Composite
59.9 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 76.5 | 72.9 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 22.95 | in index |
| staffing risk | 71.9 | 71.9 | 0.25 | 0.2500 | 17.98 | in index |
| financial risk | 26.1 | 31.3 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 7.83 | in index |
| chow risk | 22.0 | 21.3 | 0.15 | 0.1500 | 3.30 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 17.6 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 31.3 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 3.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 72.9 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 71.9 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 81.6 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 61.6 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 37.0 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 37.3 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 72.7 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 72.7 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 71.9 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 71.9 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Occupancy | 0.86 | -0.48 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| High-severity deficiencies, 12m | 3.00 | +0.14 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 10.44 | -0.59 | |
| Occupancy | 0.86 | -0.48 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 6.00 | +0.32 | |
| High-severity deficiencies, 12m | 3.00 | -0.20 | |
| Penalties, last 12 months | 2.00 | -0.17 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | OK median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.96 | 2.78 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.62 | 2.72 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.08 | 2.80 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 39.7 | 2.96 | 0.09 | 0.80 | 2.07 | 2.62 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 40.6 | 3.11 | 0.10 | 0.79 | 2.23 | 2.84 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 39.3 | 3.21 | 0.10 | 0.86 | 2.25 | 3.02 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 39.2 | 2.97 | 0.10 | 0.81 | 2.06 | 2.88 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 38.0 | 3.07 | 0.10 | 0.88 | 2.08 | 2.94 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 36.1 | 3.24 | 0.13 | 0.91 | 2.20 | 3.04 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 39.7 | 3.10 | 0.22 | 0.75 | 2.13 | 2.93 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 40.6 | 3.04 | 0.15 | 0.78 | 2.11 | 2.93 | 0.1% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 43.8 | 2.92 | 0.21 | 0.72 | 1.99 | 2.88 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 44.7 | 2.70 | 0.15 | 0.80 | 1.76 | 2.78 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 43.2 | 2.84 | 0.27 | 0.71 | 1.86 | 2.92 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 40.1 | 2.94 | 0.18 | 0.90 | 1.87 | 2.95 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 35.9 | 3.29 | 0.20 | 0.99 | 2.09 | 3.10 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 35.7 | 3.27 | 0.17 | 1.03 | 2.07 | 3.05 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 36.8 | 2.99 | 0.10 | 0.99 | 1.90 | 2.89 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 37.0 | 2.90 | 0.09 | 0.96 | 1.85 | 2.83 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Fine | $17,215 | CMS provider data |
| 2025-11-06 | Fine | $16,910 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2026-01-28 |
| 2025-11-06 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | J | 2025-12-19 |
| 2025-11-06 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2025-12-19 |
| 2025-11-06 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2025-12-19 |
| 2025-11-06 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2025-12-19 |
| 2025-11-06 | Health · complaint | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | D | 2025-12-19 |
| 2024-10-24 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-11-22 |
| 2024-10-24 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | D | 2024-11-22 |
| 2024-10-24 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2024-11-22 |
| 2024-10-24 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | E | 2024-11-22 |
| 2024-10-24 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2024-11-22 |
| 2024-10-24 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-11-22 |
| 2024-10-24 | Health | F0909 | Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame. | E | 2024-11-22 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0570 | Assure the security of all personal funds of residents deposited with the facility. | D | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | E | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | E | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0637 | Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition | D | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0744 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia. | E | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | E | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | E | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | E | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0849 | Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services. | D | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-30 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | E | 2022-11-14 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUMPHREYS, DOUGLAS | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2008-02-20 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BRANNON, LINDA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2018-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BRANNON, LINDA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-10 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ELMWOOD MANOR NURSING HOME LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2008-02-20 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DOUGLAS HUMPHREYS | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2008-02-20 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LINDA BRANNON | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-10 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LINDA BRANNON | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2018-12-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT TULSA, LLC | — | — | — | 104 | IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT TULSA, LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | THE COMMONS | — | — | — | 138 | COMMONS OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | BEADLES NEW BEGINNINGS | — | — | — | 80 | BEADLES OPERATIONS, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | STIGLER NURSING & REHAB | — | — | — | 80 | HASKELL NURSING & REHAB LLC |
| 2024-07-01 | NOWATA NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 65 | NOWATA LTC LLC |
| 2024-05-14 | EASTGATE VILLAGE CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 110 | EASTGATE HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2024-05-14 | Broadway Care & Rehab Center | — | — | — | 105 | BROADWAY HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2024-05-14 | FORT GIBSON CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | FORT GIBSON HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | HERITAGE MANOR | — | — | — | 55 | HERITAGE MANOR MANAGEMENT LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | HERITAGE PARK | — | — | — | 55 | HERITAGE PARK MANAGEMENT, LLC |
| 2024-01-09 | COWETA CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 100 | COWETA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC |
| 2024-01-09 | MITCHELL CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 100 | MITCHELL HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT, LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 40133 | acs median gross | 0 | $492 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40133 | fmr | 0 | $673 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40133 | acs median gross | 1 | $561 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40133 | fmr | 1 | $734 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40133 | acs median gross | 2 | $708 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40133 | fmr | 2 | $937 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40133 | acs median gross | 3 | $918 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40133 | fmr | 3 | $1,256 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40133 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,029 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40133 | fmr | 4 | $1,368 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40133 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,425 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40133 | acs median gross | $752 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 40133 | acs recent mover gross | $925 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 74884 | acs median gross | 1 | $567 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 74884 | acs median gross | 2 | $780 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 74884 | acs median gross | 3 | $967 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 74884 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,115 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 74884 | acs median gross | $846 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 74884 | acs recent mover gross | $728 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 74884 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $825 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74884 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $675 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74884 | safmr | 0 | $750 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74884 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $902 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74884 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $738 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74884 | safmr | 1 | $820 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74884 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,144 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74884 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $936 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74884 | safmr | 2 | $1,040 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74884 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,540 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74884 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,260 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74884 | safmr | 3 | $1,400 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74884 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,672 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74884 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,368 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74884 | safmr | 4 | $1,520 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |