Composite
60.6 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 70.2 | 65.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 16.20 | in index |
| staffing risk | 80.4 | 80.4 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 15.46 | in index |
| billing conduct | 65.4 | 45.6 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 15.09 | in index |
| chow risk | 25.2 | 28.8 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 2.91 | in index |
| financial risk | 11.7 | 20.6 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 2.70 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 45.6 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 24.4 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 33.1 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 20.6 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 65.2 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 80.4 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 71.0 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 51.0 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 24.8 | A | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 24.7 | A | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 65.1 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 65.1 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 80.4 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 80.4 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.98 | -0.82 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 4.87 | -0.08 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.98 | -0.98 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 4.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.80 | +0.18 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.41 | +0.17 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | NC median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.80 | 3.08 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.14 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.59 | 2.93 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.88 | 3.14 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 126.5 | 2.80 | 0.14 | 0.62 | 2.04 | 2.59 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 126.1 | 2.69 | 0.18 | 0.51 | 2.00 | 2.49 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 125.6 | 2.51 | 0.17 | 0.48 | 1.86 | 2.21 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 126.4 | 2.27 | 0.14 | 0.43 | 1.70 | 2.12 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 126.8 | 2.38 | 0.08 | 0.49 | 1.81 | 2.29 | 5.3% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 124.6 | 2.18 | 0.02 | 0.28 | 1.87 | 2.06 | 1.1% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 124.7 | 1.17 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.92 | 1.08 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 123.4 | 2.34 | 0.08 | 0.45 | 1.80 | 2.04 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 122.9 | 2.37 | 0.07 | 0.57 | 1.73 | 2.13 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 122.4 | 2.42 | 0.09 | 0.60 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 123.9 | 2.48 | 0.10 | 0.68 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 121.8 | 2.08 | 0.07 | 0.71 | 1.31 | 1.83 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 120.1 | 1.85 | 0.04 | 0.64 | 1.17 | 1.62 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 120.7 | 1.84 | 0.08 | 0.63 | 1.13 | 1.65 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 122.7 | 1.87 | 0.05 | 0.51 | 1.30 | 1.76 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 121.5 | 2.11 | 0.08 | 0.53 | 1.50 | 1.81 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-26 | Fine | $14,945 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-13 | Health · complaint | F0627 | Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge. | D | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-08-13 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-08-13 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-08-13 | Health · complaint | F0908 | Keep all essential equipment working safely. | D | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-05-23 | Health · complaint | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-05-23 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-05-23 | Health · complaint | F0628 | Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies. | B | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-05-23 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | B | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-05-23 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-05-23 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-05-23 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-05-23 | Health · complaint | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-05-23 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | E | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-05-23 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-05-23 | Health | F0802 | Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service. | F | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-05-23 | Health · complaint | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | D | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-05-23 | Health · complaint | F0809 | Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times. | F | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-05-23 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-05-23 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | F | 2025-06-20 |
| 2024-08-27 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | B | 2024-09-11 |
| 2024-04-26 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-26 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | E | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-26 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | G | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-26 | Health · complaint | F0745 | Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life. | D | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-26 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | F | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-26 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-26 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | E | 2024-05-24 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health · complaint | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2023-12-18 |
| 2023-04-11 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | J | 2023-03-26 |
| 2023-04-11 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | E | 2023-05-08 |
| 2023-04-11 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | J | 2023-03-26 |
| 2023-04-11 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2023-05-08 |
| 2023-04-11 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2023-05-08 |
| 2023-04-11 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-05-08 |
| 2023-04-11 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | E | 2023-05-08 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DONALD BEAVER | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2009-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ALAN BEAVER | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 0% | 2017-11-27 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CHOICE HEALTH MANAGEMENT, SERV LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 0% | 2009-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-15 | Juniper Gardens Center for Nursing and Rehabilitat | — | — | — | 50 | WILKINSON BLVD OPERATING COMPANY, LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Warsaw Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center | — | — | — | 100 | WARSAW OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Walnut Cove Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 511 WINDMILL STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Wilora Lake Healthcare | — | — | — | 70 | 6001 WILORA LAKE ROAD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Clay County Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 86 VALLEY HIDEAWAY DRIVE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Emerald Ridge Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 100 | 25 REYNOLDS MOUNTAIN BOULEVARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Willowbrook Rehabilitation and Care | — | — | — | 76 | 333 EAST LEE AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Westwood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 68 | 625 ASHLAND STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Hibriten Mountain Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 100 | 2030 HARPER AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Forrest Oakes Healthcare | — | — | — | 60 | 620 HEATHWOOD DRIVE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Cardinal Healthcare and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 63 | 931 NORTH ASPEN STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Valley View Care and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 76 | 551 KENT STREET OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 37085 | acs median gross | 0 | $903 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37085 | fmr | 0 | $805 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37085 | acs median gross | 1 | $720 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37085 | fmr | 1 | $810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37085 | acs median gross | 2 | $909 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37085 | fmr | 2 | $980 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37085 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,184 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37085 | fmr | 3 | $1,363 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37085 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,761 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37085 | fmr | 4 | $1,644 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37085 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,277 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37085 | acs median gross | $1,112 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 37085 | acs recent mover gross | $1,560 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 27546 | acs median gross | 1 | $952 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 27546 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,041 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 27546 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,315 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 27546 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,359 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 27546 | acs median gross | $1,136 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 27546 | acs recent mover gross | $1,509 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 27546 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $847 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27546 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $693 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27546 | safmr | 0 | $770 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27546 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $858 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27546 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $702 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27546 | safmr | 1 | $780 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27546 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,034 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27546 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $846 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27546 | safmr | 2 | $940 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27546 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,452 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27546 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,188 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27546 | safmr | 3 | $1,320 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27546 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,738 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27546 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,422 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27546 | safmr | 4 | $1,580 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |