39 QUEEN STREET, WORCESTER, MA 01610 · CCN 225305 · chain COVENANT HEALTH
Composite
24.2 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
172
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 24.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
71% fined
CASTILLO NICOLE
7 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.41
3.39
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.38
0.39
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.40
3.26
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.42
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
110.9
3.41
0.38
0.84
2.20
3.40
4.8%
2025Q3
92
115.7
3.41
0.40
0.79
2.22
3.34
11.2%
2025Q2
91
115.3
3.28
0.38
0.76
2.14
3.24
12.2%
2025Q1
90
106.7
3.40
0.41
0.80
2.19
3.38
12.5%
2024Q4
92
106.7
3.41
0.46
0.72
2.23
3.36
10.2%
2024Q3
92
105.9
3.37
0.42
0.75
2.19
3.29
12.9%
2024Q2
91
108.7
3.29
0.31
0.77
2.21
3.06
10.4%
2024Q1
91
112.5
3.17
0.32
0.72
2.13
2.93
13.5%
2023Q4
92
112.0
3.02
0.30
0.74
1.97
2.77
17.0%
2023Q3
92
113.3
3.13
0.28
0.76
2.09
2.96
21.7%
2023Q2
91
114.2
3.27
0.33
0.85
2.08
3.03
15.1%
2023Q1
90
110.9
3.31
0.30
0.96
2.06
3.24
16.4%
2022Q4
92
107.4
3.31
0.30
0.89
2.11
3.32
23.1%
2022Q3
92
112.0
2.44
0.30
0.65
1.49
2.20
13.3%
2022Q2
91
108.8
2.55
0.20
0.67
1.68
2.37
0.1%
2022Q1
90
107.6
2.67
0.26
0.73
1.68
2.58
1.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-11-25
2025-10-29
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2025-11-25
2025-06-23
Health · complaint
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
E
2025-06-20
2024-12-18
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2025-01-20
2024-12-18
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2025-01-20
2024-12-18
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-01-20
2024-12-18
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2025-01-20
2024-12-18
Health
F0742
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder.
D
2025-01-20
2024-12-18
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-01-20
2024-12-18
Health
F0772
Have an agreement with an approved laboratory to obtain services, if on-site laboratory services aren't provided.
D
2025-01-20
2024-12-18
Health
F0776
Provide timely, approved x-ray services, or have an agreement with an approved provider to obtain them.
D
2025-01-20
2024-12-18
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-01-20
2023-10-17
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-11-30
2023-10-17
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-11-30
2023-10-17
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2023-11-30
2023-10-17
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2023-11-30
2023-10-17
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2023-11-30
2023-10-17
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-11-30
2023-10-17
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2023-11-30
2023-10-17
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2023-11-30
2022-03-03
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2022-03-25
2022-03-03
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2022-03-25
2022-03-03
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2022-03-25
2022-03-03
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-03-25
2022-03-03
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2022-03-25
2022-03-03
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2022-03-25
2022-03-03
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2022-03-25
2022-03-03
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2022-03-25
2022-03-03
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2022-03-25
2022-03-03
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2022-03-25
2022-03-03
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-03-25
2022-03-03
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
E
2022-03-25
2022-03-03
Health
F0887
Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.
D
2022-03-25
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
33
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BECKER, DAVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-07-09
current
pecos_ownership
BOYLE, MELISSA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2011-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
CASTILLO, NICOLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-05-18
current
pecos_ownership
COVENANT HEALTH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1998-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
DOTY, RONALD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-11-12
current
pecos_ownership
FORNEY, STEPHEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-09-16
current
pecos_ownership
FREIJE, RICHARD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2007-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GARCIA, HOLLY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-10-21
current
pecos_ownership
GRUBBS, STEPHEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-09-24
current
pecos_ownership
LAVALLEE, EILEEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-04-26
current
pecos_ownership
LUCKE, KELLY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-19
current
pecos_ownership
MANGO, ALAINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARONEY, JAMES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCCARTHY, JENNIFER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-05-18
current
pecos_ownership
OKOLI, CHIDIMMA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
WAITE, DOUGLAS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WAITE, DOUGLAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-02-12
current
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER MCCARTHY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2019-05-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD DOTY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2020-11-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN GRUBBS
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2018-09-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICOLE CASTILLO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
75%
2018-05-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS WAITE
CORPORATE OFFICER
50%
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HOLLY GARCIA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
50%
2019-10-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN FORNEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
50%
2019-09-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALAINA MANGO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHIDIMMA OKOLI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID BECKER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-07-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS WAITE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-02-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EILEEN LAVALLEE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES MARONEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLY LUCKE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA BOYLE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2011-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD FREIJE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2007-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$808,493
—
$808,493
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$737,955
—
$737,955
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$485,147
—
$485,147
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$637,751
—
$637,751
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$556,470
—
$552,577
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 25027
acs median gross
0
$1,120
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 25027
acs median gross
1
$1,068
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 25027
acs median gross
2
$1,483
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 25027
acs median gross
3
$1,745
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 25027
acs median gross
4
$1,929
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 25027
acs median gross
5
$1,739
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 25027
acs median gross
$1,426
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 25027
acs recent mover gross
$1,868
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 01610
acs median gross
0
$1,129
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 01610
acs median gross
1
$1,067
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 01610
acs median gross
2
$1,549
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 01610
acs median gross
3
$1,675
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 01610
acs median gross
4
$2,049
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 01610
acs median gross
5
$2,128
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 01610
acs median gross
$1,523
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 01610
acs recent mover gross
$1,744
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 01610
payment standard 110
0
$1,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01610
payment standard 90
0
$1,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01610
safmr
0
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01610
payment standard 110
1
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01610
payment standard 90
1
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01610
safmr
1
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01610
payment standard 110
2
$2,167
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01610
payment standard 90
2
$1,773
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01610
safmr
2
$1,970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01610
payment standard 110
3
$2,684
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01610
payment standard 90
3
$2,196
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01610
safmr
3
$2,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01610
payment standard 110
4
$2,981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01610
payment standard 90
4
$2,439
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01610
safmr
4
$2,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.