Composite
90.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 92.6 | 80.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 21.37 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 84.3 | 81.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 19.45 | in index |
| staffing risk | 98.7 | 98.7 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 18.98 | in index |
| chow risk | 61.7 | 60.8 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 7.12 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.00 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 96.5 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 80.9 | F | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 5.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 81.3 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 98.7 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 72.8 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 52.8 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 64.9 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 81.4 | F | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 81.2 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 81.2 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 98.7 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 98.7 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.95 | -0.74 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.34 | +0.44 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 1.84 | +0.24 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.95 | -0.86 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -1.37 | -0.67 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 10.53 | -0.59 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 1.84 | +0.58 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.34 | +0.29 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CT median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 1.84 | 3.46 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.37 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 1.78 | 3.25 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 1.86 | 3.51 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 57.2 | 1.84 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 1.09 | 1.78 | 34.5% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 50.2 | 2.82 | 0.38 | 0.65 | 1.79 | 2.62 | 27.1% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 47.2 | 3.44 | 0.63 | 0.82 | 1.99 | 2.94 | 14.5% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 49.2 | 3.27 | 0.54 | 0.80 | 1.93 | 2.96 | 13.1% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 38.5 | 3.21 | 0.61 | 0.67 | 1.93 | 3.15 | 6.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 30.4 | 3.67 | 0.86 | 0.56 | 2.25 | 3.36 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 28.6 | 3.69 | 1.05 | 0.54 | 2.11 | 3.44 | 19.5% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 28.4 | 3.65 | 1.04 | 0.53 | 2.08 | 3.55 | 10.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 29.1 | 3.44 | 1.01 | 0.51 | 1.92 | 3.09 | 6.1% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 29.2 | 3.48 | 0.82 | 0.64 | 2.02 | 3.28 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 29.0 | 3.34 | 0.88 | 0.55 | 1.90 | 3.23 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-08 | Fine | $37,440 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-29 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2025-09-30 |
| 2025-09-08 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2025-10-01 |
| 2025-09-08 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2025-09-09 |
| 2025-09-08 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-10-01 |
| 2025-09-08 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2025-09-09 |
| 2025-09-08 | Health · complaint | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | E | 2025-10-01 |
| 2025-09-08 | Health · complaint | F0947 | Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention. | F | 2025-10-01 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0565 | Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility. | E | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | C | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | B | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | B | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | C | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | E | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | E | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0887 | Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status. | D | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health | F0947 | Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention. | B | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-06-10 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-06-28 |
| 2023-12-07 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-01-16 |
| 2023-12-07 | Health · complaint | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | D | 2024-01-08 |
| 2023-08-03 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-09-20 |
| 2023-08-03 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2023-09-20 |
| 2022-08-23 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2022-08-31 |
| 2022-08-23 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2022-08-31 |
| 2022-08-23 | Health | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | E | 2022-08-31 |
| 2022-08-23 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2022-08-31 |
| 2022-08-23 | Health | F0694 | Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed. | E | 2022-08-31 |
| 2022-08-23 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2022-08-31 |
| 2022-08-23 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2022-08-31 |
| 2022-08-23 | Health | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | D | 2022-08-31 |
| 2022-08-23 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | B | 2022-08-31 |
| 2022-08-23 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | E | 2022-08-31 |
| 2019-10-31 | Health | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | E | 2019-11-13 |
| 2019-10-31 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2019-11-13 |
| 2019-10-31 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2019-11-13 |
| 2019-10-31 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2019-11-13 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZGORSKI, MARC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 45% | 2007-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ZGORSKI, TODD | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 45% | 2007-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ZGORSKI, JOYCE | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 10% | 2007-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ZGORSKI, TODD | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2007-06-29 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MARC ZGORSKI | CORPORATE OFFICER | 45% | 2007-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TODD ZGORSKI | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 45% | 2007-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TODD ZGORSKI | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 45% | 2007-06-29 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOYCE ZGORSKI | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 10% | 2007-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | INGRAHAM MANOR REHAB AND NURSING | — | — | — | 128 | IM OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-15 | HAVENCARE AT LITCHFIELD WOODS | — | — | — | 160 | LITCHFIELD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-15 | HAVENCARE AT VALERIE MANOR | — | — | — | 151 | VALERIE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | SHADY KNOLL CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 128 | SHADY KNOLL ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | MAEFAIR CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 134 | MAEFAIR ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | GLASTONBURY CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 105 | GLASTONBURY ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | MANSFIELD CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 98 | MANSFIELD ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | EVERGREEN CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 180 | EVERGREEN ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | MONTOWESE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 120 | MONTOWESE ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | SHARON CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 88 | SHARON ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | BEACON BROOK CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 126 | BEACON BROOK ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | STONE BRIDGE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 154 | NEWTOWN ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 09130 | acs median gross | 0 | $664 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09130 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,272 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09130 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,614 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09130 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,816 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09130 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,989 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09130 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09130 | acs median gross | $1,454 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 09130 | acs recent mover gross | $1,719 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 06414 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,320 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06414 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,080 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06414 | safmr | 0 | $1,200 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06414 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,518 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06414 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,242 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06414 | safmr | 1 | $1,380 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06414 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,925 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06414 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,575 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06414 | safmr | 2 | $1,750 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06414 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,299 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06414 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,881 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06414 | safmr | 3 | $2,090 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06414 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,607 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06414 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,133 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06414 | safmr | 4 | $2,370 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |