58 NEITZ ROAD, NORTHUMBERLAND, PA 17857 · CCN 395390
Composite
46.1 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
121
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 46.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.60
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.34
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.42
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.67
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
112.9
3.60
0.34
1.15
2.10
3.42
10.8%
2025Q3
92
112.1
3.72
0.32
1.26
2.14
3.51
5.5%
2025Q2
91
112.5
3.60
0.34
1.05
2.21
3.50
5.2%
2025Q1
90
113.0
3.60
0.34
1.04
2.22
3.54
4.1%
2024Q4
92
114.0
3.44
0.32
1.01
2.12
3.44
7.0%
2024Q3
92
111.7
3.61
0.38
1.08
2.15
3.48
7.9%
2024Q2
91
109.2
3.50
0.36
1.06
2.07
3.30
12.2%
2024Q1
91
108.6
3.52
0.39
1.08
2.06
3.34
11.2%
2023Q4
92
107.6
3.57
0.40
1.09
2.08
3.43
14.8%
2023Q3
92
97.7
5.62
0.38
1.52
3.72
5.09
17.3%
2023Q2
91
93.0
3.58
0.40
1.04
2.13
3.26
22.7%
2023Q1
90
88.7
3.34
0.28
1.15
1.91
3.18
27.9%
2022Q4
92
85.8
3.12
0.26
1.09
1.77
3.07
27.5%
2022Q3
92
83.3
2.96
0.31
1.18
1.47
2.88
30.7%
2022Q2
91
82.0
2.72
0.32
1.15
1.25
2.57
26.8%
2022Q1
90
78.2
2.69
0.32
1.08
1.29
2.77
20.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2026-01-06
2025-11-14
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-01-06
2025-11-14
Health
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
E
2026-01-06
2025-11-14
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2026-01-06
2025-11-14
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2026-01-06
2025-11-14
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2026-01-06
2025-11-14
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2026-01-06
2025-02-11
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-03-13
2024-12-06
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2025-01-30
2024-12-06
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2025-01-30
2024-12-06
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-01-30
2024-12-06
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-01-30
2024-12-06
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2025-01-30
2024-12-06
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-01-30
2024-12-06
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
E
2025-01-30
2024-12-06
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
D
2025-01-30
2024-12-06
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-01-30
2024-12-06
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
E
2025-01-30
2024-12-06
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-01-30
2024-12-06
Health
F0848
Provide a neutral and fair arbitration process and agree to arbitrator and venue.
E
2025-01-30
2024-12-06
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-01-30
2024-12-06
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2025-01-30
2024-12-06
Health
F0887
Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.
D
2025-01-30
2024-01-25
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-03-04
2024-01-25
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-03-04
2024-01-05
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2024-03-04
2024-01-05
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2024-03-04
2024-01-05
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
B
2024-03-04
2024-01-05
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-03-04
2024-01-05
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-03-04
2024-01-05
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-03-04
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
23
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FREDERICK KESSLER JR ESTATE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2018-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
RIDGWAY HOLDING, INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2003-12-04
current
pecos_ownership
GESUMARIA, BETH
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-08-30
current
pecos_ownership
KESSLER, AMANDA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
KESSLER, AMANDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2004-07-16
current
pecos_ownership
MISENER, ANDREW
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
NOTTINGHAM HLTH CARE SVC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
NOTTINGHAM HLTH CARE SVC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
SCOTT, ROBERT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-07
current
pecos_ownership
SCOTT, ROBERT
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2008-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHEBEST, STUART
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-07
current
pecos_ownership
SHEBEST, STUART
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
AMANDA KESSLER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2004-07-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMANDA KESSLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW MISENER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BETH GESUMARIA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-08-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NOTTINGHAM HLTH CARE SVC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
NOTTINGHAM HLTH CARE SVC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
NOTTINGHAM HLTH CARE SVC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ROBERT SCOTT
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2008-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT SCOTT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STUART SHEBEST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STUART SHEBEST
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$68,578
$68,578
—
—
—
1
propco
2023-12-31
$69,860
$69,860
—
—
—
1
propco
2022-12-31
$1,793,966
$1,166,301
—
—
—
5
propco
2021-12-31
$1,727,719
$1,176,922
—
—
—
5
propco
2020-12-31
$2,220,812
$1,704,932
—
—
—
5
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42097
acs median gross
0
$626
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42097
fmr
0
$671
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42097
acs median gross
1
$642
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42097
fmr
1
$843
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42097
acs median gross
2
$787
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42097
fmr
2
$973
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42097
acs median gross
3
$951
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42097
fmr
3
$1,241
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42097
acs median gross
4
$1,041
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42097
fmr
4
$1,288
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42097
acs median gross
5
$925
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42097
acs median gross
$806
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42097
acs recent mover gross
$936
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17857
acs median gross
1
$810
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17857
acs median gross
2
$1,047
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17857
acs median gross
3
$1,033
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17857
acs median gross
$963
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 17857
payment standard 110
0
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17857
payment standard 90
0
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17857
safmr
0
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17857
payment standard 110
1
$1,056
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17857
payment standard 90
1
$864
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17857
safmr
1
$960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17857
payment standard 110
2
$1,221
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17857
payment standard 90
2
$999
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17857
safmr
2
$1,110
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17857
payment standard 110
3
$1,562
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17857
payment standard 90
3
$1,278
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17857
safmr
3
$1,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17857
payment standard 110
4
$1,617
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17857
payment standard 90
4
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17857
safmr
4
$1,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.