Composite
5.1 / 100 percentile
Screener / 315530
A
FLORHAM PARK REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER
snfNJ
190 PARK AVENUE, FLORHAM PARK, NJ 07932 · CCN 315530 · chain NFR 2020 IRRV TR
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
53
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 5.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model3Components9CHOW radar1Distress radar1Staffing6Penalties0Deficiencies2Licensure0Ownership37Related party1Transactions0Comps12Market rent33
Composite explanation
3| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 83.6 | 39.8 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 17.91 | in index |
| staffing risk | 14.8 | 14.9 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 5.29 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 0.64 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Component scores and registry models
9| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 39.8 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 3.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 1.0 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 14.9 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 1.0 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 1.0 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 14.9 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 14.9 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
3.0%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
77.0
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.96 | -0.76 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Chain size (log) | 4.38 | +0.53 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.10 | -0.21 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.0%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
10.1
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 4.38 | -1.35 | |
| Occupancy | 0.96 | -0.88 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.10 | -0.37 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.64 | -0.32 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
6| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | NJ median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.10 | 3.31 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.37 | 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 4.04 | 3.21 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.13 | 3.37 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 50.8 | 4.10 | 0.37 | 1.43 | 2.30 | 4.04 | 0.6% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 50.5 | 4.16 | 0.28 | 1.49 | 2.40 | 4.13 | 0.7% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 49.9 | 4.30 | 0.37 | 1.47 | 2.45 | 4.14 | 0.5% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 49.7 | 4.22 | 0.31 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 4.09 | 0.3% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 34.3 | 4.74 | 0.38 | 1.55 | 2.81 | 4.53 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 15.7 | 5.93 | 0.78 | 1.71 | 3.44 | 5.54 | 1.7% |
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
2D × 2
deficiencies by survey year
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-12 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-03-07 |
| 2024-11-27 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2025-01-08 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
37| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLORHAM PARK PROPERTY LLC | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 79% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| BACHAR, JEAN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FLAGLER, OSHER | INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-02-27 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HARMAN, DINA | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HARMAN, DINA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KAHANOW, AVIVA | INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LEVOVITZ, TZVI | INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-02-27 | current | pecos_ownership |
| M&T BANK | 5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST | — | 2023-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MARQUIS LIMITED LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MARQUIS LIMITED LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-02-26 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NFR 2020 IRRV TR | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NUTRACO LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NUTRACO LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| POSEN, MINDEE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| QUINTO NEXGEN LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| REICH, MICHELLE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-05-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RELIANT PRO REHAB LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RELIANT PRO REHAB LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-02-26 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ROKEACH, FRAIDE | INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ROKOWSKY, YITZCHOK | INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RSBRMK HOLDINGS LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SCHAFFER, YERACHMIEL | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-11-18 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SK NEXGEN TR | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TRYKO NEXGEN HOLDINGS LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| UAK 2020 IRRV TR | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| UKR NEXGEN LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| VIROJA, YOGESH | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2023-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| YK NEXGEN TR | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| YR NEXGEN TR | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| UKR NEXGEN LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 20% | 2022-04-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DINA HARMAN | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-04-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DINA HARMAN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-04-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JEAN BACHAR | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-04-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MICHELLE REICH | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2023-05-21 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MINDEE POSEN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-04-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| YERACHMIEL SCHAFFER | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-11-18 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| YOGESH VIROJA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-04-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — NJ snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-06 | RIVERSIDE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER LLC | — | — | — | 141 | RIVERSIDE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | ATLAS REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE AT WEST DEPTFOR | — | — | — | 156 | WEST DEPTFORD SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | ATLAS REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE AT WASHINGTON | — | — | — | 120 | SEWELL SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | ACCELERATE SKILLED NURSING AND REHAB PISCATAWAY | — | — | — | 124 | SKILES AVENUE AND STERLING DRIVE URBAN RENEWAL OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2024-03-01 | MEADOWBROOK RESPIRATORY AND NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 130 | MATAWAN SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2024-03-01 | ATLAS POST ACUTE AT WOODBURY COUNTRY CLUB | — | — | — | 124 | WOODBURY SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2024-02-01 | THE SUBACUTE AT AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE | — | — | — | 124 | 113 SOUTH ROUTE 73 OPCO LLC |
| 2024-02-01 | MOHAWK MEADOWS | — | — | — | 159 | BEMET LLC |
| 2024-01-08 | TOTAL REHAB MOORESTOWN | — | — | — | 124 | MOORESTOWN OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-01-01 | AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT VOORHEES | — | — | — | 120 | 1086 DUMONT CIRCLE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-01-01 | HARTWYCK AT OAK TREE | — | — | — | 120 | HACKENSACK MERIDIAN AMBULATORY CARE, INC. |
| 2023-12-27 | MOUNTAINSIDE SKILLED NURSING AND REHAB | — | — | — | 151 | MOUNTAINSIDE NURSING AND REHAB BHC OPERATIONS |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 34027 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,553 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 34027 | fmr | 0 | $1,612 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 34027 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,669 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 34027 | fmr | 1 | $1,822 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 34027 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,183 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 34027 | fmr | 2 | $2,205 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 34027 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,471 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 34027 | fmr | 3 | $2,761 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 34027 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,102 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 34027 | fmr | 4 | $3,137 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 34027 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,632 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 34027 | acs median gross | $1,904 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 34027 | acs recent mover gross | $2,253 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 07932 | acs median gross | 1 | $2,727 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 07932 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,977 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 07932 | acs median gross | 3 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 07932 | acs median gross | $3,114 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 07932 | acs recent mover gross | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 07932 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $2,662 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 07932 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $2,178 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 07932 | safmr | 0 | $2,420 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 07932 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $3,014 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 07932 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $2,466 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 07932 | safmr | 1 | $2,740 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 07932 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $3,641 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 07932 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,979 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 07932 | safmr | 2 | $3,310 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 07932 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $4,554 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 07932 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $3,726 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 07932 | safmr | 3 | $4,140 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 07932 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $5,181 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 07932 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $4,239 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 07932 | safmr | 4 | $4,710 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.