Composite
47.0 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 65.2 | 55.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 15.05 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 58.9 | 49.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 13.59 | in index |
| billing conduct | 51.9 | 40.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.98 | in index |
| chow risk | 43.9 | 50.0 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 5.07 | in index |
| staffing risk | 8.9 | 9.0 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 1.71 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 40.1 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 23.1 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 77.0 | D | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 55.8 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 1.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 49.7 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 9.0 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 74.8 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 54.8 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 66.1 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 55.9 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 49.5 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 49.5 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 9.0 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 9.0 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.94 | -0.70 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.43 | -0.28 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 2.00 | +1.06 | |
| Occupancy | 0.94 | -0.79 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.43 | -0.51 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CT median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.43 | 3.46 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.59 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 4.27 | 3.25 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.49 | 3.51 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 70.3 | 4.43 | 0.59 | 0.99 | 2.85 | 4.27 | 4.3% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 70.7 | 4.21 | 0.61 | 0.89 | 2.71 | 4.00 | 2.1% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 72.0 | 4.37 | 0.66 | 0.89 | 2.82 | 4.17 | 6.4% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 71.3 | 3.96 | 0.66 | 0.84 | 2.47 | 3.80 | 8.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 68.7 | 4.14 | 0.67 | 0.87 | 2.60 | 4.00 | 7.3% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 80.0 | 3.59 | 0.55 | 0.71 | 2.33 | 3.47 | 6.6% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 69.9 | 4.03 | 0.65 | 0.79 | 2.59 | 3.60 | 13.1% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 67.7 | 4.29 | 0.69 | 0.89 | 2.71 | 3.83 | 17.2% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 69.6 | 4.06 | 0.74 | 0.88 | 2.43 | 3.62 | 16.8% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 67.2 | 4.34 | 0.70 | 1.02 | 2.62 | 3.89 | 10.9% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 66.5 | 4.19 | 0.56 | 1.12 | 2.51 | 3.61 | 9.6% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 65.1 | 4.51 | 0.71 | 1.06 | 2.74 | 4.11 | 17.2% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 64.2 | 4.42 | 0.75 | 1.16 | 2.51 | 3.99 | 13.4% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 65.9 | 4.06 | 0.75 | 0.97 | 2.34 | 3.56 | 13.5% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 69.1 | 3.78 | 0.61 | 0.99 | 2.17 | 3.31 | 5.4% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 65.7 | 4.39 | 0.66 | 1.30 | 2.43 | 3.84 | 4.3% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-15 | Fine | $8,824 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-22 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2025-11-21 |
| 2025-09-22 | Health · complaint | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | D | 2025-11-21 |
| 2024-10-15 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2024-12-06 |
| 2024-01-08 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-02-28 |
| 2023-10-23 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | B | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-23 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | B | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-23 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-23 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-23 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-23 | Health | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | C | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-23 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-23 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | D | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-23 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-23 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-23 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-23 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | D | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-06-20 | Health · complaint | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | D | 2023-07-31 |
| 2023-06-20 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2023-07-31 |
| 2021-09-27 | Health | F0565 | Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility. | D | 2021-11-17 |
| 2021-09-27 | Health | F0572 | Give residents a notice of rights, rules, services and charges. | D | 2021-11-17 |
| 2021-09-27 | Health | F0574 | The resident has the right to receive notices in a format and a language he or she understands. | D | 2021-11-17 |
| 2021-09-27 | Health | F0577 | Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies. | D | 2021-11-17 |
| 2021-09-27 | Health | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2021-11-17 |
| 2021-09-27 | Health | F0694 | Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed. | E | 2021-11-17 |
| 2021-09-27 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2021-11-17 |
| 2019-05-17 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2019-06-07 |
| 2019-05-17 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2019-06-26 |
| 2019-05-17 | Health | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | D | 2019-06-12 |
| 2019-05-17 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2019-06-12 |
| 2019-05-17 | Health | F0773 | Provide or obtain laboratory tests/services when ordered and promptly tell the ordering practitioner of the results. | D | 2019-06-07 |
| 2019-05-17 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2019-06-07 |
| 2019-05-17 | Health | F0808 | Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law. | D | 2019-06-07 |
| 2019-05-17 | Health | F0838 | Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies. | E | 2019-06-26 |
| 2019-05-17 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2019-06-07 |
| 2019-05-17 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2019-06-12 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CM 5775 LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2023-10-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| CM 5775 LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2022-10-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| MOFFIE, CALVIN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2002-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DOLCE, TIM | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2014-12-19 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MOFFIE, CALVIN | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-01-07 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CALVIN MOFFIE | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 100% | 2015-01-07 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CALVIN MOFFIE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 2002-10-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CM 5775 LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2019-10-01 | ended 2020-09-30 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| CM 5775 LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2020-10-01 | ended 2021-09-30 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| CM 5775 LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2021-10-01 | ended 2022-09-30 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| TIM DOLCE | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2014-12-19 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | INGRAHAM MANOR REHAB AND NURSING | — | — | — | 128 | IM OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-15 | HAVENCARE AT LITCHFIELD WOODS | — | — | — | 160 | LITCHFIELD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-15 | HAVENCARE AT VALERIE MANOR | — | — | — | 151 | VALERIE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | SHADY KNOLL CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 128 | SHADY KNOLL ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | MAEFAIR CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 134 | MAEFAIR ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | GLASTONBURY CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 105 | GLASTONBURY ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | MANSFIELD CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 98 | MANSFIELD ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | EVERGREEN CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 180 | EVERGREEN ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | MONTOWESE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 120 | MONTOWESE ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | SHARON CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 88 | SHARON ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | BEACON BROOK CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 126 | BEACON BROOK ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | STONE BRIDGE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 154 | NEWTOWN ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 09170 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,170 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09170 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,299 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09170 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,621 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09170 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,807 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09170 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,048 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09170 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,032 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09170 | acs median gross | $1,525 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 09170 | acs recent mover gross | $1,879 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 06437 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,494 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06437 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,860 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06437 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,919 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06437 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,237 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06437 | acs median gross | $1,717 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 06437 | acs recent mover gross | $2,014 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 06437 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,727 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06437 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,413 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06437 | safmr | 0 | $1,570 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06437 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,002 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06437 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,638 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06437 | safmr | 1 | $1,820 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06437 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,475 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06437 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,025 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06437 | safmr | 2 | $2,250 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06437 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $3,058 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06437 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,502 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06437 | safmr | 3 | $2,780 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06437 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,608 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06437 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,952 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06437 | safmr | 4 | $3,280 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |