Reads as: riskier than 32.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.0 vs natl
CHAD M UNVERFERTH 12 14 11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
25 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.2 vs natl
DAVID V UNVERFERTH 12 14 11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
24 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.2 vs natl
JEFFREY L UNVERFERTH 12 14 11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
24 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.2 vs natl
JOSEPH L UNVERFERTH 12 15 11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
24 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.2 vs natl
LAWRENCE G UNVERFERTH 12 13 11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
24 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.2 vs natl
R STEVEN UNVERFERTH 12 14 11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
24 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.00
3.24
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.47
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.91
3.11
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.03
3.29
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
46.4
3.00
0.47
0.57
1.96
2.91
0.0%
2025Q3
92
43.6
3.10
0.48
0.63
1.99
2.96
0.0%
2025Q2
91
41.2
3.44
0.69
0.56
2.19
3.30
0.0%
2025Q1
90
43.1
3.27
0.78
0.44
2.05
3.16
0.0%
2024Q4
92
44.5
3.06
0.75
0.31
2.00
2.85
0.0%
2024Q3
92
43.4
3.15
0.74
0.34
2.07
3.02
0.0%
2024Q2
91
42.0
3.38
0.93
0.29
2.16
3.28
0.0%
2024Q1
91
39.5
3.47
1.11
0.20
2.16
3.31
0.0%
2023Q4
92
41.4
3.37
1.00
0.19
2.17
3.23
0.0%
2023Q3
92
40.3
3.54
1.03
0.20
2.30
3.34
0.0%
2023Q2
91
38.5
3.53
1.13
0.18
2.22
3.27
0.0%
2023Q1
90
38.0
3.33
1.06
0.17
2.10
3.11
14.3%
2022Q4
92
38.7
3.29
1.12
0.10
2.06
3.06
20.4%
2022Q3
92
34.9
3.30
0.95
0.19
2.16
3.04
7.9%
2022Q2
91
36.0
3.20
0.55
0.45
2.20
3.01
6.5%
2022Q1
90
37.9
3.40
0.51
0.63
2.25
3.13
12.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
12
D × 11E × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2023-07-27
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-09-27
2023-07-27
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2023-09-27
2023-07-27
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-09-27
2023-07-27
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2023-09-27
2023-07-27
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-09-27
2019-02-21
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2019-03-22
2019-02-21
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2019-03-22
2019-02-21
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2019-03-22
2019-02-21
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2019-03-22
2019-02-21
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2019-03-22
2019-02-21
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2019-03-22
2019-02-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2019-03-22
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
37
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
HCF OPERATIONS, INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2004-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHAD M. UNVERFERTH 12-14-11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID V. UNVERFERTH 12-14-11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
HCF MANAGEMENT, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2004-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HCF, INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2004-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY L. UNVERFERTH 12-14-11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
JOANN C. UNVERFERTH 12-29-04 REVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
JOANN C. UNVERFERTH 12-31-12 IRREVOCABLE GRANTOR TRUST FBO KENDRA M. U
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
JOANN C. UNVERFERTH 12-31-12 IRREVOCABLE GRANTOR TRUST FBO KERRI A. RO
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
JOANN C. UNVERFERTH 12-31-12 IRREVOCABLE GRANTOR TRUST FBO KEVAN R. UN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
JOANN C. UNVERFERTH 12-31-12 IRREVOCABLE GRANTOR TRUST FBO KRISTEN S.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
JOANN C. UNVERFERTH 12-31-12 IRREVOCABLE GRANTOR TRUST FBO KYLE J. UNV
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH L. UNVERFERTH 12-15-11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
KLAY, CELESTE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KLAY, CELESTE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2011-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAWRENCE G. UNVERFERTH 12-13-11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
R. STEVEN UNVERFERTH 12-14-11 IRRV GRANTOR TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
ROMES, KERRI
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2013-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROMES, KERRI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROMES, KERRI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
SCHWINNEN, SAMANTHA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2020-03-27
current
pecos_ownership
SCHWINNEN, SAMANTHA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
SHAW, ANTHONY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
1994-08-29
current
pecos_ownership
SHAW, ANTHONY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-06-26
current
pecos_ownership
UNVERFERTH, CHAD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2004-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
UNVERFERTH, CHAD
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2003-03-17
current
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY SHAW
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-06-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY SHAW
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
1994-08-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CELESTE KLAY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2011-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CELESTE KLAY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAD UNVERFERTH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2004-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAD UNVERFERTH
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2003-03-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KERRI ROMES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KERRI ROMES
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2013-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KERRI ROMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMANTHA SCHWINNEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMANTHA SCHWINNEN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2020-03-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,054,823
—
$276,063
$522,221
$1,195
4
—
2023-12-31
$244,901
—
$244,901
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$222,226
—
$222,226
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$208,602
—
$208,602
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$221,261
—
$221,261
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 39003
acs median gross
0
$803
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39003
fmr
0
$839
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39003
acs median gross
1
$619
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39003
fmr
1
$844
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39003
acs median gross
2
$939
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39003
fmr
2
$1,108
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39003
acs median gross
3
$1,030
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39003
fmr
3
$1,338
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39003
acs median gross
4
$1,102
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39003
fmr
4
$1,493
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39003
acs median gross
5
$1,099
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39003
acs median gross
$922
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39003
acs recent mover gross
$979
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45887
acs median gross
1
$593
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45887
acs median gross
2
$1,051
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45887
acs median gross
3
$1,159
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45887
acs median gross
4
$687
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45887
acs median gross
$1,013
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 45887
payment standard 110
0
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45887
payment standard 90
0
$702
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45887
safmr
0
$780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45887
payment standard 110
1
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45887
payment standard 90
1
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45887
safmr
1
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45887
payment standard 110
2
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45887
payment standard 90
2
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45887
safmr
2
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45887
payment standard 110
3
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45887
payment standard 90
3
$1,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45887
safmr
3
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45887
payment standard 110
4
$1,551
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45887
payment standard 90
4
$1,269
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45887
safmr
4
$1,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.