
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2023-06-09
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2023-06-10
2023-06-09
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-06-30
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
61
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BAUCUM, CARLTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2004-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOOKOUT, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
BOOM, MARC
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2009-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CROSSWELL, EMILY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
DAFFIN, MARY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1997-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELLIS, JULIET
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-11-19
current
pecos_ownership
GONZALEZ, RICARDO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-06-19
current
pecos_ownership
HARVEY, CYNTHIA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOUSER, MARK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-04-27
current
pecos_ownership
KURRELMEYER, KARLA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEVINGSTON, KENNETH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
MALONE-WARDLEY, ROMONICA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARTINEZ, VIDAL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1992-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORELAND, W
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-11-18
current
pecos_ownership
NELSON, GREGORY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2003-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACE, THOMAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PEREZ, ARMANDO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
PERKINS, JOE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
ROBB, EDMUND
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHWARTZ, ROBERTA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-10-08
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, MARTHA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SWANSON, DOUGLAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE METHODIST HOSPITAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1995-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
THEKDI, APURVA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TILLMAN, SPENCER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-11-18
current
pecos_ownership
TRUMBLE, THEODORE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
UNDERWOOD, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-11-18
current
pecos_ownership
VOZZELLA, GAIL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-03
current
pecos_ownership
WALTER, JOSEPH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
WAREING, ELIZABETH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
WERLEIN, EWING
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1990-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
APURVA THEKDI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARMANDO PEREZ
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CARLTON BAUCUM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2004-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA HARVEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID UNDERWOOD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-11-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS SWANSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDMUND ROBB
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH WAREING
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EMILY CROSSWELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
—
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EWING WERLEIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1990-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GAIL VOZZELLA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY NELSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2003-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOE PERKINS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN BOOKOUT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
—
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH WALTER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JULIET ELLIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-11-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARLA KURRELMEYER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KENNETH LEVINGSTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-09-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARC BOOM
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2009-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HOUSER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-04-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARTHA SMITH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY DAFFIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1997-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICARDO GONZALEZ
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-06-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERTA SCHWARTZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-10-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROMONICA MALONE-WARDLEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SPENCER TILLMAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-11-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THEODORE TRUMBLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS PACE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VIDAL MARTINEZ
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1992-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
W MORELAND
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-11-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48201
acs median gross
0
$1,177
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
0
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
1
$1,196
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
1
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
2
$1,425
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
2
$1,573
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
3
$1,764
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
3
$2,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
4
$2,148
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
4
$2,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
5
$2,339
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
acs median gross
$1,401
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
acs recent mover gross
$1,495
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77030
acs median gross
0
$1,788
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77030
acs median gross
1
$1,653
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77030
acs median gross
2
$1,793
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77030
acs median gross
3
$1,785
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77030
acs median gross
4
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77030
acs median gross
$1,714
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77030
acs recent mover gross
$1,641
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 77030
payment standard 110
0
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77030
payment standard 90
0
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77030
safmr
0
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77030
payment standard 110
1
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77030
payment standard 90
1
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77030
safmr
1
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77030
payment standard 110
2
$2,123
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77030
payment standard 90
2
$1,737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77030
safmr
2
$1,930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77030
payment standard 110
3
$2,860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77030
payment standard 90
3
$2,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77030
safmr
3
$2,600
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77030
payment standard 110
4
$3,564
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77030
payment standard 90
4
$2,916
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77030
safmr
4
$3,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.