511 EAST MAIN, ANTLERS, OK 74523 · CCN 375313 · chain BGM ESTATE LLC
Composite
49.9 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
133
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 49.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
10
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
PHILIP M GREEN REVOCABLE TRUST
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
BELT MIRANDA
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
TABOR ANGELA
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
MITCHELL MARCINDA
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
PITTS JACI
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
TAYLOR SANDRA
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
MITCHELL ROBERT
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
BGM ESTATE LLC
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
MITCHELL KELLY
17 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OK median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
1.91
2.78
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.34
0.18
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.00
2.72
3.11
—
Weekday total
1.87
2.80
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
36.3
1.91
0.34
0.40
1.16
2.00
0.0%
2025Q3
92
33.3
2.20
0.38
0.39
1.44
2.22
0.0%
2025Q2
91
35.0
2.19
0.31
0.45
1.43
2.17
0.0%
2025Q1
90
31.3
2.16
0.30
0.44
1.41
2.19
0.0%
2024Q4
92
30.5
2.03
0.18
0.46
1.40
2.16
0.0%
2024Q3
92
34.5
1.80
0.22
0.34
1.24
1.86
0.0%
2024Q2
91
31.5
1.87
0.27
0.35
1.25
1.85
0.0%
2024Q1
91
31.7
1.96
0.27
0.36
1.33
2.04
0.0%
2023Q4
92
34.6
2.03
0.24
0.31
1.48
2.02
0.0%
2023Q3
92
32.4
2.13
0.25
0.33
1.55
2.28
0.0%
2023Q2
91
33.4
2.01
0.19
0.42
1.41
2.07
0.0%
2023Q1
90
33.6
2.02
0.19
0.43
1.40
2.10
0.0%
2022Q4
92
30.6
1.83
0.19
0.51
1.13
1.91
0.0%
2022Q3
92
33.9
1.57
0.17
0.47
0.93
1.72
0.0%
2022Q2
91
33.3
1.64
0.20
0.44
1.01
1.64
0.0%
2022Q1
90
33.4
1.67
0.20
0.45
1.02
1.90
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
16
D × 5E × 11
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-03-06
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2025-04-18
2025-03-06
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2025-04-18
2025-03-06
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-04-18
2023-11-14
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-01-02
2023-11-14
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
E
2024-01-02
2023-11-14
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-01-02
2023-11-14
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-01-02
2023-11-14
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2024-01-02
2023-11-14
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
E
2024-01-02
2023-11-14
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-01-02
2022-07-15
Health
F0606
Not hire anyone with a finding of abuse, neglect, exploitation, or theft.
D
2022-08-15
2022-07-15
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2022-08-15
2022-07-15
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2022-08-15
2022-07-15
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2022-08-15
2022-07-15
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2022-08-15
2022-07-15
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2022-08-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
43
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BGM ESTATE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2025-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
GILBERT GREEN FAMILY INVESTMENTS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2020-12-29
current
pecos_ownership
PHILIP MARION GREEN EXEMPT TR CU GILBERT F GREEN TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
18%
2025-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
TIFFANY SEAY EXEMPT TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2025-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, KELLY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2025-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, MARCINDA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2025-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, ROBERT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2025-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
TABOR, ANGELA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2025-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
PHILIP M. GREEN REVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2025-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
SEAY, TIFFANY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2025-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
ADVANCED WOUND THERAPY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
BELT, MIRANDA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-12-09
current
pecos_ownership
BEN, MELTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-08-13
current
pecos_ownership
DICKINSON, ESTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-07-24
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GILBERT GREEN FAMILY INVESTMENTS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
GREEN, PHILIP
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-14
current
pecos_ownership
HARJO, MISTY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-24
current
pecos_ownership
MOBILE WOUND CARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NS GROUP CONSULTING DIVISION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
PHARMCAREOK OF DURANT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PITTS, JACI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-12-09
current
pecos_ownership
RAY, SHANNON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-03
current
pecos_ownership
RAY, SHANNON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-25
current
pecos_ownership
ROWLAND, TEDDY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1995-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHELL, CANDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-17
current
pecos_ownership
STEIN ANCILLARY SERVICES, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
TAYLOR, SANDRA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-12-27
current
pecos_ownership
ANGELA TABOR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2025-12-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLY MITCHELL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2025-12-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARCINDA MITCHELL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2025-12-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT MITCHELL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2025-12-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIFFANY SEAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2025-12-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CANDY SHELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ESTER DICKINSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-07-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACI PITTS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-12-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELTON BEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-08-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MIRANDA BELT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-12-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MISTY HARJO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SANDRA TAYLOR
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-12-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHANNON RAY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHANNON RAY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TEDDY ROWLAND
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1995-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$333,248
—
—
—
$14,774
0
—
2023-12-31
$320,331
—
—
—
$19,466
0
—
2022-12-31
$296,442
—
—
—
$19,243
0
—
2021-12-31
$273,764
—
—
—
$17,200
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 40127
acs median gross
0
$368
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40127
fmr
0
$646
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40127
acs median gross
1
$381
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40127
fmr
1
$750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40127
acs median gross
2
$616
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40127
fmr
2
$937
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40127
acs median gross
3
$823
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40127
fmr
3
$1,303
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40127
acs median gross
4
$844
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40127
fmr
4
$1,475
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40127
acs median gross
$667
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40127
acs recent mover gross
$716
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74523
acs median gross
0
$370
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74523
acs median gross
1
$436
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74523
acs median gross
2
$642
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74523
acs median gross
3
$825
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74523
acs median gross
$688
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74523
acs recent mover gross
$726
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 74523
payment standard 110
0
$715
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74523
payment standard 90
0
$585
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74523
safmr
0
$650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74523
payment standard 110
1
$825
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74523
payment standard 90
1
$675
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74523
safmr
1
$750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74523
payment standard 110
2
$1,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74523
payment standard 90
2
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74523
safmr
2
$940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74523
payment standard 110
3
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74523
payment standard 90
3
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74523
safmr
3
$1,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74523
payment standard 110
4
$1,617
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74523
payment standard 90
4
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74523
safmr
4
$1,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.