Reads as: riskier than 6.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
WV median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.24
3.14
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.42
0.37
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.15
2.97
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.27
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
175.9
3.24
0.42
0.75
2.06
3.15
0.0%
2025Q3
92
179.3
3.04
0.39
0.71
1.93
2.92
0.0%
2025Q2
91
177.9
3.02
0.43
0.78
1.81
2.93
0.0%
2025Q1
90
170.4
3.24
0.50
0.80
1.95
3.21
0.0%
2024Q4
92
173.4
3.41
0.48
0.89
2.04
3.33
0.0%
2024Q3
92
177.6
3.48
0.52
0.84
2.13
3.34
0.0%
2024Q2
91
177.3
3.29
0.60
0.81
1.88
3.13
0.0%
2024Q1
91
173.7
3.31
0.63
0.81
1.87
3.07
0.0%
2023Q4
92
178.1
3.24
0.59
0.68
1.98
3.07
0.0%
2023Q3
92
177.5
3.24
0.59
0.58
2.07
2.97
0.0%
2023Q2
91
180.0
3.03
0.54
0.58
1.91
2.78
0.0%
2023Q1
90
179.2
2.99
0.52
0.64
1.83
2.77
0.0%
2022Q4
92
177.1
3.14
0.57
0.65
1.92
2.96
0.0%
2022Q3
92
175.8
3.25
0.52
0.62
2.11
3.20
0.0%
2022Q2
91
175.6
3.52
0.53
0.66
2.33
3.23
0.0%
2022Q1
90
169.5
3.44
0.57
0.66
2.20
3.25
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
32
D × 20E × 12
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-08-22
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-22
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-22
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
E
2025-09-30
2025-08-22
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-22
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-22
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-22
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2025-09-30
2025-08-22
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-22
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2025-09-30
2025-08-22
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2025-09-30
2025-08-22
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-22
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-09-30
2025-08-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-09-30
2023-06-28
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2023-09-08
2023-06-28
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2023-09-08
2023-06-28
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2023-09-08
2023-06-28
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
E
2023-09-08
2023-06-28
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-09-08
2023-06-28
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-09-08
2023-06-28
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
E
2023-09-08
2023-06-28
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2023-09-08
2023-06-28
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-09-08
2023-06-28
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2023-09-08
2022-03-30
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2022-05-03
2022-03-30
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2022-05-03
2022-03-30
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2022-05-03
2022-03-30
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2022-05-03
2022-03-30
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2022-05-03
2022-03-30
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
E
2022-05-03
2022-03-30
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2022-05-03
2022-03-30
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2022-05-03
2022-03-30
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2022-05-03
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
20
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BANDI, LAWRENCE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2007-06-24
current
pecos_ownership
BRANSFIELD, MICHAEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2005-03-09
current
pecos_ownership
CINCINNATI, ANTHONY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2007-03-26
current
pecos_ownership
GATES, ELIZABETH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2001-03-28
current
pecos_ownership
KEOGLER, ANNA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2007-03-26
current
pecos_ownership
KIRSCH, DONALD
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2012-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
MURPHY, MORGAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
QUIRK, KEVIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2006-03-08
current
pecos_ownership
YEAGER, MARY BETH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1996-03-27
current
pecos_ownership
YEAGER, WILLIAMS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2009-06-24
current
pecos_ownership
MORGAN MURPHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
25%
2017-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANNA KEOGLER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2007-03-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY CINCINNATI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2007-03-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD KIRSCH
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2012-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH GATES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2001-03-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN QUIRK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2006-03-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAWRENCE BANDI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2007-06-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY BETH YEAGER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1996-03-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL BRANSFIELD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2005-03-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS YEAGER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2009-06-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 54069
acs median gross
0
$579
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 54069
fmr
0
$683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 54069
acs median gross
1
$624
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 54069
fmr
1
$816
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 54069
acs median gross
2
$889
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 54069
fmr
2
$991
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 54069
acs median gross
3
$967
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 54069
fmr
3
$1,277
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 54069
acs median gross
4
$1,388
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 54069
fmr
4
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 54069
acs median gross
$821
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 54069
acs recent mover gross
$897
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 26003
acs median gross
0
$579
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 26003
acs median gross
1
$616
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 26003
acs median gross
2
$886
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 26003
acs median gross
3
$988
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 26003
acs median gross
4
$1,517
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 26003
acs median gross
$818
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 26003
acs recent mover gross
$876
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 26003
payment standard 110
0
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 26003
payment standard 90
0
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 26003
safmr
0
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 26003
payment standard 110
1
$968
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 26003
payment standard 90
1
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 26003
safmr
1
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 26003
payment standard 110
2
$1,177
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 26003
payment standard 90
2
$963
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 26003
safmr
2
$1,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 26003
payment standard 110
3
$1,518
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 26003
payment standard 90
3
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 26003
safmr
3
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 26003
payment standard 110
4
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 26003
payment standard 90
4
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 26003
safmr
4
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.