Reads as: riskier than 97.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
TAUB JACOB
20 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
GUTMAN ISAAC
22 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
HOFFMAN ALEXANDER
20 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
AJ ARP LLC
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.81
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.14
0.15
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.62
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.89
3.46
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
130.2
2.81
0.14
0.64
2.02
2.62
0.0%
2025Q3
92
117.0
3.24
0.14
0.71
2.39
2.94
0.0%
2025Q2
91
119.8
3.29
0.17
0.69
2.43
3.01
0.0%
2025Q1
90
116.5
3.27
0.17
0.73
2.37
2.96
0.0%
2024Q4
92
116.6
3.29
0.18
0.70
2.41
3.02
0.0%
2024Q3
92
121.1
3.41
0.21
0.63
2.58
3.21
1.5%
2024Q2
91
106.0
3.44
0.13
0.69
2.62
3.07
0.0%
2024Q1
91
107.8
3.44
0.14
0.76
2.53
3.12
7.7%
2023Q4
92
106.3
3.90
0.13
0.92
2.84
3.49
7.0%
2023Q3
92
99.1
3.94
0.10
1.04
2.80
3.60
2.4%
2023Q2
91
92.4
4.25
0.08
1.14
3.03
3.98
2.4%
2023Q1
90
108.1
4.34
0.18
0.96
3.20
4.11
17.1%
2022Q4
92
112.6
3.88
0.16
0.90
2.82
3.50
21.0%
2022Q3
92
108.5
3.99
0.15
1.00
2.84
3.58
13.2%
2022Q2
91
104.7
3.85
0.15
0.97
2.72
3.41
6.6%
2022Q1
90
112.8
2.85
0.10
0.93
1.82
2.30
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-04-23
2026-03-26
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-04-12
2026-03-26
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2026-04-23
2026-03-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-04-23
2025-03-13
Health · complaint
F0838
Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies.
E
2025-03-25
2024-10-03
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2024-11-02
2024-10-03
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-11-02
2024-10-03
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2024-11-02
2024-10-03
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-11-02
2024-05-03
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-05-22
2023-10-26
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2023-11-20
2023-10-26
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2023-11-20
2023-10-26
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2023-11-20
2023-10-26
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2023-11-20
2023-10-26
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
E
2023-11-20
2023-10-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-11-20
2023-10-26
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
E
2023-11-20
2023-10-26
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
2023-11-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
29
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
SEARCY REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
18%
2024-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
SEARCY REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
18%
2023-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
AJ-ARP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FLUDER, KARRY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-11
current
pecos_ownership
GUTMAN, ISAAC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOFFMAN, ALEXANDER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOFFMAN, HELEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KURZ, CHAIM
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-12
current
pecos_ownership
KURZ, SOLOMON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PALM TREE HC ARKANSAS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SEARCY REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHERWOOD, CHAD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
TAUB, JACOB
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-30
current
pecos_ownership
ALEXANDER HOFFMAN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
28%
2019-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ISAAC GUTMAN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
28%
2019-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACOB TAUB
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
28%
2019-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SEARCY REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
18%
2022-07-01
ended 2023-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
SEARCY REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
18%
2020-07-01
ended 2021-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
SEARCY REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
18%
2021-07-01
ended 2022-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
CHAIM HERZBERG
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2019-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALEXANDER HOFFMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAD SHERWOOD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HELEN HOFFMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ISAAC GUTMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACOB TAUB
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARRY FLUDER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SOLOMON KURZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$2,444,275
—
—
—
$208,044
15
propco
2024-06-30
$2,609,072
—
—
—
$163,850
15
propco
2023-06-30
$2,024,476
—
—
—
$122,913
15
propco
2022-06-30
$1,543,258
—
—
—
—
14
propco
2021-06-30
$584,980
—
—
—
—
7
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 05145
acs median gross
0
$821
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05145
fmr
0
$630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05145
acs median gross
1
$601
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05145
fmr
1
$734
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05145
acs median gross
2
$832
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05145
fmr
2
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05145
acs median gross
3
$1,007
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05145
fmr
3
$1,149
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05145
acs median gross
4
$1,129
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05145
fmr
4
$1,165
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05145
acs median gross
5
$1,170
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05145
acs median gross
$850
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05145
acs recent mover gross
$869
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72143
acs median gross
0
$874
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72143
acs median gross
1
$646
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72143
acs median gross
2
$874
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72143
acs median gross
3
$1,097
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72143
acs median gross
4
$779
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72143
acs median gross
5
$1,518
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72143
acs median gross
$904
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72143
acs recent mover gross
$831
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 72143
payment standard 110
0
$715
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 90
0
$585
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
safmr
0
$650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 110
1
$836
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 90
1
$684
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
safmr
1
$760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 110
2
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 90
2
$819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
safmr
2
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 110
3
$1,309
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 90
3
$1,071
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
safmr
3
$1,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 110
4
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 90
4
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
safmr
4
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.