Composite
35.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 90.6 | 88.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.91 | in index |
| financial risk | 73.2 | 61.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 16.89 | in index |
| staffing risk | 13.7 | 13.8 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 2.63 | in index |
| chow risk | 21.2 | 20.5 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 2.45 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.00 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 16.0 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 61.4 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 88.2 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 13.8 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 72.9 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 52.9 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 74.0 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 59.7 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 88.1 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 88.1 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 13.8 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 13.8 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Occupancy | 0.91 | -0.60 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.16 | -0.22 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 12.00 | -0.80 | |
| Occupancy | 0.91 | -0.66 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.16 | -0.40 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | VT median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.16 | 3.66 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.90 | 3.46 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.26 | 3.81 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 54.3 | 4.16 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 2.92 | 3.90 | 2.5% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 52.1 | 4.22 | 0.59 | 0.71 | 2.91 | 3.90 | 2.9% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 53.4 | 3.62 | 0.43 | 0.56 | 2.62 | 3.39 | 1.6% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 52.5 | 3.50 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 2.31 | 3.27 | 2.4% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 51.6 | 3.91 | 0.45 | 0.92 | 2.55 | 3.63 | 12.4% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 52.9 | 3.78 | 0.44 | 0.85 | 2.50 | 3.49 | 14.3% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 53.3 | 4.13 | 0.46 | 0.85 | 2.83 | 3.90 | 18.6% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 53.3 | 3.66 | 0.32 | 0.96 | 2.38 | 3.22 | 36.3% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 54.0 | 4.05 | 0.21 | 1.04 | 2.80 | 3.56 | 42.2% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 55.9 | 3.61 | 0.33 | 0.77 | 2.50 | 3.46 | 37.3% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 55.1 | 3.25 | 0.48 | 0.64 | 2.14 | 2.90 | 19.1% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 53.6 | 3.18 | 0.36 | 0.65 | 2.18 | 2.83 | 18.6% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 52.9 | 3.26 | 0.36 | 0.67 | 2.23 | 2.98 | 19.7% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 50.4 | 3.22 | 0.38 | 0.76 | 2.08 | 2.96 | 19.1% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-04 | Fine | $87,896 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-12-04 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0628 | Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies. | D | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | F | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0923 | Have enough outside ventilation via a window or mechanical ventilation, or both. | E | 2026-02-25 |
| 2024-10-30 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-07-26 |
| 2024-10-30 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-12-15 |
| 2024-10-30 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-12-15 |
| 2024-10-30 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-12-15 |
| 2024-10-30 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-12-15 |
| 2024-10-30 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-12-15 |
| 2024-10-30 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2024-12-15 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | L | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | E | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0740 | Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services. | E | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | E | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0835 | Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently. | F | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0837 | Establish a governing body that is legally responsible for establishing and implementing policies for managing and operating the facility and appoints a properly licensed administrator responsible for managing the facility. | F | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0840 | Employ or obtain outside professional resources to provide services in the nursing home when the facility does not employ a qualified professional to furnish a required service. | F | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0843 | Have an agreement with at least one or more hospitals certified by Medicare or Medicaid to make sure residents can be moved quickly to the hospital when they need medical care. | F | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | F | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-12-04 | Health | F0944 | Conduct mandatory training, for all staff, on the facility’s Quality Assurance and Performance Improvement Program. | C | 2024-01-06 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health · complaint | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2023-10-25 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health · complaint | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | D | 2023-10-25 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BURKS, BRUCE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 1995-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DICKEY, KARI | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-05-23 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DICKEY, KARI | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2013-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ELLIS, M BRADFORD | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2002-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GOODWIN, ALFRED | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 1995-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JEWITT, JUDY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2011-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MOUSSEAU, CORBY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2022-07-18 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ALFRED GOODWIN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 1995-11-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BRUCE BURKS | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 1995-11-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JUDY JEWITT | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 2011-11-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| M BRADFORD ELLIS | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 75% | 2002-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CORBY MOUSSEAU | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2022-07-18 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KARI DICKEY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2013-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KARI DICKEY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-05-23 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-18 | Rutland Healthcare & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 103 | 46 NICHOLS STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2021-06-01 | Center for Living & Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 130 | CLR OPCO LLC |
| 2018-12-17 | Elderwood at Burlington | — | — | — | 150 | 98 STARR FARM ROAD OPERATING COMPANY, LLC |
| 2018-12-14 | Birchwood Terrace Rehab & Healthcare | — | — | — | 160 | BIRCHWOOD OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 50025 | acs median gross | 0 | $824 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 50025 | acs median gross | 1 | $888 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 50025 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,223 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 50025 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,229 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 50025 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,700 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 50025 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,813 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 50025 | acs median gross | $1,056 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 50025 | acs recent mover gross | $1,254 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 05354 | acs median gross | 0 | $805 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 05354 | acs median gross | 1 | $694 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 05354 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,107 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 05354 | acs median gross | $1,023 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 05354 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,122 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05354 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $918 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05354 | safmr | 0 | $1,020 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05354 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,210 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05354 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $990 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05354 | safmr | 1 | $1,100 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05354 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,485 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05354 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,215 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05354 | safmr | 2 | $1,350 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05354 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,782 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05354 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,458 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05354 | safmr | 3 | $1,620 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05354 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,969 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05354 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,611 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 05354 | safmr | 4 | $1,790 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |