Composite
26.7 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 87.6 | 87.6 | 0.25 | 0.2500 | 21.90 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 40.4 | 29.4 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 12.12 | in index |
| chow risk | 21.7 | 22.6 | 0.15 | 0.1500 | 3.26 | in index |
| financial risk | 6.8 | 15.9 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 2.04 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 24.8 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 20.5 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 15.9 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 29.4 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 87.6 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 74.9 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 54.9 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 30.7 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 21.9 | A | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 29.2 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 29.2 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 87.6 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 87.6 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.96 | -0.77 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 2.00 | -0.12 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 2.00 | +1.06 | |
| Occupancy | 0.96 | -0.91 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.62 | +0.25 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.30 | -0.14 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | OH median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.62 | 3.24 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.66 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.50 | 3.11 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.67 | 3.29 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 95.5 | 2.62 | 0.66 | 0.36 | 1.60 | 2.50 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 95.0 | 2.65 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 1.60 | 2.36 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 95.6 | 2.58 | 0.48 | 0.58 | 1.51 | 2.21 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 95.7 | 2.39 | 0.41 | 0.59 | 1.39 | 2.25 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 94.0 | 2.37 | 0.41 | 0.57 | 1.40 | 2.25 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 92.0 | 2.42 | 0.41 | 0.58 | 1.44 | 2.25 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 89.7 | 2.40 | 0.49 | 0.43 | 1.49 | 2.23 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 84.6 | 2.39 | 0.57 | 0.34 | 1.48 | 2.42 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 88.7 | 1.96 | 0.55 | 0.22 | 1.18 | 1.90 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 88.4 | 1.80 | 0.52 | 0.20 | 1.08 | 1.68 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 88.9 | 2.12 | 0.59 | 0.28 | 1.25 | 1.90 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 88.7 | 2.06 | 0.47 | 0.38 | 1.21 | 1.97 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 86.3 | 1.91 | 0.37 | 0.42 | 1.11 | 1.84 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 84.4 | 2.05 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 1.07 | 1.95 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 81.3 | 2.21 | 0.45 | 0.63 | 1.13 | 2.03 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 78.9 | 2.17 | 0.33 | 0.70 | 1.14 | 2.12 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2026-05-08 |
| 2025-10-21 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2025-11-21 |
| 2025-07-07 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-07-25 |
| 2025-07-07 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-07-25 |
| 2025-07-07 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-07-25 |
| 2025-07-07 | Health · complaint | F0802 | Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service. | F | 2025-07-25 |
| 2025-07-07 | Health · complaint | F0810 | Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance. | F | 2025-07-25 |
| 2025-07-07 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-07-25 |
| 2025-07-07 | Health · complaint | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | F | 2025-07-25 |
| 2024-09-03 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-03 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0569 | Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death. | E | 2024-07-24 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2024-07-24 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2024-07-24 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-07-24 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-07-24 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-07-24 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-07-24 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health · complaint | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2024-07-24 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0740 | Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services. | E | 2024-07-24 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2024-07-24 |
| 2021-10-15 | Health | F0567 | Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs. | E | 2021-11-18 |
| 2021-10-15 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2021-11-18 |
| 2021-10-15 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | D | 2021-11-18 |
| 2021-10-15 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2021-11-18 |
| 2021-10-15 | Health | F0687 | Provide appropriate foot care. | D | 2021-11-18 |
| 2021-10-15 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2021-11-18 |
| 2021-10-15 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2021-11-18 |
| 2021-10-15 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2021-11-18 |
| 2021-10-15 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2021-11-18 |
| 2021-10-15 | Health | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | D | 2021-11-18 |
| 2021-10-15 | Health | F0810 | Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance. | E | 2021-11-18 |
| 2021-10-15 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2021-11-18 |
| 2021-04-15 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | D | 2021-05-14 |
| 2021-04-15 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2021-05-14 |
| 2021-04-15 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2021-05-14 |
| 2021-04-15 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2021-05-14 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRATTON, GREG | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2018-11-15 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GRIFFITHS, JAMES | INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-11-11 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GRIFFITHS, JAMES | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2013-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JAG HEALTHCARE INC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2013-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JUSCHKA, DIRK | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2018-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JAMES GRIFFITHS | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2013-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DIRK JUSCHKA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2018-09-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| GREG BRATTON | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2018-11-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | SAPPHIRE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 113 | SAPPHIRE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF POINT PLACE | — | — | — | 82 | POINT PLACE OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF NEW LEXINGTON | — | — | — | 82 | NEW LEXINGTON OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Atrium Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | ATRIUM OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Inniswood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | FHS INNISWOOD, INC. |
| 2024-12-31 | COMMUNITY SKILLED HEALTHCARE | — | — | — | 110 | CS OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF PERRYSBURG | — | — | — | 75 | PERRYSBURG OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | GRAFTON OAKS NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | GO OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF KENT | — | — | — | 74 | KENT OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | Chardon Woods | — | — | — | 161 | CHARDON WOODS OF JOURNEY LLC |
| 2024-12-16 | The Pavilion at Canal Fulton for Nursing and Rehab | — | — | — | 60 | PAVILION AT CANAL FULTON LLC |
| 2024-12-02 | BENNINGTON GLEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 79 | FHS BENNINGTON INC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 39049 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,112 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39049 | fmr | 0 | $1,111 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39049 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,119 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39049 | fmr | 1 | $1,194 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39049 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,339 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39049 | fmr | 2 | $1,430 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39049 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,469 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39049 | fmr | 3 | $1,715 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39049 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,711 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39049 | fmr | 4 | $1,927 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39049 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,617 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39049 | acs median gross | $1,302 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 39049 | acs recent mover gross | $1,444 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 43223 | acs median gross | 0 | $569 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 43223 | acs median gross | 1 | $767 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 43223 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,131 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 43223 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,394 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 43223 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,464 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 43223 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,544 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 43223 | acs median gross | $1,129 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 43223 | acs recent mover gross | $1,300 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 43223 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,078 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43223 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $882 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43223 | safmr | 0 | $980 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43223 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,155 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43223 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $945 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43223 | safmr | 1 | $1,050 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43223 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,386 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43223 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,134 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43223 | safmr | 2 | $1,260 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43223 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,661 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43223 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,359 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43223 | safmr | 3 | $1,510 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43223 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,870 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43223 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,530 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43223 | safmr | 4 | $1,700 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |