Reads as: riskier than 31.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
NATIONAL HEALTH INVESTORS INC
31 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.41
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.50
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.21
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.49
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
105.6
3.41
0.50
0.66
2.25
3.21
1.3%
2025Q3
92
104.0
3.42
0.51
0.65
2.27
3.25
2.1%
2025Q2
91
109.1
3.32
0.48
0.67
2.17
3.20
3.3%
2025Q1
90
109.7
3.25
0.47
0.64
2.15
3.12
4.4%
2024Q4
92
98.0
3.19
0.50
0.61
2.08
3.11
5.5%
2024Q3
92
106.5
3.21
0.55
0.56
2.10
3.06
3.6%
2024Q2
91
102.6
3.43
0.54
0.61
2.28
3.30
2.9%
2024Q1
91
103.5
3.38
0.53
0.62
2.23
3.26
4.5%
2023Q4
92
103.1
3.42
0.48
0.65
2.29
3.45
1.9%
2023Q3
92
104.1
3.38
0.59
0.54
2.25
3.32
5.0%
2023Q2
91
104.2
2.77
0.44
0.41
1.92
2.40
0.6%
2023Q1
90
101.7
3.15
0.52
0.58
2.06
3.05
15.4%
2022Q4
92
99.0
3.23
0.48
0.56
2.19
3.04
8.2%
2022Q3
92
97.7
3.43
0.41
0.70
2.31
3.18
5.4%
2022Q1
90
91.5
3.61
0.56
0.71
2.34
3.55
34.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
14
D × 10E × 4
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-02-02
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-02-28
2024-03-28
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2024-04-27
2024-03-28
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-04-27
2024-03-28
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-04-27
2024-03-28
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2024-04-27
2024-03-28
Health
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
D
2024-04-27
2024-03-28
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-04-27
2022-01-14
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2022-02-14
2022-01-14
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-02-14
2022-01-14
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2022-02-14
2022-01-14
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2022-02-14
2022-01-14
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2022-02-14
2022-01-14
Health
F0909
Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame.
D
2022-02-14
2020-10-15
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2020-11-13
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
21
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
HEALTH SERVICES MANAGEMENT, INC.
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2000-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAXTER, KEVIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1990-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
FISHER, SCOTT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1990-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
FISHER, SCOTT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-04-02
current
pecos_ownership
GANT, AMY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-08-17
current
pecos_ownership
HASHMI, HASEEB
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON, BRIAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1990-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTH INVESTORS, INC.
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
1990-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
NHI-REIT OF FLORIDA, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1990-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHATZ, JIM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1990-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHATZ, JIM
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-04-06
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE, JOSHUA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1990-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRIAN JACKSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
1990-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JIM SHATZ
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2021-04-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA WHITE
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
1990-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN BAXTER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
1990-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT FISHER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2012-04-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMY GANT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-08-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HASEEB HASHMI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JIM SHATZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1990-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT FISHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1990-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$840,467
—
$400,149
$2,566
—
7
—
2023-09-30
$799,785
—
$415,898
$10,616
—
9
—
2022-09-30
$738,752
$1,672
$381,804
$28,522
—
9
—
2021-09-30
$641,963
—
$360,742
—
—
8
—
2020-09-30
$709,008
—
—
$18,521
$349
14
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12101
acs median gross
0
$1,298
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12101
fmr
0
$1,593
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12101
acs median gross
1
$1,182
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12101
fmr
1
$1,696
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12101
acs median gross
2
$1,371
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12101
fmr
2
$1,977
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12101
acs median gross
3
$1,768
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12101
fmr
3
$2,527
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12101
acs median gross
4
$2,544
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12101
fmr
4
$3,077
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12101
acs median gross
5
$2,709
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12101
acs median gross
$1,505
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12101
acs recent mover gross
$1,919
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33525
acs median gross
0
$781
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33525
acs median gross
1
$873
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33525
acs median gross
2
$1,102
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33525
acs median gross
3
$1,373
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33525
acs median gross
4
$1,125
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33525
acs median gross
$1,099
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33525
acs recent mover gross
$1,438
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 33525
payment standard 110
0
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33525
payment standard 90
0
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33525
safmr
0
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33525
payment standard 110
1
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33525
payment standard 90
1
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33525
safmr
1
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33525
payment standard 110
2
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33525
payment standard 90
2
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33525
safmr
2
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33525
payment standard 110
3
$1,925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33525
payment standard 90
3
$1,575
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33525
safmr
3
$1,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33525
payment standard 110
4
$2,343
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33525
payment standard 90
4
$1,917
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33525
safmr
4
$2,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.