Reads as: riskier than 3.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.80
3.95
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.76
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.84
3.79
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.79
4.01
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
27.0
3.80
0.76
0.40
2.64
3.84
1.1%
2025Q3
92
27.2
3.81
0.79
0.47
2.55
3.82
0.0%
2025Q2
91
24.4
3.97
0.82
0.52
2.62
4.06
0.0%
2025Q1
90
25.4
4.00
0.93
0.47
2.61
4.05
0.0%
2024Q4
92
26.3
3.87
0.83
0.52
2.51
3.86
0.7%
2024Q3
92
28.7
3.72
0.59
0.69
2.44
3.66
7.9%
2024Q2
91
27.8
3.99
0.58
0.92
2.50
3.91
5.3%
2024Q1
91
26.6
4.38
0.50
1.20
2.68
4.17
16.3%
2023Q4
92
26.2
4.67
0.54
1.30
2.83
4.40
0.0%
2023Q3
92
28.8
3.87
0.53
1.08
2.26
3.67
0.0%
2023Q2
91
30.6
3.94
0.33
1.22
2.39
3.77
0.0%
2023Q1
90
26.5
4.30
0.36
1.38
2.56
3.94
0.0%
2022Q4
92
27.3
4.24
0.15
1.58
2.52
4.12
18.5%
2022Q3
92
22.7
3.15
0.08
1.10
1.97
3.41
17.5%
2022Q2
91
22.8
4.37
0.09
1.56
2.72
4.16
2.6%
2022Q1
90
21.4
4.60
0.14
1.64
2.83
4.55
0.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
20
D × 14E × 4F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-09-12
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-10-07
2024-09-12
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2024-10-07
2024-09-12
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-10-07
2024-09-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-10-07
2024-09-12
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
F
2024-10-07
2022-10-13
Health
F0687
Provide appropriate foot care.
D
2022-11-03
2022-10-13
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-11-03
2022-10-13
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
D
2022-11-03
2022-10-13
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2022-11-03
2022-10-13
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2022-11-03
2022-10-13
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2022-11-03
2022-10-13
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2022-11-03
2022-10-13
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2022-11-03
2022-10-13
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
D
2022-11-03
2019-06-27
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2019-07-26
2019-06-27
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2019-07-26
2019-06-27
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2019-07-26
2019-06-27
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2019-07-26
2019-06-27
Health
F0790
Provide routine and 24-hour emergency dental care for each resident.
E
2019-07-26
2019-06-27
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2019-07-26
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
54
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FRONT PORCH COMMUNITIES AND SERVICES
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
AKOPYAN, GEVORK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-12
current
pecos_ownership
CAIRNS, DAWN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
DURANTEAU, NANCY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORTE, VINCENT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANDY, JOANNE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HERZIG, RANDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-06-13
current
pecos_ownership
JACOBS, LAURA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KELLY, SEAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-06
current
pecos_ownership
KISAJJA, CHRISTINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
KROEKER, KEVIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARCELO, CHERRY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-19
current
pecos_ownership
MARCELO, CHERRY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCGOVERN, MARION
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCMULLIN, MARY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MERKIN, NICKOLAS
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-10
current
pecos_ownership
NELSON, HARRY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
OLSON, KARI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
PENNINGTON, PAIGE
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
PROCTOR, DEBORAH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAIRAM, SAMIR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SALVADOR, EDUARDO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-10-03
current
pecos_ownership
SALVADOR, EDUARDO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SPENCER, PETER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2026-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TONNU, DIEMLAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VRANICH, RACHEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-06-17
current
pecos_ownership
WESSON, OLIVER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHITTAKER, SUSAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-23
current
pecos_ownership
YUEN, CONNIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-03-06
current
pecos_ownership
PETER SPENCER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2026-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHERRY MARCELO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHERRY MARCELO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINA KISAJJA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-06-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CONNIE YUEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-03-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAWN CAIRNS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBORAH PROCTOR
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIEMLAN TONNU
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDUARDO SALVADOR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDUARDO SALVADOR
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-10-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEVORK AKOPYAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOANNE HANDY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARI OLSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN KROEKER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA JACOBS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARION MCGOVERN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY MCMULLIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NANCY DURANTEAU
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OLIVER WESSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RACHEL VRANICH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-06-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RANDY HERZIG
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-06-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMIR SAIRAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SEAN KELLY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-03-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN WHITTAKER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VINCENT FORTE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-03-31
$620,062
—
—
—
—
11
—
2024-03-31
$576,451
—
—
—
—
11
—
2023-03-31
$500,836
—
—
—
—
11
—
2022-03-31
$1,525,773
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-03-31
$1,788,480
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 06001
acs median gross
0
$1,746
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06001
fmr
0
$2,142
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06001
acs median gross
1
$2,046
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06001
fmr
1
$2,385
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06001
acs median gross
2
$2,552
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06001
fmr
2
$2,912
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06001
acs median gross
3
$3,051
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06001
fmr
3
$3,724
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06001
acs median gross
4
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06001
fmr
4
$4,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06001
acs median gross
5
$3,410
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06001
acs median gross
$2,357
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06001
acs recent mover gross
$2,636
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94610
acs median gross
0
$1,833
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94610
acs median gross
1
$2,100
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94610
acs median gross
2
$2,641
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94610
acs median gross
3
$3,081
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94610
acs median gross
4
$2,605
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94610
acs median gross
5
$2,281
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94610
acs median gross
$2,209
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94610
acs recent mover gross
$2,305
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 94610
payment standard 110
0
$2,398
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94610
payment standard 90
0
$1,962
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94610
safmr
0
$2,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94610
payment standard 110
1
$2,673
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94610
payment standard 90
1
$2,187
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94610
safmr
1
$2,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94610
payment standard 110
2
$3,267
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94610
payment standard 90
2
$2,673
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94610
safmr
2
$2,970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94610
payment standard 110
3
$4,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94610
payment standard 90
3
$3,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94610
safmr
3
$3,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94610
payment standard 110
4
$4,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94610
payment standard 90
4
$4,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94610
safmr
4
$4,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.