Reads as: riskier than 52.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
BLACKROCK INC
303 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
VANGUARD GROUP INC
324 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.25
3.37
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.76
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.99
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.35
3.50
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
131.4
3.25
0.76
0.45
2.04
2.99
0.0%
2025Q3
92
130.8
3.15
0.66
0.51
1.97
2.89
0.0%
2025Q2
91
131.6
3.17
0.66
0.53
1.98
2.80
0.0%
2025Q1
90
135.2
3.17
0.62
0.51
2.04
2.85
0.0%
2024Q4
92
127.0
3.29
0.64
0.51
2.13
3.06
0.2%
2024Q3
92
118.2
3.54
0.64
0.66
2.25
3.19
0.7%
2024Q2
91
125.2
3.69
0.68
0.63
2.38
3.32
0.0%
2024Q1
91
127.5
3.58
0.60
0.72
2.26
3.15
0.0%
2023Q4
92
127.9
3.71
0.65
0.77
2.29
3.31
0.1%
2023Q3
92
138.9
3.46
0.56
0.70
2.19
3.03
17.3%
2023Q2
91
130.2
3.74
0.58
0.82
2.34
3.37
14.5%
2023Q1
90
120.9
3.81
0.50
0.95
2.36
3.44
13.0%
2022Q4
92
123.7
3.87
0.48
0.95
2.44
3.53
13.5%
2022Q3
92
121.5
3.50
0.37
0.90
2.23
3.25
13.0%
2022Q2
91
122.0
3.44
0.42
0.83
2.19
3.04
13.9%
2022Q1
90
120.7
3.93
0.54
0.89
2.51
3.39
14.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-11-18
2024-10-26
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2024-11-18
2024-10-26
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-11-18
2024-10-26
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-11-18
2024-10-26
Health · complaint
F0740
Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services.
G
2024-11-18
2024-10-26
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-11-18
2019-11-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2019-12-19
2018-09-20
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2018-10-25
2018-09-20
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2018-10-25
2018-09-20
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2018-10-25
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
33
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ABERNATHY, SHERRY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-11-29
current
pecos_ownership
BIDWELL, CHARLES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-06-15
current
pecos_ownership
BLACKROCK INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-01-20
current
pecos_ownership
DODSON, VICKI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANNA, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
HANNA, MICHAEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1990-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIDD, BRIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORGAN STANLEY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-11-08
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTH CORPORATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2002-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NHC-OP LP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2002-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NHC/DELAWARE INC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2002-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHELLY, TIMOTHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-12
current
pecos_ownership
STALLINGS, KEELY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
STALLINGS, KEELY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
USSERY, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2002-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VANGUARD GROUP INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-11-30
current
pecos_ownership
BLACKROCK INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2019-03-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VANGUARD GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
9%
2017-03-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTH CORPORATION
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2002-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2023-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MORGAN STANLEY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2024-11-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN KIDD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES BIDWELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-06-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEELY STALLINGS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEELY STALLINGS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL HANNA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1990-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL HANNA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT USSERY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2002-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHERRY ABERNATHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-11-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY SHELLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VICKI DODSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,529,465
—
$793,775
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$966,852
—
—
—
—
2
—
2022-12-31
$523,603
—
$13,475
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$1,308,993
—
$15,007
$22,114
$9,331
2
—
2020-12-31
$2,427,769
—
$482,740
$1,370,455
$507,146
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 01015
acs median gross
0
$662
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01015
fmr
0
$753
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01015
acs median gross
1
$621
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01015
fmr
1
$757
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01015
acs median gross
2
$807
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01015
fmr
2
$962
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01015
acs median gross
3
$976
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01015
fmr
3
$1,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01015
acs median gross
4
$911
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01015
fmr
4
$1,361
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01015
acs median gross
5
$1,188
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01015
acs median gross
$826
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01015
acs recent mover gross
$1,004
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36207
acs median gross
1
$816
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36207
acs median gross
2
$932
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36207
acs median gross
3
$1,085
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36207
acs median gross
4
$1,263
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36207
acs median gross
$901
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36207
acs recent mover gross
$1,063
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 36207
payment standard 110
0
$935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36207
payment standard 90
0
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36207
safmr
0
$850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36207
payment standard 110
1
$946
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36207
payment standard 90
1
$774
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36207
safmr
1
$860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36207
payment standard 110
2
$1,199
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36207
payment standard 90
2
$981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36207
safmr
2
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36207
payment standard 110
3
$1,617
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36207
payment standard 90
3
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36207
safmr
3
$1,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36207
payment standard 110
4
$1,694
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36207
payment standard 90
4
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36207
safmr
4
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.