Reads as: riskier than 0.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
20 chains
CLIFTONLARSONALLEN LLP
98 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
FRIENDS SERVICES FOR THE AGING
18 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
RKL LLP
52 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
HEALTHPRO HERITAGE LLC
12 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
3
2024Q4 HPRD
This facility
OH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
9.09
3.24
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
2.35
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
8.83
3.11
3.11
—
Weekday total
9.20
3.29
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2024Q4
92
4.6
9.09
2.35
4.87
1.87
8.83
3.0%
2024Q3
92
5.1
7.61
2.10
4.38
1.13
7.49
0.2%
2024Q2
91
4.5
8.56
2.42
5.04
1.10
8.58
0.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
0
No deficiencies on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
64
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
KENDAL AT OBERLIN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
—
current
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN, JOYCE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-21
current
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN, JOYCE
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-18
current
pecos_ownership
BIELEFELD, ROGER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-21
current
pecos_ownership
CHUANG, WUU-SHUNG
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2019-01-15
current
pecos_ownership
CLIFTONLARSONALLEN LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CONWAY, ROLLIN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-20
current
pecos_ownership
COUNTY OF LORAIN OHIO
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2021-07-29
current
pecos_ownership
DERSTINE, ANDRIA
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2021-01-19
current
pecos_ownership
FRIENDS SERVICES FOR THE AGING
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-01-24
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTHPRO HERITAGE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HUNTINGTON NATIONAL BANK
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2021-07-29
current
pecos_ownership
KONKOLY, THOMAS
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-17
current
pecos_ownership
MANDEREN, ELIZABETH
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-01-19
current
pecos_ownership
MANNS-JAMES, LAURA
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-20
current
pecos_ownership
MCIVER, ANNETTE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-01-18
current
pecos_ownership
MOORE, SCOTT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NEWMAN, GEORGIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-02-11
current
pecos_ownership
NIEVES, MARGARITA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2026-01-20
current
pecos_ownership
O'MALLEY, ANN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2001-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
OLIN, GARY
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2021-01-19
current
pecos_ownership
PEACE CHURCH RISK RETENTION GROUP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PEACE CHURCH RISK RETENTION GROUP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-20
current
pecos_ownership
REEVES, GAYLE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-21
current
pecos_ownership
RKL LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHULTZ, ELIZABETH
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2021-01-19
current
pecos_ownership
SHIFERAW, MICHAEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-01-17
current
pecos_ownership
STORER, DANIEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-01-15
current
pecos_ownership
STYER, DANIEL
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-21
current
pecos_ownership
SZMANIA, AMY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-21
current
pecos_ownership
TERRELL, STACY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-20
current
pecos_ownership
TERRELL, STACY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2007-08-13
current
pecos_ownership
THE KENDAL CORPORATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1993-10-04
current
pecos_ownership
VILENSKY, SETH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-29
current
pecos_ownership
VILLARREAL, JOAN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2019-01-15
current
pecos_ownership
VILLARREAL, JOAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-01-19
current
pecos_ownership
WOOD, GAIL
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-21
current
pecos_ownership
ANN O'MALLEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2001-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN VILLARREAL
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2021-01-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SETH VILENSKY
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-01-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STACY TERRELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2007-08-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMY SZMANIA
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDRIA DERSTINE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-01-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANNETTE MCIVER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-01-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL STORER
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2019-01-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL STYER
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH MANDEREN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2021-01-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH SCHULTZ
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-01-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GAIL WOOD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARY OLIN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2021-01-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GAYLE REEVES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGIA NEWMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-02-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN VILLARREAL
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2019-01-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOYCE BENJAMIN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOYCE BENJAMIN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA MANNS-JAMES
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARGARITA NIEVES
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL SHIFERAW
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-01-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROGER BIELEFELD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROLLIN CONWAY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2026-01-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT MOORE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STACY TERRELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS KONKOLY
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WUU-SHUNG CHUANG
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2019-01-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
2
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2021-12-31
$554,044
—
—
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$598,401
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 39093
acs median gross
0
$599
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39093
fmr
0
$933
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39093
acs median gross
1
$734
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39093
fmr
1
$1,058
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39093
acs median gross
2
$966
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39093
fmr
2
$1,279
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39093
acs median gross
3
$1,129
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39093
fmr
3
$1,646
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39093
acs median gross
4
$1,175
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39093
fmr
4
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39093
acs median gross
5
$1,391
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39093
acs median gross
$966
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39093
acs recent mover gross
$1,070
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44074
acs median gross
2
$895
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44074
acs median gross
3
$1,164
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44074
acs median gross
4
$1,554
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44074
acs median gross
$964
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44074
acs recent mover gross
$945
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 44074
payment standard 110
0
$946
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44074
payment standard 90
0
$774
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44074
safmr
0
$860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44074
payment standard 110
1
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44074
payment standard 90
1
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44074
safmr
1
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44074
payment standard 110
2
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44074
payment standard 90
2
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44074
safmr
2
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44074
payment standard 110
3
$1,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44074
payment standard 90
3
$1,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44074
safmr
3
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44074
payment standard 110
4
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44074
payment standard 90
4
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44074
safmr
4
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.