Composite
75.8 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 84.2 | 81.2 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 25.26 | in index |
| financial risk | 48.9 | 44.9 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 14.67 | in index |
| staffing risk | 49.5 | 49.5 | 0.25 | 0.2500 | 12.38 | in index |
| chow risk | 41.8 | 40.1 | 0.15 | 0.1500 | 6.27 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 55.1 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 44.9 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.5 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 81.2 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 49.5 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 53.0 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 45.8 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 81.2 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 81.2 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 49.5 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 49.5 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Occupancy | 0.90 | -0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 19.00 | +0.29 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 19.00 | -2.09 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.90 | -0.62 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 10.68 | -0.60 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.31 | -0.17 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 3.76 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MT median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.29 | 3.25 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.75 | 0.62 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.12 | 3.12 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.36 | 3.34 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 37.6 | 3.29 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 2.44 | 3.12 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 36.9 | 3.39 | 0.60 | 0.23 | 2.56 | 3.14 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 36.8 | 3.40 | 0.66 | 0.20 | 2.54 | 3.35 | 3.9% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 33.9 | 3.71 | 0.80 | 0.20 | 2.71 | 3.51 | 4.5% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 33.3 | 3.60 | 0.74 | 0.30 | 2.56 | 3.31 | 4.3% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 35.9 | 3.40 | 0.73 | 0.17 | 2.50 | 3.09 | 4.5% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 38.6 | 3.00 | 0.65 | 0.15 | 2.20 | 2.78 | 5.5% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 34.5 | 3.39 | 0.88 | 0.12 | 2.40 | 3.28 | 8.1% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 39.0 | 3.11 | 0.89 | 0.05 | 2.17 | 2.93 | 13.7% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 37.4 | 3.20 | 0.82 | 0.08 | 2.30 | 3.03 | 15.4% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 35.1 | 3.47 | 0.89 | 0.07 | 2.51 | 3.21 | 13.2% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 36.8 | 3.56 | 0.90 | 0.06 | 2.60 | 3.27 | 24.4% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 36.8 | 3.55 | 0.91 | 0.07 | 2.56 | 3.28 | 31.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 35.8 | 3.56 | 0.94 | 0.09 | 2.54 | 3.36 | 30.7% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 31.8 | 3.56 | 0.95 | 0.17 | 2.44 | 3.36 | 25.6% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 31.1 | 3.57 | 0.96 | 0.19 | 2.41 | 3.38 | 18.7% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | Fine | $43,450 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2026-03-15 |
| 2026-01-29 | Health | F0605 | Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function. | D | 2026-03-15 |
| 2026-01-29 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2026-03-15 |
| 2026-01-29 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2026-03-15 |
| 2026-01-29 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2026-03-15 |
| 2026-01-29 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | G | 2026-03-15 |
| 2026-01-29 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | E | 2026-03-15 |
| 2026-01-29 | Health | F0744 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia. | D | 2026-03-15 |
| 2026-01-29 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2026-03-15 |
| 2026-01-29 | Health | F0790 | Provide routine and 24-hour emergency dental care for each resident. | D | 2026-03-15 |
| 2026-01-29 | Health | F0825 | Provide or get specialized rehabilitative services as required for a resident. | D | 2026-03-15 |
| 2026-01-29 | Health | F0838 | Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies. | D | 2026-02-20 |
| 2026-01-29 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2026-03-15 |
| 2025-08-07 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | E | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-08-07 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-08-07 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | E | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-08-07 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2025-09-11 |
| 2025-08-07 | Health · complaint | F0745 | Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life. | D | 2025-08-28 |
| 2025-08-07 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2025-09-04 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | E | 2024-12-24 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2024-12-30 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-01-10 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2025-01-10 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-01-10 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0687 | Provide appropriate foot care. | D | 2025-01-10 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2024-12-24 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2025-01-06 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2024-12-24 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health · complaint | F0835 | Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently. | E | 2024-12-24 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-12-24 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2024-12-24 |
| 2023-12-06 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-12-06 | Health · complaint | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | E | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-06 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | E | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-06 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-12-06 | Health · complaint | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | E | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-12-06 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-12-06 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-12-06 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-12-06 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-12-06 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-12-06 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-12-06 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | F | 2023-12-27 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRIEDE, DANNY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2008-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KLEINJAN, ARTHUR | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| NESSLAR, HEATHER | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2014-07-29 | current | pecos_ownership |
| OVERCAST, DENNY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2009-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ROBERTSON, CARLEY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2013-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SHACKELFORD, REBECCA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2019-12-02 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ARTHUR KLEINJAN | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | — | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CARLEY ROBERTSON | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2013-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DANNY FRIEDE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2008-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DENNY OVERCAST | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2009-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| HEATHER NESSLAR | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2014-07-29 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| REBECCA SHACKELFORD | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2019-12-02 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-01 | NORTHERN MONTANA CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 135 | NORTHERN MONTANA CARE CENTER INC |
| 2023-10-01 | RIVER RIDGE REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC | — | — | — | 129 | RIVER RIDGE REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | ASPEN MEADOWS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 90 | ASPEN MEADOWS SNF OPERATIONS, LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | LIVINGSTON HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 115 | LIVINGSTON SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | POLSON HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 70 | POLSON SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | MISSOULA HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 53 | MISSOULA SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | LAUREL HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 79 | LAUREL SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | HOT SPRINGS HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 40 | HOT SPRINGS SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-07-01 | KALISPELL REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC | — | — | — | 140 | KALISPELL REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2023-07-01 | NORTHERN PINES REHABILITATION AND NURSING | — | — | — | 41 | NORTHERN PINES REHABILITATION AND NURSING |
| 2023-07-01 | BILLINGS REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC | — | — | — | 100 | BILLINGS REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2023-07-01 | VALLE VISTA REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC | — | — | — | 101 | VALLE VISTA REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 30005 | acs median gross | 0 | $809 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 30005 | fmr | 0 | $887 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 30005 | acs median gross | 1 | $330 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 30005 | fmr | 1 | $902 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 30005 | acs median gross | 2 | $658 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 30005 | fmr | 2 | $1,184 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 30005 | acs median gross | 3 | $720 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 30005 | fmr | 3 | $1,420 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 30005 | acs median gross | 4 | $528 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 30005 | fmr | 4 | $1,914 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 30005 | acs median gross | $660 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 59523 | acs median gross | 1 | $328 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 59523 | acs median gross | 2 | $810 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 59523 | acs median gross | $739 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 59523 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $957 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59523 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $783 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59523 | safmr | 0 | $870 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59523 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,001 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59523 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $819 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59523 | safmr | 1 | $910 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59523 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,276 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59523 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,044 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59523 | safmr | 2 | $1,160 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59523 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,661 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59523 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,359 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59523 | safmr | 3 | $1,510 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59523 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,068 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59523 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,692 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59523 | safmr | 4 | $1,880 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |