Composite
53.8 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 89.6 | 89.6 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 17.23 | in index |
| financial risk | 68.4 | 58.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 15.78 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 42.8 | 31.6 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 9.88 | in index |
| chow risk | 59.4 | 38.2 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 6.85 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.00 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 44.1 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 32.3 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 58.0 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 8.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 31.6 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 89.6 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 74.3 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 54.3 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 54.9 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 61.4 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 31.5 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 31.5 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 89.6 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 89.6 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 15.00 | +0.19 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.56 | +0.14 | |
| Occupancy | 0.66 | +0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 15.00 | -1.35 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Occupancy | 0.66 | +0.37 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.56 | -0.29 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.55 | +0.28 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | OH median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.55 | 3.24 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.61 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.53 | 3.11 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.56 | 3.29 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 41.0 | 2.55 | 0.61 | 0.28 | 1.66 | 2.53 | 0.1% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 41.6 | 2.32 | 0.33 | 0.51 | 1.48 | 2.36 | 20.6% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 43.0 | 2.48 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 1.55 | 2.37 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 47.1 | 2.54 | 0.55 | 0.48 | 1.51 | 2.51 | 13.8% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 48.6 | 2.62 | 0.55 | 0.44 | 1.63 | 2.50 | 11.9% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 47.3 | 2.61 | 0.48 | 0.54 | 1.59 | 2.40 | 13.3% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 47.7 | 2.76 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 1.77 | 2.49 | 10.1% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 43.4 | 2.84 | 0.57 | 0.58 | 1.69 | 2.58 | 3.7% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 44.0 | 2.75 | 0.45 | 0.70 | 1.59 | 2.52 | 7.2% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 45.7 | 2.69 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 1.60 | 2.56 | 8.5% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 43.5 | 2.64 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 1.34 | 2.56 | 5.1% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 41.0 | 2.71 | 0.56 | 0.68 | 1.47 | 2.77 | 2.7% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 45.5 | 2.73 | 0.64 | 0.52 | 1.58 | 2.64 | 13.7% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 44.6 | 2.53 | 0.56 | 0.53 | 1.44 | 2.52 | 7.4% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 43.8 | 2.62 | 0.72 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.48 | 21.4% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 46.8 | 2.64 | 0.66 | 0.43 | 1.54 | 2.36 | 25.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2026-05-05 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2026-03-19 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health | F0569 | Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death. | E | 2026-03-19 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health | F0570 | Assure the security of all personal funds of residents deposited with the facility. | F | 2026-03-19 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2026-05-05 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2026-03-19 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2026-03-19 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2026-03-19 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | F | 2026-03-19 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2026-03-19 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health | F0825 | Provide or get specialized rehabilitative services as required for a resident. | D | 2026-03-19 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health | F0835 | Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently. | D | 2026-03-19 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2026-03-19 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | F | 2026-03-19 |
| 2025-08-04 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | — |
| 2024-07-10 | Health · complaint | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | F | 2024-08-03 |
| 2024-03-21 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-04-10 |
| 2024-03-21 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2024-04-10 |
| 2024-03-21 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | F | 2024-04-10 |
| 2024-03-21 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-04-10 |
| 2024-03-21 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-04-10 |
| 2024-03-21 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-04-10 |
| 2023-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-09-08 |
| 2022-02-25 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2022-03-29 |
| 2022-02-25 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | F | 2022-03-29 |
| 2022-02-25 | Health | F0711 | Ensure the resident's doctor reviews the resident's care, writes, signs and dates progress notes and orders, at each required visit. | D | 2022-03-29 |
| 2022-02-25 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | F | 2022-03-29 |
| 2022-02-25 | Health | F0800 | Provide each resident with a nourishing, palatable, well-balanced diet that meets his or her daily nutritional and special dietary needs. | E | 2022-03-29 |
| 2022-02-25 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | F | 2022-03-29 |
| 2022-02-25 | Health | F0802 | Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service. | F | 2022-03-29 |
| 2022-02-25 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | D | 2022-03-29 |
| 2022-02-25 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | K | 2022-03-29 |
| 2022-02-25 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2022-03-29 |
| 2022-02-25 | Health | F0835 | Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently. | F | 2022-03-29 |
| 2022-02-25 | Health | F0838 | Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies. | C | 2022-03-29 |
| 2022-02-25 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2022-03-29 |
| 2022-02-25 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2022-03-29 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HILLSTONE HEALTHCARE INC. | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2017-09-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| PAUL BERGSTEN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 60% | 2016-03-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MATTHEW DAPORE | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 40% | 2016-03-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LUCINDA O'HARA | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2021-08-03 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | SAPPHIRE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 113 | SAPPHIRE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF POINT PLACE | — | — | — | 82 | POINT PLACE OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF NEW LEXINGTON | — | — | — | 82 | NEW LEXINGTON OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Atrium Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | ATRIUM OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Inniswood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | FHS INNISWOOD, INC. |
| 2024-12-31 | COMMUNITY SKILLED HEALTHCARE | — | — | — | 110 | CS OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF PERRYSBURG | — | — | — | 75 | PERRYSBURG OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | GRAFTON OAKS NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | GO OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF KENT | — | — | — | 74 | KENT OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | Chardon Woods | — | — | — | 161 | CHARDON WOODS OF JOURNEY LLC |
| 2024-12-16 | The Pavilion at Canal Fulton for Nursing and Rehab | — | — | — | 60 | PAVILION AT CANAL FULTON LLC |
| 2024-12-02 | BENNINGTON GLEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 79 | FHS BENNINGTON INC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 39099 | acs median gross | 0 | $595 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39099 | fmr | 0 | $735 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39099 | acs median gross | 1 | $652 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39099 | fmr | 1 | $771 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39099 | acs median gross | 2 | $823 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39099 | fmr | 2 | $973 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39099 | acs median gross | 3 | $945 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39099 | fmr | 3 | $1,270 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39099 | acs median gross | 4 | $988 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39099 | fmr | 4 | $1,345 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39099 | acs median gross | 5 | $959 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39099 | acs median gross | $791 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 39099 | acs recent mover gross | $885 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 44505 | acs median gross | 0 | $623 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44505 | acs median gross | 1 | $584 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44505 | acs median gross | 2 | $639 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44505 | acs median gross | 3 | $754 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44505 | acs median gross | 4 | $797 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44505 | acs median gross | $644 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 44505 | acs recent mover gross | $934 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 44505 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $803 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44505 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $657 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44505 | safmr | 0 | $730 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44505 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $847 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44505 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $693 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44505 | safmr | 1 | $770 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44505 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,067 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44505 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $873 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44505 | safmr | 2 | $970 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44505 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,397 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44505 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,143 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44505 | safmr | 3 | $1,270 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44505 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,474 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44505 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,206 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44505 | safmr | 4 | $1,340 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |