Reads as: riskier than 61.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MILLER ROBERT
31 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
LIBERTY HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
30 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
CALCUTT JOSEPH
34 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
OLIVER ANNA
25 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MCNEILL JOHN
31 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MCNEILL RONALD
29 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
33 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.00
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.28
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.88
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.04
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
126.0
3.00
0.28
0.65
2.07
2.88
19.5%
2025Q3
92
121.6
3.16
0.20
0.75
2.21
2.95
29.9%
2025Q2
91
118.5
3.00
0.30
0.77
1.93
2.83
45.7%
2025Q1
90
112.6
2.89
0.29
0.70
1.90
2.87
44.8%
2024Q4
92
105.7
2.85
0.25
0.67
1.93
2.83
36.5%
2024Q3
92
105.4
2.73
0.23
0.69
1.80
2.62
24.4%
2024Q2
91
99.9
2.88
0.23
0.78
1.87
2.78
19.7%
2024Q1
91
103.9
2.66
0.24
0.75
1.66
2.50
16.5%
2023Q4
92
95.4
2.75
0.19
0.79
1.77
2.64
14.4%
2023Q3
92
89.3
2.64
0.14
0.77
1.73
2.41
37.9%
2023Q2
91
85.8
2.66
0.15
0.79
1.72
2.48
38.0%
2023Q1
90
87.0
2.23
0.15
0.59
1.49
2.14
29.0%
2022Q4
92
93.8
2.42
0.17
0.67
1.58
2.24
29.0%
2022Q3
92
89.6
2.53
0.14
0.65
1.73
2.38
28.3%
2022Q2
91
102.2
2.40
0.14
0.53
1.72
2.31
23.6%
2022Q1
90
99.0
2.57
0.27
0.59
1.71
2.39
26.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2026-05-22
2026-04-30
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-05-20
2025-05-08
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-05-06
2025-01-24
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-02-08
2025-01-24
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-02-08
2025-01-24
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-01-21
2024-03-27
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-04-18
2023-09-13
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
B
2023-09-29
2023-09-13
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-09-29
2023-09-13
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-09-29
2023-09-13
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2023-09-29
2023-09-13
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2023-09-29
2022-05-26
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2022-06-27
2022-05-26
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2022-06-27
2022-05-26
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2022-06-27
2022-05-26
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2022-06-27
2022-05-26
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-06-27
2022-05-26
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2022-06-27
2022-05-26
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2022-06-27
2022-05-26
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2022-06-27
2022-05-26
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
E
2022-06-27
2022-05-26
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2022-06-27
2022-05-26
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2022-06-27
2022-05-26
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2022-06-27
2022-05-26
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2022-06-27
2022-05-26
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
G
2022-06-27
2022-05-26
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2022-06-27
2022-05-26
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2022-06-27
2022-05-26
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
E
2022-06-27
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
49
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
MCNEILL, ROBERT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
26%
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
CALCUTT, JOSEPH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
CALCUTT, JOSEPH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOHN A MCNEILL JR 2014 IRREVOCABLE TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY HEALTHCARE PROPERTIES OF MOORE COUNTY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY REAL PROPERTIES II LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-05
current
pecos_ownership
LINDER, MYSTERI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-04
current
pecos_ownership
LINDER, MYSTERI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, JOHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, RONALD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, ROBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, ROBERT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
OLIVER, ANNA
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
PETERSON, GAJARAH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-04
current
pecos_ownership
PETERSON, GAJARAH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
PURVIS, JENNY
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
RONALD B AND CYNTHIA J MCNEIL 2014 IRREVOCABLE TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
SCHACHT, ERICA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-13
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, JEFFREY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, JEFFREY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY LONG TERM CARE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2020-02-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
JOHN MCNEILL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
26%
2020-02-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
JOHN MCNEILL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
26%
2025-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT MCNEILL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
26%
2025-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD MCNEILL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
26%
2020-02-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
RONALD MCNEILL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
26%
2025-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN A MCNEILL JR 2012 IRRV TR
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2020-02-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
JOHN A MCNEILL JR 2012 IRRV TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2025-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD B AND CYNTHIA J MCNEILL 2013 IRRV TR
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2020-02-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
RONALD B. AND CYNTHIA J. MCNEILL 2013 IRREVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2025-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANNA OLIVER
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERICA SCHACHT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GAJARAH PETERSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GAJARAH PETERSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY WILSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY WILSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNY PURVIS
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH CALCUTT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH CALCUTT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MYSTERI LINDER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MYSTERI LINDER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NGB ENTERPRISES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2019-10-01
ended 2020-01-31
hcris_a_8_1
ROBERT MILLER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT MILLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VAN BERGSTROM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-02-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$1,728,413
—
$527,645
$3,349
$472,913
4
—
2023-09-30
$1,554,085
—
—
—
$582,565
4
—
2022-09-30
$861,873
—
—
—
—
8
—
2021-09-30
$916,865
—
—
—
—
8
—
2020-09-30
$509,455
—
—
—
—
10
—
2020-01-31
$294,239
—
$85,118
$533
$1,069
7
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37125
acs median gross
0
$987
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37125
fmr
0
$1,157
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37125
acs median gross
1
$1,007
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37125
fmr
1
$1,239
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37125
acs median gross
2
$1,125
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37125
fmr
2
$1,358
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37125
acs median gross
3
$1,415
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37125
fmr
3
$1,889
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37125
acs median gross
4
$2,540
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37125
fmr
4
$2,278
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37125
acs median gross
5
$2,551
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37125
acs median gross
$1,254
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37125
acs recent mover gross
$2,022
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28374
acs median gross
0
$1,728
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28374
acs median gross
1
$1,399
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28374
acs median gross
2
$1,488
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28374
acs median gross
3
$1,844
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28374
acs median gross
4
$2,449
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28374
acs median gross
$1,767
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28374
acs recent mover gross
$2,134
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28374
payment standard 110
0
$1,870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 90
0
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
safmr
0
$1,700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 110
1
$2,002
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 90
1
$1,638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
safmr
1
$1,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 110
2
$2,189
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 90
2
$1,791
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
safmr
2
$1,990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 110
3
$3,047
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 90
3
$2,493
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
safmr
3
$2,770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 110
4
$3,674
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 90
4
$3,006
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
safmr
4
$3,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.