707 SHEPERDSTOWN RD, MECHANICSBURG, PA 17055 · CCN 396133
Composite
89.8 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
48
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 89.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.66
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.84
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.89
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.57
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
36.1
3.66
0.84
0.96
1.86
3.89
0.0%
2025Q3
92
38.7
3.55
0.73
1.05
1.77
3.69
0.0%
2025Q2
91
40.0
3.60
0.79
0.95
1.87
3.64
0.0%
2025Q1
90
35.4
6.54
1.24
1.66
3.64
6.20
9.1%
2024Q4
92
32.4
4.76
1.03
1.35
2.38
4.88
0.0%
2024Q3
92
31.9
4.48
0.97
1.10
2.41
4.25
0.0%
2024Q2
91
31.5
4.21
0.80
1.12
2.30
4.08
5.4%
2024Q1
91
27.8
4.44
0.95
1.09
2.41
4.75
12.2%
2023Q4
92
25.7
4.62
1.24
1.16
2.21
4.54
4.0%
2023Q3
92
25.6
5.08
1.35
1.26
2.47
5.07
22.8%
2023Q2
91
26.9
4.04
1.21
0.97
1.86
3.76
17.5%
2023Q1
90
26.2
3.45
1.20
0.69
1.56
3.28
40.6%
2022Q4
92
41.9
2.49
0.47
0.74
1.28
2.45
53.1%
2022Q3
92
47.5
3.08
0.74
0.73
1.61
2.89
51.6%
2022Q2
91
36.4
3.70
0.94
0.98
1.78
3.63
50.6%
2022Q1
90
40.4
3.69
0.81
1.00
1.88
3.51
51.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
29
D × 18E × 9F × 1G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-08-28
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2025-09-30
2025-08-28
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-28
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-28
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-28
Health
F0808
Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law.
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-28
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-09-30
2025-08-28
Health
F0837
Establish a governing body that is legally responsible for establishing and implementing policies for managing and operating the facility and appoints a properly licensed administrator responsible for managing the facility.
E
2025-09-30
2025-08-28
Health
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
E
2025-09-30
2025-08-28
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-09-30
2025-08-28
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
D
2025-09-30
2025-01-30
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2025-02-10
2024-09-19
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
D
2024-10-05
2024-09-19
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2024-10-12
2024-09-19
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-10-05
2024-09-19
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2024-10-04
2024-09-19
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
E
2024-10-12
2024-09-19
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
D
2024-10-05
2024-01-04
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2024-02-05
2024-01-04
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-01-22
2023-10-05
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2023-11-28
2023-10-05
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2023-11-28
2023-10-05
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2023-11-28
2023-10-05
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-11-28
2023-10-05
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2023-11-28
2023-10-05
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2023-11-28
2023-10-05
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-11-28
2023-10-05
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-11-28
2023-10-05
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-11-28
2023-10-05
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
D
2023-11-28
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
22
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
MECHANICSBURG SENIOR CARE HOLDINGS LP
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2012-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
HOLLINGER, BRAD
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
41%
2012-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
BEAVER, MICHAEL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
14%
2012-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
HAUCK, DAVID
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2012-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
KOVACS, PAUL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2012-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
FEGAN, CLINT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2012-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
HAUCK, DAVID
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-10-26
current
pecos_ownership
HOLLINGER MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOLLINGER, BRAD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOLLINGER, KELLY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MID PENN BANK
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2012-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
MREC, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2012-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
REESE, RALPH
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-12-19
current
pecos_ownership
BRAD HOLLINGER
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLY HOLLINGER
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRAD HOLLINGER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
41%
2012-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL BEAVER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
14%
2012-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID HAUCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2012-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL KOVACS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2012-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CLINT FEGAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2012-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID HAUCK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-10-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RALPH REESE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-12-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42041
acs median gross
0
$1,225
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42041
fmr
0
$1,058
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42041
acs median gross
1
$968
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42041
fmr
1
$1,212
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42041
acs median gross
2
$1,279
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42041
fmr
2
$1,493
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42041
acs median gross
3
$1,543
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42041
fmr
3
$1,920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42041
acs median gross
4
$1,812
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42041
fmr
4
$1,977
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42041
acs median gross
5
$1,761
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42041
acs median gross
$1,249
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42041
acs recent mover gross
$1,453
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17055
acs median gross
0
$1,566
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17055
acs median gross
1
$1,031
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17055
acs median gross
2
$1,603
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17055
acs median gross
3
$1,658
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17055
acs median gross
4
$1,287
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17055
acs median gross
$1,446
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17055
acs recent mover gross
$1,625
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 17055
payment standard 110
0
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17055
payment standard 90
0
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17055
safmr
0
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17055
payment standard 110
1
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17055
payment standard 90
1
$1,215
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17055
safmr
1
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17055
payment standard 110
2
$1,837
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17055
payment standard 90
2
$1,503
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17055
safmr
2
$1,670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17055
payment standard 110
3
$2,354
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17055
payment standard 90
3
$1,926
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17055
safmr
3
$2,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17055
payment standard 110
4
$2,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17055
payment standard 90
4
$1,989
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17055
safmr
4
$2,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.