Reads as: riskier than 14.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
GUTMAN ISAAC
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
AJ ARP LLC
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.65
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.36
0.15
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.08
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.88
3.46
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
115.4
3.65
0.36
0.70
2.59
3.08
0.0%
2025Q3
92
118.3
3.61
0.38
0.69
2.54
3.07
0.0%
2025Q2
91
115.4
3.68
0.45
0.57
2.66
3.07
0.0%
2025Q1
90
123.6
3.20
0.37
0.54
2.29
2.75
0.0%
2024Q4
92
118.6
3.38
0.42
0.55
2.41
3.00
0.0%
2024Q3
92
120.8
3.21
0.32
0.64
2.24
2.80
0.0%
2024Q2
91
107.2
3.20
0.23
0.66
2.32
2.79
0.0%
2024Q1
91
101.9
3.29
0.30
0.69
2.31
2.89
0.0%
2023Q4
92
105.7
3.52
0.23
0.80
2.49
3.05
0.0%
2023Q3
92
105.2
3.53
0.21
0.80
2.52
3.14
0.0%
2023Q2
91
102.9
3.64
0.23
0.78
2.63
3.22
0.0%
2023Q1
90
101.7
3.89
0.30
0.78
2.81
3.58
0.3%
2022Q4
92
113.1
3.88
0.19
0.83
2.85
3.48
1.8%
2022Q3
92
110.8
3.51
0.22
0.73
2.56
3.23
2.0%
2022Q2
91
106.2
3.54
0.23
0.69
2.61
3.01
2.5%
2022Q1
90
104.0
2.84
0.21
0.65
1.98
2.60
1.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
15
D × 7E × 6F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-14
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2026-02-13
2025-11-17
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-12-17
2025-06-13
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2025-07-13
2025-06-13
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-07-13
2024-11-27
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-12-27
2024-11-27
Health · complaint
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2024-12-27
2024-11-27
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-12-27
2024-07-25
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-08-24
2023-06-22
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-07-21
2023-06-22
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2023-07-21
2023-06-22
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2023-07-21
2023-06-22
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
E
2023-07-21
2023-06-22
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-07-21
2023-06-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-07-21
2023-06-22
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2023-07-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
26
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
JONESBORO REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
18%
2023-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
JONESBORO REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
18%
2024-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
AJ-ARP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GUTMAN, ISAAC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOFFMAN, HELEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JONESBORO REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KURZ, CHAIM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KURZ, SOLOMON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MONETTE, JEROD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-08
current
pecos_ownership
OWENS, BEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
PALM TREE HC ARKANSAS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-31
current
pecos_ownership
ALEXANDER HOFFMAN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
28%
2019-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ISAAC GUTMAN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
28%
2019-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACOB TAUB
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
28%
2019-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONESBORO REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
18%
2022-07-01
ended 2023-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
JONESBORO REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
18%
2021-07-01
ended 2022-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
JONESBORO REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
18%
2020-07-01
ended 2021-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
CHAIM HERZBERG
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2019-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BEN OWENS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAIM KURZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HELEN HOFFMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ISAAC GUTMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEROD MONETTE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-08-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SOLOMON KURZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$2,992,595
—
—
—
$210,850
15
propco
2024-06-30
$2,614,585
—
—
—
$159,909
15
propco
2023-06-30
$2,056,942
—
—
—
$124,462
15
propco
2022-06-30
$1,440,196
—
—
—
—
14
propco
2021-06-30
$673,880
—
—
—
—
7
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 05031
acs median gross
0
$814
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05031
fmr
0
$805
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05031
acs median gross
1
$757
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05031
fmr
1
$870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05031
acs median gross
2
$943
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05031
fmr
2
$1,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05031
acs median gross
3
$1,164
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05031
fmr
3
$1,402
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05031
acs median gross
4
$1,067
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05031
fmr
4
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05031
acs median gross
5
$1,125
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05031
acs median gross
$958
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05031
acs recent mover gross
$922
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72404
acs median gross
0
$866
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72404
acs median gross
1
$780
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72404
acs median gross
2
$993
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72404
acs median gross
3
$1,311
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72404
acs median gross
4
$1,586
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72404
acs median gross
$946
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72404
acs recent mover gross
$886
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 72404
payment standard 110
0
$913
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72404
payment standard 90
0
$747
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72404
safmr
0
$830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72404
payment standard 110
1
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72404
payment standard 90
1
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72404
safmr
1
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72404
payment standard 110
2
$1,177
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72404
payment standard 90
2
$963
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72404
safmr
2
$1,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72404
payment standard 110
3
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72404
payment standard 90
3
$1,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72404
safmr
3
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72404
payment standard 110
4
$1,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72404
payment standard 90
4
$1,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72404
safmr
4
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.