Composite
70.7 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 70.6 | 65.7 | 0.30 | 0.2222 | 15.69 | in index |
| billing conduct | 62.1 | 44.3 | 0.30 | 0.2222 | 13.80 | in index |
| state reg risk | 46.4 | 10.5 | 0.30 | 0.2222 | 10.31 | in index |
| financial risk | 42.3 | 40.9 | 0.30 | 0.2222 | 9.40 | in index |
| chow risk | 63.5 | 50.0 | 0.15 | 0.1111 | 7.06 | in index |
| ownership opacity | 40.0 | 53.5 | excluded |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 44.3 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 55.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 61.1 | C | v0.1-txhhsc | default · in composite | Texas licence reissue timing as an ownership-transfer proxy. |
| chow risk | 30.9 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 40.9 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| ownership opacity | 53.1 | C | v0.1-txhhsc | default · in composite | Texas HHSC directory ownership structure: chain size, absentee owner, management company, entity form, owner closure history. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 7.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 65.7 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| state reg risk | 10.5 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 48.5 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 28.5 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 42.8 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 46.2 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 65.5 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 65.5 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.50 | +0.34 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.76 | -0.18 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.12 | +0.08 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 3.50 | -0.83 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 10.00 | -0.43 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.94 | +0.11 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.11 |
| 2025Q3 HPRD | This facility | TX median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.94 | 2.67 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.40 | 0.24 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.89 | 2.56 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.96 | 2.72 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 67.5 | 2.94 | 0.40 | 0.71 | 1.84 | 2.89 | 11.8% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 66.6 | 2.70 | 0.15 | 0.73 | 1.81 | 2.59 | 8.9% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 63.8 | 2.50 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 1.77 | 2.44 | 2.1% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 64.5 | 2.46 | 0.12 | 0.66 | 1.68 | 2.30 | 2.7% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 59.7 | 2.82 | 0.05 | 0.99 | 1.78 | 2.75 | 24.3% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 61.9 | 2.90 | 0.14 | 0.90 | 1.86 | 2.67 | 17.1% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 58.5 | 2.86 | 0.31 | 0.84 | 1.72 | 2.65 | 9.5% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 59.4 | 2.98 | 0.29 | 0.93 | 1.77 | 2.77 | 25.6% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 60.2 | 2.99 | 0.32 | 0.85 | 1.81 | 2.88 | 27.5% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 55.5 | 2.67 | 0.31 | 0.80 | 1.56 | 2.74 | 19.3% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 60.8 | 2.49 | 0.42 | 0.85 | 1.22 | 2.26 | 19.6% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 58.4 | 2.45 | 0.33 | 0.75 | 1.38 | 2.41 | 30.2% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 60.3 | 2.61 | 0.26 | 0.92 | 1.42 | 2.46 | 11.3% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 69.0 | 2.31 | 0.34 | 0.81 | 1.16 | 2.00 | 0.9% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 65.8 | 2.39 | 0.41 | 0.70 | 1.27 | 2.17 | 3.5% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-12 | Fine | $8,190 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | — |
| 2026-03-19 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2026-05-08 |
| 2026-03-19 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2026-05-08 |
| 2026-03-19 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | E | 2026-05-08 |
| 2026-03-19 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2026-05-08 |
| 2026-03-19 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2026-05-08 |
| 2026-03-19 | Health | F0851 | Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data. | F | 2026-05-08 |
| 2026-03-19 | Health | F0943 | Give their staff education on dementia care, and what abuse, neglect, and exploitation are; and how to report abuse, neglect, and exploitation. | B | 2026-05-08 |
| 2026-03-19 | Health | F0944 | Conduct mandatory training, for all staff, on the facility’s Quality Assurance and Performance Improvement Program. | B | 2026-05-08 |
| 2026-03-19 | Health | F0946 | Provide training in compliance and ethics. | B | 2026-05-08 |
| 2025-06-06 | Health · complaint | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2025-06-30 |
| 2025-06-06 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2025-06-30 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2025-01-17 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2025-01-17 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-01-17 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-01-17 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2025-01-17 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-01-17 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0770 | Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents. | E | 2025-01-17 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-01-17 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0813 | Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors. | E | 2025-01-17 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-01-17 |
| 2024-11-21 | Health · complaint | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | D | 2024-11-22 |
| 2024-06-25 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-06-28 |
| 2024-06-25 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-06-28 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2023-12-01 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-12-01 |
| 2023-10-12 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2023-10-13 |
| 2023-10-12 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2023-10-13 |
| 2023-10-12 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2023-10-13 |
| 2023-10-12 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | G | 2023-10-13 |
| 2023-10-12 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2023-10-13 |
| 2023-10-12 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2023-10-13 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2017-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BURNAM, SOON | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2015-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT | — | — | 2026-04-01 | current | tx_hhsc_directory |
| ENSIGN SERVICES INC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2015-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FORREST HILL HEALTHCARE LLC | — | — | 2026-04-01 | current | tx_hhsc_directory |
| FORREST HILL HEALTHCARE, INC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2017-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FORREST HILL HEALTHCARE, INC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-08-13 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KEETCH, CHAD | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2011-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MCGREW, PAMELA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2015-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MCKNIGHT, MAXEY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2016-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RIO MESA HEALTH HOLDINGS LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2015-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RIO MESA HOLDING LLC | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | — | 2024-07-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| RIO MESA HOLDING LLC | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | — | 2023-07-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| STANDARD BEARER HEALTHCARE OP, LP | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2015-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TAYLOR, STEPHEN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2025-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| THE ENSIGN GROUP INC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2015-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PAMELA MCGREW | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 100% | 2015-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CHAD KEETCH | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2011-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MAXEY MCKNIGHT | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2016-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RIO MESA HOLDING LLC | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | — | 2020-07-01 | ended 2021-06-30 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| RIO MESA HOLDING LLC | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | — | 2021-07-01 | ended 2022-06-30 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| RIO MESA HOLDING LLC | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | — | 2022-07-01 | ended 2023-06-30 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| SOON BURNAM | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2015-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| STEPHEN TAYLOR | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2025-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | ST. ANTHONY'S CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-10-01 | Avir at New Braunfels | — | — | — | 154 | 821 US HIGHWAY 81 W OPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | Avir at Texarkana | — | — | — | 110 | GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD |
| 2025-09-01 | PARKS HEALTH CENTER | — | — | — | 90 | WEST COKE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-09-01 | WINDMILL VILLAGE REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY |
| 2025-08-31 | Las Ventanas De Socorro | — | — | — | 126 | SOCORRO HEALTH CARE LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Mineola | — | — | — | 115 | HOPKINS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Orem | — | — | — | 120 | 3730 W OREM DR OPCO LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Courtyard | — | — | — | 120 | 7499 STANWICK DR OPCO LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HILLSIDE MEDICAL LODGE | — | — | — | 128 | CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Pasadena | — | — | — | 131 | 4300 VISTA RD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Highland Meadows | — | — | — | 120 | NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 48441 | acs median gross | 0 | $838 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48441 | fmr | 0 | $1,010 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48441 | acs median gross | 1 | $894 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48441 | fmr | 1 | $1,020 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48441 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,136 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48441 | fmr | 2 | $1,276 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48441 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,485 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48441 | fmr | 3 | $1,653 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48441 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,659 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48441 | fmr | 4 | $1,987 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48441 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,346 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48441 | acs median gross | $1,159 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 48441 | acs recent mover gross | $1,185 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 79606 | acs median gross | 0 | $938 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 79606 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,023 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 79606 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,200 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 79606 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,792 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 79606 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,386 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 79606 | acs median gross | $1,194 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 79606 | acs recent mover gross | $1,271 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 79606 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,188 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79606 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $972 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79606 | safmr | 0 | $1,080 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79606 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,199 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79606 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $981 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79606 | safmr | 1 | $1,090 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79606 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,496 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79606 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,224 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79606 | safmr | 2 | $1,360 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79606 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,936 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79606 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,584 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79606 | safmr | 3 | $1,760 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79606 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,332 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79606 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,908 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79606 | safmr | 4 | $2,120 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |