Reads as: riskier than 87.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.44
3.15
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.58
0.46
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.37
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.47
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
35.1
2.44
0.58
0.35
1.51
2.37
8.8%
2025Q3
92
32.5
2.53
0.43
0.56
1.53
2.33
0.1%
2025Q2
91
29.3
2.43
0.50
0.52
1.41
2.45
0.0%
2025Q1
90
26.3
3.12
0.53
0.83
1.76
2.97
0.0%
2024Q4
92
26.6
3.18
0.49
0.87
1.82
3.05
0.0%
2024Q3
92
32.0
2.86
0.64
0.75
1.47
2.67
0.0%
2024Q2
91
28.1
2.81
0.65
0.61
1.56
2.70
3.1%
2024Q1
91
29.9
2.62
0.52
0.59
1.50
2.64
17.7%
2023Q4
92
28.9
2.36
0.51
0.41
1.44
2.31
0.0%
2023Q3
92
31.1
1.48
0.34
0.18
0.96
1.51
0.0%
2023Q2
91
33.7
2.53
0.48
0.59
1.45
2.35
4.4%
2023Q1
90
30.1
2.08
0.43
0.39
1.27
1.80
3.9%
2022Q4
92
25.1
3.08
0.16
0.74
2.19
2.96
14.7%
2022Q3
92
26.6
3.31
0.21
0.80
2.30
3.04
18.5%
2022Q2
91
27.9
2.71
0.15
0.62
1.94
2.44
11.6%
2022Q1
90
27.0
2.37
0.22
0.70
1.46
2.17
2.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2026-01-02
2025-12-11
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2026-01-02
2025-12-11
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2026-01-02
2025-12-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-01-02
2024-12-05
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-12-26
2023-09-06
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2023-10-10
2023-09-06
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2023-10-10
2023-09-06
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-10-10
2023-09-06
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-10-10
2023-09-06
Health
F0740
Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services.
D
2023-10-10
2023-09-06
Health · complaint
F0741
Ensure that the facility has sufficient staff members who possess the competencies and skills to meet the behavioral health needs of residents.
J
2023-10-10
2023-09-06
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
C
2023-10-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
23
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ARBORETA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTERS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2012-02-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARBORETA HEALTHCARE, INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-06-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREENSIDE HEALTHCARE PROPERTIES LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROGER TICHENOR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
9%
2024-01-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
5V+ SENIORS HEALTHCARE FUND GP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
5V+ SENIORS HEALTHCARE FUND, LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ACD CONSOLIDATED LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARBORETA HEALTHCARE CONSULTING, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-06-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BEAR CREEK STRATEGIC REAL ASSETS FUND LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BIRCHWOOD HEALTHCARE PARTNERS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN WHYMS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRUCE CASSIDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIELLE ALTMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEFRANCO INVESTMENT CO LTD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIANE PANZI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HOLDCO, IA, 10, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
IAGA SNF DAYTON LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
IAGA SNF HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
IAGA SNF PORTFOLIO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LYNN ANDERSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OPCO DAYTON IA LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
P&M HOLDING GROUP LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHELLEY CLEVELAND
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$190,669
—
$190,669
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$228,141
—
$228,141
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$307,746
—
$307,746
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$74,914
—
$74,914
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$102,161
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 19187
acs median gross
0
$491
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19187
fmr
0
$696
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19187
acs median gross
1
$593
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19187
fmr
1
$700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19187
acs median gross
2
$816
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19187
fmr
2
$919
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19187
acs median gross
3
$964
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19187
fmr
3
$1,182
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19187
acs median gross
4
$1,351
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19187
fmr
4
$1,542
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19187
acs median gross
5
$875
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19187
acs median gross
$785
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19187
acs recent mover gross
$923
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50530
acs median gross
1
$564
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50530
acs median gross
2
$517
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50530
acs median gross
$523
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 50530
payment standard 110
0
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50530
payment standard 90
0
$630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50530
safmr
0
$700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50530
payment standard 110
1
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50530
payment standard 90
1
$630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50530
safmr
1
$700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50530
payment standard 110
2
$1,012
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50530
payment standard 90
2
$828
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50530
safmr
2
$920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50530
payment standard 110
3
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50530
payment standard 90
3
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50530
safmr
3
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50530
payment standard 110
4
$1,694
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50530
payment standard 90
4
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50530
safmr
4
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.