Reads as: riskier than 6.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
HATTIESBURG MEDICAL PARK MANAGEMENT CORP
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MS median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.06
3.68
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.55
0.34
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.71
3.30
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.20
3.82
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
75.1
4.06
0.55
0.97
2.54
3.71
18.4%
2025Q3
92
75.3
4.22
0.54
1.02
2.66
3.90
14.6%
2025Q2
91
71.1
4.13
0.55
1.07
2.50
3.84
5.7%
2025Q1
90
70.6
4.18
0.48
1.11
2.59
3.80
3.6%
2024Q4
92
70.8
4.33
0.50
1.11
2.72
3.90
7.6%
2024Q3
92
68.7
4.37
0.66
1.06
2.65
3.90
11.8%
2024Q2
91
70.4
4.36
0.57
1.04
2.75
3.93
21.4%
2024Q1
91
74.7
3.97
0.35
1.00
2.62
3.74
20.7%
2023Q4
92
73.1
4.29
0.49
1.03
2.77
4.04
18.6%
2023Q3
92
74.6
4.06
0.44
1.05
2.57
3.78
19.9%
2023Q2
91
73.7
4.10
0.40
1.07
2.64
3.88
19.5%
2023Q1
90
72.7
4.27
0.43
1.21
2.63
4.02
35.6%
2022Q4
92
74.1
3.64
0.33
0.91
2.41
3.38
57.1%
2022Q3
92
74.0
3.76
0.39
0.98
2.39
3.54
50.6%
2022Q2
91
70.3
3.92
0.44
1.00
2.48
3.66
48.8%
2022Q1
90
66.9
3.84
0.40
1.06
2.39
3.56
39.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
11
D × 11
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-08-28
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-09-22
2025-08-28
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2025-09-22
2024-10-29
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-11-19
2024-10-29
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-11-19
2024-10-29
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-11-19
2024-03-28
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2024-04-19
2024-03-28
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-04-19
2022-02-18
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2022-04-08
2022-02-18
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2022-04-08
2022-02-18
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2022-04-08
2022-02-18
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-04-08
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
38
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BEDFORD HEALTH PROPERTIES, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2001-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEVON, NICOLE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2001-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCELROY, MICHAEL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2001-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL E. MCELROY FAMILY TRUST FBO MICHAEL E. MCELROY, JR.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2025-04-02
current
pecos_ownership
BEAN, LISA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
BEVON, CHARLES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2005-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEVON, JACK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2001-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
BLACKLEDGE, RICHARD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
CASADA, DANIEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
CASADA, DANIEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-11
current
pecos_ownership
CONVA REST MONROE HALL INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CONVA REST MONROE HALL INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
GILBERT, HEATHER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-08
current
pecos_ownership
HATTIESBURG MEDICAL PARK MANAGEMENT CORP.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-23
current
pecos_ownership
HATTIESBURG MEDICAL PARK MANAGEMENT CORP.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2001-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
JANET F MCELROY FAMILY TRUST FBO NICOLE MCELROY BEVON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-27
current
pecos_ownership
JANET F. MCELROY FAMILY TRUST FBO MICHAEL E. MCELROY, JR.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-27
current
pecos_ownership
MCELROY, SONYA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2001-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL E MCELROY FAMILY TRUST FBO NICOLE MCELROY BEVON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-02
current
pecos_ownership
ROBBINS, TAMBARA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
RYALS, JENNIFER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-05-04
current
pecos_ownership
WORRELL, STEPHEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-10-13
current
pecos_ownership
CONVA REST MONROE HALL INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
STEPHEN WORRELL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2020-10-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MCELROY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
25%
2001-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICOLE BEVON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2001-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACK BEVON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2001-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SONYA MCELROY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2001-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES BEVON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2005-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CONVA REST MONROE HALL INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CONVA REST MONROE HALL INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
DANIEL CASADA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL CASADA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HEATHER GILBERT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER RYALS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-05-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA BEAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-04-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD BLACKLEDGE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-05-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TAMBARA ROBBINS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,253,205
$210,813
—
$523,086
$44,515
8
propco
2023-12-31
$1,355,187
$221,406
$306,577
$158,841
$527,763
8
propco
2022-12-31
$1,607,750
$221,406
$292,919
$396,193
$527,761
8
propco
2021-12-31
$1,436,619
$239,243
$296,367
$393,734
$307,523
8
propco
2020-12-31
$1,253,105
$183,877
—
$354,900
$232,997
5
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 28035
acs median gross
0
$561
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28035
fmr
0
$766
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28035
acs median gross
1
$785
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28035
fmr
1
$888
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28035
acs median gross
2
$993
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28035
fmr
2
$1,047
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28035
acs median gross
3
$1,083
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28035
fmr
3
$1,348
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28035
acs median gross
4
$1,313
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28035
fmr
4
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28035
acs median gross
5
$1,077
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28035
acs median gross
$972
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28035
acs recent mover gross
$1,111
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39401
acs median gross
0
$564
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39401
acs median gross
1
$798
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39401
acs median gross
2
$985
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39401
acs median gross
3
$1,053
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39401
acs median gross
4
$1,310
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39401
acs median gross
5
$875
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39401
acs median gross
$948
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39401
acs recent mover gross
$1,081
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 39401
payment standard 110
0
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39401
payment standard 90
0
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39401
safmr
0
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39401
payment standard 110
1
$946
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39401
payment standard 90
1
$774
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39401
safmr
1
$860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39401
payment standard 110
2
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39401
payment standard 90
2
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39401
safmr
2
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39401
payment standard 110
3
$1,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39401
payment standard 90
3
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39401
safmr
3
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39401
payment standard 110
4
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39401
payment standard 90
4
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39401
safmr
4
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.