178-198 OGDEN AVE, JERSEY CITY, NJ 07307 · CCN 315310
Composite
83.6 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
180
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 83.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
SHIFTSTER LLC
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
SHIFTSTER LLC
18 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.09
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.40
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.95
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.14
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
138.2
3.09
0.40
0.57
2.11
2.95
17.3%
2025Q3
92
133.2
2.52
0.48
0.37
1.67
2.33
11.3%
2025Q2
91
123.1
3.27
0.46
0.39
2.42
2.66
0.0%
2025Q1
90
126.7
3.80
0.38
0.67
2.74
3.32
16.5%
2024Q4
92
126.4
3.67
0.38
0.67
2.63
3.34
16.4%
2024Q3
92
126.2
3.69
0.54
0.63
2.52
3.13
17.9%
2024Q2
91
128.6
3.67
0.36
0.66
2.65
3.25
16.9%
2024Q1
91
130.4
3.54
0.35
0.67
2.53
3.11
22.4%
2023Q4
92
133.1
3.55
0.43
0.56
2.56
3.19
23.2%
2023Q3
92
129.2
3.55
0.46
0.57
2.52
2.98
19.1%
2023Q2
91
131.5
3.32
0.42
0.53
2.37
2.73
18.5%
2023Q1
90
136.8
3.16
0.45
0.44
2.27
2.71
15.0%
2022Q4
92
133.0
3.03
0.43
0.31
2.28
2.51
0.3%
2022Q3
92
135.1
3.04
0.53
0.25
2.25
2.61
0.0%
2022Q2
91
129.6
3.27
0.53
0.40
2.35
2.86
0.0%
2022Q1
90
128.2
3.18
0.54
0.44
2.20
2.79
0.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2026-02-16
2026-01-15
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2026-02-16
2026-01-15
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
E
2026-02-16
2026-01-15
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2026-02-16
2026-01-15
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2026-02-16
2026-01-15
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
D
2026-02-16
2026-01-15
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2026-02-16
2026-01-15
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2026-02-16
2026-01-15
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
D
2026-02-16
2026-01-15
Health · complaint
F0836
Ensure the facility is licensed under applicable State and local law and operates and provides services in compliance with all applicable Federal, State, and local laws, regulations, and codes, and with accepted professional standards.
D
2026-02-16
2026-01-15
Health
F0838
Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies.
F
2026-02-16
2026-01-15
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2026-02-04
2026-01-15
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2026-02-04
2026-01-15
Health
F0944
Conduct mandatory training, for all staff, on the facility’s Quality Assurance and Performance Improvement Program.
E
2026-02-04
2025-11-05
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2025-11-24
2024-09-19
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-11-08
2024-09-19
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-11-08
2024-09-19
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2024-11-08
2024-09-19
Health
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
D
2024-11-08
2022-09-19
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2022-10-28
2022-09-19
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2022-10-28
2022-09-19
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2022-10-28
2022-09-19
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-10-28
2022-09-19
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2022-10-28
2022-09-19
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2022-10-28
2022-09-19
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-10-28
2022-09-19
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2022-10-28
2022-09-19
Health
F0711
Ensure the resident's doctor reviews the resident's care, writes, signs and dates progress notes and orders, at each required visit.
E
2022-10-28
2022-09-19
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2022-10-28
2022-09-19
Health
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2022-10-28
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
13
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
MENDEL, ERIC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
RM HOLDINGS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
40%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
RM HOLDINGS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
40%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CELECKI, PAT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
EMM HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
PATEL, JAYESHKUMAR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
SHIFTSTER LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
ERIC MENDEL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HARBORVIEW HOLDING
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-29
hcris_a_8_1
HARBORVIEW HOLDING
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
RM HOLDINGS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
40%
2021-12-30
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JAYESHKUMAR PATEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAT CELECKI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$6,705,170
$6,702,668
—
—
—
1
propco
2023-12-31
$6,537,510
$6,537,510
—
—
—
1
propco
2022-12-31
$5,268,561
$5,268,561
—
—
—
1
propco
2021-12-29
$2,073,491
$801,079
—
$1,100,473
$34,085
3
propco
2020-12-31
$2,973,365
$1,770,470
—
$1,033,524
$33,583
3
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34017
acs median gross
0
$1,716
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34017
fmr
0
$2,407
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34017
acs median gross
1
$1,766
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34017
fmr
1
$2,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34017
acs median gross
2
$1,883
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34017
fmr
2
$2,763
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34017
acs median gross
3
$2,130
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34017
fmr
3
$3,367
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34017
acs median gross
4
$2,466
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34017
fmr
4
$3,955
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34017
acs median gross
5
$2,460
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34017
acs median gross
$1,894
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34017
acs recent mover gross
$2,643
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07307
acs median gross
0
$1,313
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07307
acs median gross
1
$1,441
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07307
acs median gross
2
$1,860
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07307
acs median gross
3
$2,417
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07307
acs median gross
4
$3,231
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07307
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07307
acs median gross
$1,780
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07307
acs recent mover gross
$2,086
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 07307
payment standard 110
0
$2,607
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07307
payment standard 90
0
$2,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07307
safmr
0
$2,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07307
payment standard 110
1
$2,662
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07307
payment standard 90
1
$2,178
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07307
safmr
1
$2,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07307
payment standard 110
2
$2,992
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07307
payment standard 90
2
$2,448
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07307
safmr
2
$2,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07307
payment standard 110
3
$3,641
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07307
payment standard 90
3
$2,979
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07307
safmr
3
$3,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07307
payment standard 110
4
$4,279
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07307
payment standard 90
4
$3,501
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07307
safmr
4
$3,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.