1500 WEST MAIN STREET, WALNUT RIDGE, AR 72476 · CCN 045151 · chain JEJ ASSETS LP
Composite
50.1 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
119
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 50.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.24
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.09
0.15
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.80
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.41
3.46
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
91.8
4.24
0.09
0.90
3.24
3.80
0.0%
2025Q3
92
96.5
3.78
0.13
0.79
2.86
3.48
0.0%
2025Q2
91
96.8
3.71
0.22
0.75
2.74
3.47
0.0%
2025Q1
90
96.7
3.62
0.26
0.78
2.59
3.29
0.0%
2024Q4
92
96.5
3.69
0.29
0.76
2.64
3.23
0.0%
2024Q3
92
95.6
3.84
0.27
0.71
2.85
3.42
0.0%
2024Q2
91
91.7
3.85
0.33
0.68
2.84
3.56
0.0%
2024Q1
91
94.6
3.67
0.25
0.66
2.75
3.39
0.0%
2023Q4
92
90.8
4.37
0.26
0.86
3.25
3.94
0.0%
2023Q3
92
90.7
3.83
0.29
0.73
2.82
3.38
0.0%
2023Q2
91
82.2
3.62
0.34
0.70
2.58
3.28
0.0%
2023Q1
90
76.2
3.70
0.24
0.81
2.65
3.49
0.0%
2022Q4
92
73.7
3.20
0.19
0.76
2.24
2.70
0.0%
2022Q3
92
71.3
3.75
0.28
0.92
2.55
3.47
0.0%
2022Q2
91
57.8
3.75
0.32
0.84
2.60
3.40
0.0%
2022Q1
90
47.5
3.75
0.30
0.89
2.56
3.16
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
D
2025-01-17
2024-12-20
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2025-01-17
2023-12-21
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2024-01-12
2023-12-21
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-01-12
2023-12-21
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-01-12
2023-12-21
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-01-12
2023-12-21
Health
F0865
Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities.
E
2024-01-12
2022-09-23
Health
F0569
Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death.
E
2022-10-14
2022-09-23
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2022-10-14
2022-09-23
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2022-10-14
2022-09-23
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2022-10-14
2022-09-23
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2022-10-14
2022-09-23
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2022-10-14
2022-09-23
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
E
2022-10-14
2022-09-23
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-10-14
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
4P2T1 OPS HOLDING LP
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
COLUMBIA ASSETS
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
COLUMBIA ASSETS
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
TEAM STAFFING
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
TEAM STAFFING
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
WALNUT RIDGE ASSETS
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
WALNUT RIDGE ASSETS
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ALEXARK1 LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ALEXARK1 LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
EDDINGER, EATHAN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-08-05
current
pecos_ownership
JEJ ASSETS LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JEJ MANAGEMENT, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PONTHIE, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PONTHIE, SHARLOT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
COLUMBIA ASSETS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
COLUMBIA ASSETS
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
COLUMBIA ASSETS
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
TEAM STAFFING
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
TEAM STAFFING
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
WALNUT RIDGE ASSETS
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
WALNUT RIDGE ASSETS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
WALNUT RIDGE ASSETS
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JOHN PONTHIE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHARLOT PONTHIE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EATHAN EDDINGER
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-08-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$6,986,813
—
—
$287,780
$4,664,536
9
propco
2023-12-31
$6,477,500
—
—
$293,080
$4,100,584
9
propco
2022-12-31
$4,399,888
—
—
$248,423
$3,089,176
9
propco
2021-12-31
$2,900,494
—
—
$211,155
$2,247,033
9
propco
2020-12-31
$3,715,898
$191
—
$251,557
$2,892,399
9
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 05075
fmr
0
$630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05075
acs median gross
1
$411
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05075
fmr
1
$671
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05075
acs median gross
2
$683
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05075
fmr
2
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05075
acs median gross
3
$904
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05075
fmr
3
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05075
acs median gross
4
$1,203
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05075
fmr
4
$1,375
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05075
acs median gross
$697
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05075
acs recent mover gross
$783
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72476
acs median gross
1
$388
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72476
acs median gross
2
$716
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72476
acs median gross
3
$951
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72476
acs median gross
4
$1,176
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72476
acs median gross
$784
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72476
acs recent mover gross
$804
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 72476
payment standard 110
0
$704
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72476
payment standard 90
0
$576
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72476
safmr
0
$640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72476
payment standard 110
1
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72476
payment standard 90
1
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72476
safmr
1
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72476
payment standard 110
2
$979
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72476
payment standard 90
2
$801
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72476
safmr
2
$890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72476
payment standard 110
3
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72476
payment standard 90
3
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72476
safmr
3
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72476
payment standard 110
4
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72476
payment standard 90
4
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72476
safmr
4
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.