Reads as: riskier than 67.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
13
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
35 chains
WELLTOWER INC
135 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
33 chains
WELLTOWER OP LLC
147 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
28 chains
FREUND NOCHUM
109 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
28 chains
TRAVITSKY AARON
106 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
27 chains
WELLTOWER NNN GROUP LLC
102 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
27 chains
DAGAN AMITAI
101 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
27 chains
GOLDBERGER ABRAHAM
100 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.8 vs natl
BELLVILLE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.7 vs natl
THOMPSON JOHNNY
74 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.0 vs natl
TRAVITSKY AARON
153 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
BELLVILLE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
WELLTOWER NNN GROUP LLC
111 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
45% fined
THOMPSON JOHNNY
74 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.88
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.23
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.76
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.93
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
128.6
2.88
0.23
0.91
1.74
2.76
0.0%
2025Q3
92
121.8
3.11
0.27
0.93
1.92
2.91
0.0%
2025Q2
91
114.3
3.37
0.29
0.95
2.13
3.13
0.0%
2025Q1
90
117.0
3.47
0.32
0.97
2.17
3.17
0.0%
2024Q4
92
122.3
3.09
0.28
0.91
1.90
2.88
0.0%
2024Q3
92
124.4
3.10
0.20
0.98
1.92
3.02
0.0%
2024Q2
91
124.5
3.10
0.19
0.96
1.95
3.05
0.0%
2024Q1
91
126.2
3.03
0.24
0.88
1.91
2.96
0.0%
2023Q4
92
126.5
2.86
0.21
0.89
1.76
2.88
0.0%
2023Q3
92
129.3
2.82
0.23
0.80
1.80
2.85
0.0%
2023Q2
91
132.9
2.82
0.21
0.82
1.79
2.79
0.0%
2023Q1
90
137.1
2.89
0.17
0.88
1.84
2.90
0.0%
2022Q4
92
134.7
2.88
0.25
0.81
1.82
2.77
0.2%
2022Q3
92
127.5
3.15
0.25
1.00
1.91
3.08
0.0%
2022Q2
91
123.7
3.11
0.27
1.02
1.82
3.06
0.0%
2022Q1
90
127.9
3.15
0.23
1.09
1.83
3.04
0.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
J
2025-08-05
2025-08-05
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
J
2025-08-05
2025-07-23
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
J
—
2025-07-08
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-08-11
2025-04-10
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2025-04-15
2025-04-10
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2025-04-11
2025-04-10
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2025-04-15
2024-08-01
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-09-06
2024-08-01
Health · complaint
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
E
2024-09-06
2024-08-01
Health · complaint
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
E
2024-09-06
2024-02-18
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2024-03-18
2024-02-18
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2024-02-18
2024-02-18
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-02-19
2024-02-18
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2024-03-19
2024-02-18
Health
F0740
Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services.
J
2024-03-27
2024-02-18
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-03-19
2024-02-18
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2024-03-19
2024-02-18
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2024-03-19
2024-02-18
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
2024-03-19
2022-10-20
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2022-10-22
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
21
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BELLVILLE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
7633 BELLFORT OPCO LLC
—
—
2026-04-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
7633 BELLFORT OPCO, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
7633 BELLFORT OPCO, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-23
current
pecos_ownership
7633 BELLFORT PROPERTY OWNER, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
BELLVILLE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2026-04-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
DAGAN, AMITAI
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-23
current
pecos_ownership
FREUND, NOCHUM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOLDBERGER, ABRAHAM
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-23
current
pecos_ownership
LALANI, SULEMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORRIS, JARMESE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
THOMPSON, JOHNNY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRAVITSKY, AARON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER INC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER NNN GROUP, LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER OP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNNY THOMPSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AARON TRAVITSKY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JARMESE MORRIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NOCHUM FREUND
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SULEMAN LALANI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2023-03-31
$129,450
—
—
—
—
2
—
2022-12-31
$329,732
$1,172
—
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$264,257
—
—
$41,272
—
4
—
2020-12-31
$231,102
—
—
—
—
2
—
2020-03-12
$9,515
—
$6,243
—
—
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48201
acs median gross
0
$1,177
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
0
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
1
$1,196
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
1
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
2
$1,425
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
2
$1,573
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
3
$1,764
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
3
$2,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
4
$2,148
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
4
$2,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
5
$2,339
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
acs median gross
$1,401
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
acs recent mover gross
$1,495
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77061
acs median gross
0
$831
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77061
acs median gross
1
$879
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77061
acs median gross
2
$1,123
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77061
acs median gross
3
$1,846
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77061
acs median gross
$977
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77061
acs recent mover gross
$1,053
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 77061
payment standard 110
0
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77061
payment standard 90
0
$819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77061
safmr
0
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77061
payment standard 110
1
$1,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77061
payment standard 90
1
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77061
safmr
1
$940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77061
payment standard 110
2
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77061
payment standard 90
2
$1,008
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77061
safmr
2
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77061
payment standard 110
3
$1,661
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77061
payment standard 90
3
$1,359
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77061
safmr
3
$1,510
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77061
payment standard 110
4
$2,068
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77061
payment standard 90
4
$1,692
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77061
safmr
4
$1,880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.