Reads as: riskier than 71.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
9
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.1 vs natl
GANZ DAVID
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.2 vs natl
OELBAUM YITZCHOK
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.4 vs natl
RIVERS EDGE PARTNERS LLC
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.4 vs natl
RIVERS EDGE OPERATIONS LLC
5 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
GANZ DAVID
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
63% fined
OELBAUM YITZCHOK
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
53% fined
GANZ DAVID
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
RIVERS EDGE OPERATIONS LLC
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
RIVERS EDGE PARTNERS LLC
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OK median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.40
2.78
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.08
0.18
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.05
2.72
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.54
2.80
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
63.9
2.40
0.08
0.91
1.41
2.05
11.1%
2025Q3
92
62.7
2.44
0.09
0.88
1.48
2.24
11.6%
2025Q2
91
62.4
2.63
0.14
0.97
1.51
2.63
9.4%
2025Q1
90
61.6
2.69
0.20
0.95
1.54
2.52
3.0%
2024Q4
92
62.9
2.73
0.23
0.85
1.64
2.51
1.5%
2024Q3
92
67.1
2.70
0.15
0.90
1.65
2.59
1.8%
2024Q2
91
71.1
2.54
0.15
0.89
1.51
2.23
0.5%
2024Q1
91
74.5
2.54
0.11
0.90
1.53
2.36
0.6%
2023Q4
92
75.2
2.70
0.13
0.81
1.76
2.50
0.1%
2023Q3
92
77.9
2.66
0.18
0.77
1.71
2.42
0.6%
2023Q2
91
77.0
2.88
0.18
0.85
1.85
2.55
0.0%
2023Q1
90
75.2
2.99
0.15
0.88
1.96
2.87
0.0%
2022Q4
92
68.8
2.61
0.13
0.83
1.65
2.54
0.0%
2022Q3
92
68.5
2.22
0.18
0.66
1.38
1.94
0.0%
2022Q2
91
61.1
2.48
0.23
0.81
1.44
2.15
0.9%
2022Q1
90
60.6
2.28
0.19
0.81
1.27
2.37
1.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months.
D
2025-09-12
2025-08-10
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2025-09-12
2025-08-10
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-09-12
2025-08-10
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-09-12
2025-08-10
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-09-12
2025-08-10
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
D
2025-09-12
2025-08-10
Health
F0848
Provide a neutral and fair arbitration process and agree to arbitrator and venue.
E
2025-09-12
2025-08-10
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-09-12
2024-03-14
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2024-04-26
2024-03-14
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2024-04-26
2024-03-14
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-04-26
2024-03-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-04-26
2024-02-13
Health · complaint
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-03-21
2023-01-26
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-03-31
2023-01-26
Health
F0661
Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge.
D
2023-03-31
2023-01-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2023-03-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
11
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
RIVERS EDGE OPERATIONS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-01-06
current
pecos_ownership
RIVERS EDGE PARTNERS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2023-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
OELBAUM, YITZCHOK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2023-01-06
current
pecos_ownership
GANZ, DAVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSON, ERNEST
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-01-06
current
pecos_ownership
ERNEST JOHNSON
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2023-01-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID GANZ
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
40%
2023-01-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
S. ARYEH RETTER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2023-01-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YITZCHOK OELBAUM
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2023-01-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVROHOM KRAVETZ
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2023-01-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID GANZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 40037
acs median gross
0
$637
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40037
fmr
0
$933
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40037
acs median gross
1
$600
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40037
fmr
1
$987
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40037
acs median gross
2
$899
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40037
fmr
2
$1,217
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40037
acs median gross
3
$1,107
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40037
fmr
3
$1,602
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40037
acs median gross
4
$1,203
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40037
fmr
4
$1,858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40037
acs median gross
5
$1,143
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40037
acs median gross
$936
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40037
acs recent mover gross
$1,128
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74066
acs median gross
0
$678
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74066
acs median gross
1
$738
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74066
acs median gross
2
$998
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74066
acs median gross
3
$1,226
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74066
acs median gross
4
$1,245
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74066
acs median gross
5
$1,104
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74066
acs median gross
$1,062
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74066
acs recent mover gross
$1,172
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 74066
payment standard 110
0
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74066
payment standard 90
0
$819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74066
safmr
0
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74066
payment standard 110
1
$1,056
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74066
payment standard 90
1
$864
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74066
safmr
1
$960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74066
payment standard 110
2
$1,309
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74066
payment standard 90
2
$1,071
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74066
safmr
2
$1,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74066
payment standard 110
3
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74066
payment standard 90
3
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74066
safmr
3
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74066
payment standard 110
4
$2,002
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74066
payment standard 90
4
$1,638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74066
safmr
4
$1,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.