Reads as: riskier than 58.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MIRLIS ELIYAHU
18 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.15
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.76
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.24
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.11
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
92.1
3.15
0.76
0.16
2.22
3.24
0.0%
2025Q3
92
96.0
3.29
0.71
0.27
2.32
3.32
0.0%
2025Q2
91
98.0
3.17
0.55
0.40
2.22
3.20
0.0%
2025Q1
90
92.2
3.10
0.50
0.46
2.14
3.24
0.0%
2024Q4
92
93.2
3.01
0.36
0.55
2.09
3.05
0.0%
2024Q3
92
95.2
3.13
0.39
0.54
2.20
2.98
0.0%
2024Q2
91
96.1
2.98
0.35
0.60
2.02
2.77
0.0%
2024Q1
91
94.7
3.06
0.30
0.71
2.04
2.85
0.0%
2023Q4
92
85.7
2.99
0.33
0.61
2.04
2.79
0.0%
2023Q3
92
68.6
0.45
0.05
0.10
0.30
0.39
0.0%
2023Q2
91
65.9
3.64
0.15
1.11
2.38
3.14
0.0%
2023Q1
90
70.7
3.73
0.31
1.04
2.39
3.34
0.0%
2022Q4
92
80.9
3.57
0.28
1.00
2.29
3.26
0.0%
2022Q3
92
79.3
3.91
0.20
1.06
2.65
3.42
0.0%
2022Q2
91
78.1
3.95
0.26
1.12
2.57
3.34
0.0%
2022Q1
90
69.1
4.34
0.20
1.11
3.03
3.89
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
I
2026-01-17
2025-12-17
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2026-02-02
2025-12-17
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2026-02-02
2025-12-17
Health · complaint
F0835
Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently.
E
2026-01-17
2025-08-12
Health · complaint
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2025-09-04
2025-05-24
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
K
2025-06-30
2025-05-24
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
K
2025-06-30
2025-05-24
Health · complaint
F0835
Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently.
K
2025-06-30
2025-01-09
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2025-02-07
2024-09-25
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-11-04
2024-09-25
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
E
2024-11-04
2024-09-25
Health · complaint
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
2024-11-04
2022-09-09
Health
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
D
2022-10-10
2022-09-09
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2022-10-10
2022-09-09
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2022-10-10
2022-09-09
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2022-10-10
2021-03-18
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2021-04-19
2021-03-18
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2021-04-19
2021-03-18
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2021-04-19
2021-03-18
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2021-04-19
2021-03-18
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2021-05-19
2021-03-18
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2021-04-19
2021-03-18
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2021-04-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
15
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
1755 18TH STREET SARASOTA HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MIRLIS, ELIYAHU
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
99%
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MIRLIS, ELIYAHU
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROCHE, DWIGHT
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROCHE, DWIGHT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
THORNGREN III, DANIEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
THORNGREN III, DANIEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
DWIGHT ROCHE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIYAHU MIRLIS
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2023-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VRD 10 HLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIYAHU MIRLIS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
99%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARAH BECHER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL THORNGREN
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL THORNGREN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DWIGHT ROCHE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
28
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12115
acs median gross
0
$1,579
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
fmr
0
$1,418
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12115
acs median gross
1
$1,628
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
fmr
1
$1,686
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12115
acs median gross
2
$1,789
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
fmr
2
$1,958
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12115
acs median gross
3
$2,074
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
fmr
3
$2,537
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12115
acs median gross
4
$2,216
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
fmr
4
$3,027
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12115
acs median gross
5
$2,963
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
acs median gross
$1,818
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
acs recent mover gross
$2,167
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 34230
payment standard 110
0
$1,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34230
payment standard 90
0
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34230
safmr
0
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34230
payment standard 110
1
$1,936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34230
payment standard 90
1
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34230
safmr
1
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34230
payment standard 110
2
$2,255
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34230
payment standard 90
2
$1,845
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34230
safmr
2
$2,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34230
payment standard 110
3
$2,926
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34230
payment standard 90
3
$2,394
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34230
safmr
3
$2,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34230
payment standard 110
4
$3,487
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34230
payment standard 90
4
$2,853
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34230
safmr
4
$3,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.