Reads as: riskier than 83.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.0 vs natl
CHAD M UNVERFERTH 12 14 11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
25 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.2 vs natl
DAVID V UNVERFERTH 12 14 11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
24 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.2 vs natl
JEFFREY L UNVERFERTH 12 14 11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
24 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.2 vs natl
JOSEPH L UNVERFERTH 12 15 11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
24 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.2 vs natl
LAWRENCE G UNVERFERTH 12 13 11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
24 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.2 vs natl
R STEVEN UNVERFERTH 12 14 11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
24 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.08
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.25
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.94
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.13
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
115.7
3.08
0.25
0.77
2.06
2.94
0.0%
2025Q3
92
112.7
3.19
0.24
0.83
2.13
2.92
0.0%
2025Q2
91
112.3
3.08
0.21
0.82
2.04
2.79
0.0%
2025Q1
90
113.7
3.05
0.17
0.80
2.08
2.93
0.0%
2024Q4
92
114.5
3.14
0.21
0.83
2.10
2.98
0.0%
2024Q3
92
114.4
3.08
0.23
0.86
2.00
3.04
0.0%
2024Q2
91
113.1
3.14
0.25
0.85
2.04
3.01
0.0%
2024Q1
91
109.8
2.85
0.26
0.79
1.80
2.87
0.0%
2023Q4
92
104.3
2.83
0.17
0.74
1.91
2.77
0.0%
2023Q3
92
85.9
2.78
0.19
0.75
1.84
2.67
0.0%
2023Q2
91
74.0
2.83
0.30
0.62
1.90
2.67
10.7%
2023Q1
90
79.4
2.67
0.42
0.65
1.60
2.39
20.3%
2022Q4
92
81.7
2.47
0.34
0.60
1.53
2.18
11.1%
2022Q3
92
82.3
2.54
0.25
0.61
1.68
2.19
6.9%
2022Q2
91
80.6
2.97
0.18
0.69
2.09
2.59
12.3%
2022Q1
90
84.9
2.96
0.21
0.73
2.02
2.69
10.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
25
C × 1D × 19E × 5
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-22
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2026-03-06
2026-01-22
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2026-03-06
2026-01-22
Health
F0605
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
D
2026-03-06
2026-01-22
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2026-03-06
2026-01-22
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2026-03-06
2026-01-22
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2026-03-06
2026-01-22
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2026-03-06
2026-01-22
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2026-03-06
2026-01-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-03-06
2025-01-31
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2025-03-28
2025-01-31
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-03-28
2025-01-31
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-03-28
2025-01-31
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2025-03-28
2025-01-31
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-03-28
2024-02-15
Health
F0575
Post a list of names, addresses, and telephone numbers of all pertinent State agencies and advocacy groups and a statement that the resident may file a complaint with the State Survey Agency.
C
2024-04-15
2024-02-15
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
E
2024-04-15
2024-02-15
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2024-04-15
2024-02-15
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
E
2024-04-15
2024-02-15
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-04-15
2024-02-15
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-04-15
2024-02-15
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-04-15
2024-02-15
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-04-15
2024-02-15
Health
F0661
Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge.
D
2024-04-15
2024-02-15
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2024-04-15
2023-10-05
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2023-11-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
35
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
HCF OPERATIONS, INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2009-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRADLEY, JENNIFER
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-04-24
current
pecos_ownership
CHAD M. UNVERFERTH 12-14-11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID V. UNVERFERTH 12-14-11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
HCF MANAGEMENT, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
HCF, INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2009-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY L. UNVERFERTH 12-14-11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
JOANN C. UNVERFERTH 12-29-04 REVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
JOANN C. UNVERFERTH 12-31-12 IRREVOCABLE GRANTOR TRUST FBO KENDRA M. U
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
JOANN C. UNVERFERTH 12-31-12 IRREVOCABLE GRANTOR TRUST FBO KERRI A. RO
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
JOANN C. UNVERFERTH 12-31-12 IRREVOCABLE GRANTOR TRUST FBO KEVAN R. UN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
JOANN C. UNVERFERTH 12-31-12 IRREVOCABLE GRANTOR TRUST FBO KRISTEN S.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
JOANN C. UNVERFERTH 12-31-12 IRREVOCABLE GRANTOR TRUST FBO KYLE J. UNV
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH L. UNVERFERTH 12-15-11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
KLAY, CELESTE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2011-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
KLAY, CELESTE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAWRENCE G. UNVERFERTH 12-13-11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
R. STEVEN UNVERFERTH 12-14-11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
ROMES, KERRI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
ROMES, KERRI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROMES, KERRI
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2013-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHAW, ANTHONY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-06-26
current
pecos_ownership
SHAW, ANTHONY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
1994-08-29
current
pecos_ownership
UNVERFERTH, CHAD
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2003-03-17
current
pecos_ownership
UNVERFERTH, CHAD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2004-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY SHAW
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-06-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY SHAW
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
1994-08-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CELESTE KLAY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2011-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CELESTE KLAY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAD UNVERFERTH
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2003-03-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAD UNVERFERTH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2004-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER BRADLEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-04-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KERRI ROMES
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2013-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KERRI ROMES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KERRI ROMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,472,057
$3,431
$562,730
$414,647
$5,621
4
—
2023-12-31
$436,400
—
$436,400
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$420,936
—
$420,936
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$410,664
—
$410,664
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$455,871
—
$455,871
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42049
acs median gross
0
$621
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42049
fmr
0
$836
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42049
acs median gross
1
$709
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42049
fmr
1
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42049
acs median gross
2
$949
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42049
fmr
2
$1,212
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42049
acs median gross
3
$1,044
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42049
fmr
3
$1,499
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42049
acs median gross
4
$1,265
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42049
fmr
4
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42049
acs median gross
5
$1,151
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42049
acs median gross
$904
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42049
acs recent mover gross
$1,024
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16412
acs median gross
1
$883
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16412
acs median gross
2
$874
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16412
acs median gross
3
$1,000
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16412
acs median gross
$882
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16412
acs recent mover gross
$1,157
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 16412
payment standard 110
0
$924
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16412
payment standard 90
0
$756
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16412
safmr
0
$840
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16412
payment standard 110
1
$1,045
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16412
payment standard 90
1
$855
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16412
safmr
1
$950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16412
payment standard 110
2
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16412
payment standard 90
2
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16412
safmr
2
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16412
payment standard 110
3
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16412
payment standard 90
3
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16412
safmr
3
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16412
payment standard 110
4
$1,859
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16412
payment standard 90
4
$1,521
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16412
safmr
4
$1,690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.