Reads as: riskier than 84.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
25
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+43.6 vs natl
LINZ TRUST
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+40.9 vs natl
RED STONE ADVISORS LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+40.9 vs natl
PIMENTO PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+39.5 vs natl
DAVIDOVICH NIV
20 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+33.9 vs natl
STERNSHEIN JENNIFER
49 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+33.8 vs natl
HAGINS ELIZABETH
52 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.1 vs natl
GARETZ DAVID
66 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.0 vs natl
MINDLE ADAM
56 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+30.5 vs natl
KAPLAN ESTHER
55 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+29.0 vs natl
FIRST SWEETZER HOLDINGS LLC
26 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.4 vs natl
ESDOV INVESTMENTS LLC
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
29 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.0 vs natl
CHUMLEY RICHARD
30 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
GARETZ DAVID
61 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
KAPLAN ESTHER
54 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
MINDLE ADAM
52 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
HAGINS ELIZABETH
48 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
STERNSHEIN JENNIFER
44 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
DAVIDOVICH NIV
19 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
ESDOV INVESTMENTS LLC
17 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
LINZ TRUST
9 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
PIMENTO PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
67% fined
PIMENTO PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
67% fined
RED STONE ADVISORS LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
45% fined
DAVIDOVICH NIV
20 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.53
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.08
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.58
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.51
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
46.9
2.53
0.08
1.02
1.44
2.58
0.1%
2025Q3
92
49.3
2.44
0.00
1.01
1.43
2.39
0.0%
2025Q2
91
50.9
2.31
0.12
0.84
1.34
2.25
0.0%
2025Q1
90
49.4
2.35
0.10
0.86
1.38
2.27
0.0%
2024Q4
92
50.2
2.68
0.16
1.01
1.51
2.72
0.0%
2024Q3
92
50.2
2.49
0.26
0.79
1.44
2.50
0.0%
2024Q2
91
53.0
2.42
0.16
0.83
1.43
2.47
0.0%
2024Q1
91
50.7
2.07
0.13
0.61
1.33
2.07
0.0%
2023Q4
92
52.2
2.40
0.21
0.80
1.39
2.58
0.0%
2023Q3
92
54.9
2.33
0.24
0.72
1.37
2.58
3.6%
2023Q2
91
47.8
2.32
0.29
0.85
1.19
2.65
0.0%
2023Q1
90
44.7
2.42
0.29
0.97
1.16
2.56
0.0%
2022Q4
92
42.5
2.40
0.29
0.96
1.16
2.37
0.0%
2022Q3
92
40.5
2.54
0.24
1.11
1.19
2.60
0.0%
2022Q2
91
43.3
2.63
0.13
1.29
1.22
2.55
0.0%
2022Q1
90
44.0
2.37
0.07
1.18
1.13
2.35
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2025-08-22
2025-08-21
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
E
2025-08-22
2025-08-21
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
E
2025-08-22
2025-08-21
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2025-08-22
2025-08-21
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
E
2025-08-22
2025-08-07
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
E
2025-08-08
2025-08-07
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2025-08-08
2025-08-07
Health
F0809
Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times.
E
2025-08-08
2025-08-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-08-08
2025-08-07
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-08-08
2025-08-07
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
2025-08-11
2025-01-08
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-01-31
2024-06-27
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-05-10
2024-02-29
Health · complaint
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2024-03-01
2024-01-06
Health · complaint
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
D
2024-01-26
2023-05-03
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2023-06-18
2023-05-03
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-06-18
2023-05-03
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2023-06-18
2023-05-03
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-06-18
2023-05-03
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2023-06-18
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
24
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
825 W KEARNEY STREET TX LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHUMLEY, RICHARD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIDOVICH, NIV
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-02
current
pecos_ownership
ESDOV INVESTMENTS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
FIRST SWEETZER HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
GARETZ, DAVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
HAGINS, ELIZABETH
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-02
current
pecos_ownership
HOWARD, ASIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KAPLAN, ESTHER
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-02
current
pecos_ownership
LINZ TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MESQUITE VILLAGE WELLNESS & REHABILITATION LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MESQUITE VILLAGE WELLNESS & REHABILITATION LLC
—
—
2024-01-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
MILLER, LINUS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MINDLE, ADAM
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-02
current
pecos_ownership
PIMENTO PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
RED STONE ADVISORS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROJO RE TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
STERNSHEIN, JENNIFER
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-02
current
pecos_ownership
STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2024-01-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
RICHARD CHUMLEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ASIA HOWARD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-08-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID GARETZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINUS MILLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48113
acs median gross
0
$1,385
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
0
$1,582
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
1
$1,400
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
1
$1,648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
2
$1,638
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
2
$1,931
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
3
$1,823
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
3
$2,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
4
$2,241
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
4
$3,091
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
5
$2,432
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
acs median gross
$1,565
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
acs recent mover gross
$1,745
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75149
acs median gross
0
$1,061
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75149
acs median gross
1
$1,172
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75149
acs median gross
2
$1,347
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75149
acs median gross
3
$1,824
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75149
acs median gross
4
$2,557
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75149
acs median gross
$1,553
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75149
acs recent mover gross
$1,974
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 75149
payment standard 110
0
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75149
payment standard 90
0
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75149
safmr
0
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75149
payment standard 110
1
$1,661
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75149
payment standard 90
1
$1,359
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75149
safmr
1
$1,510
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75149
payment standard 110
2
$1,947
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75149
payment standard 90
2
$1,593
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75149
safmr
2
$1,770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75149
payment standard 110
3
$2,453
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75149
payment standard 90
3
$2,007
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75149
safmr
3
$2,230
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75149
payment standard 110
4
$3,113
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75149
payment standard 90
4
$2,547
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75149
safmr
4
$2,830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.